NASCAR DFS Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Preview (FREE)

Following Joey Logano‘s pit road-fueled victory at Kansas, NASCAR heads south for the eighth race in the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. A second ticket to the championship could be punched this Sunday at Texas in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. Therefore, let’s jump into this week’s playoff recap and preview Texas for NASCAR DFS purposes on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Playoff Roundup

Via Logano’s aforementioned win, the driver of the No. 22 has stamped his ticket to the Championship 4 at Phoenix. As the laps ticked away at Kansas, I couldn’t help but feel like six other drivers were hoping that Kevin Harvick would catch and pass Logano. Harvick is nearly guaranteed a spot in the finale via his substantial points lead, and a victory would have sealed the deal. Now, with Logano’s win, there is one fewer spot up for grabs.

Speaking of Harvick, he now sits 41 points above the cutoff. Third-place Denny Hamlin saw his points lead over the cutoff shrink after having to pit in the third stage for a tire rub. Now Hamlin is just 20 points above the cutoff. A bad weekend could absolutely tank a season’s worth of accomplishments for the No. 11 team. Your final driver “in” is Brad Keselowski, who holds a slim eight-point lead over fifth-place Chase Elliott.

This is the point in the playoffs where wins and stage points accrued throughout the regular season essentially make or break a driver in their run for the championship. Despite a third-place finish, Alex Bowman sits 27 points behind the cutoff with his lone win at Auto Club and four stage wins. The odd man out is seventh-place Martin Truex Jr., now 31 points behind the cutoff, though his glimmer of hope is waiting in the wings next week at Martinsville — where he won in the Summer. Finally, in eighth sits Kurt Busch, 73 points to the negative after losing an engine this weekend.

Trends on top of Trends

I’m not a fan of weekends like this. Basically, your lineup is made or done in by your first roster decision. Despite finishing second, Harvick inherits the pole at Texas because of his fastest laps. This is problematic because we have multiple trends clashing with the class of driver Harvick is at Texas. Without getting too lost in the weeds, I’m going to attempt to look at each of these factors in lieu of Harvick and reach a conclusion before I put words to breaking down this race for NASCAR DFS later this week.

The Pole Sitter in 2020

I addressed this briefly in last week’s video/podcast with Jason Floyd, but it’s been a bad year for pole sitters in the COVID-19 era. For argument’s sake, we’re going to look at just intermediate tracks. However, this has been true for just about every venue. Without the benefit of practice, teams are solely reliant on whatever setup crew chiefs go with back at their shops. For the most part, crew chiefs are getting it wrong. Even when they get it right, they’re still getting bit by early competition cautions.

Let’s look at what has happened to pole sitters at 1.5-mile ovals since the return to racing.

Charlotte 1: Kurt Busch; 54/405 laps led – finished seventh
Charlotte 2: William Byron; 11/208 laps led – finished 12th
Atlanta: Chase Elliott; 26/325 laps led – finished eighth
Homestead: Denny Hamlin; 137/267 laps led – finished first (rain-delayed into the evening)
Kentucky: Kyle Busch; led 9/267 laps – finished 21st
Texas: Aric Almirola; led 35/334 laps – finished 10th
Kansas: Kevin Harvick; led 9/267 laps – finished fourth
Las Vegas: Kevin Harvick; led 0/267 laps – finished 10th
Kansas: Chase Elliott; led 48/267 laps – finished sixth

Just once has the pole sitter been a smash play (Homestead). Even then, there’s a major asterisk next to that race because it was rain-delayed so long it turned from a standard afternoon event into a night race. That shift flipped the dynamics of that race, especially as the majority of teams set their cars up for a day race in the hot Florida sun. After that, only three times did the pole sitter go on to lead at least 10% of the race.

Kevin Harvick on the Pole

Look back above and see the two times Harvick has been the pole sitter in intermediate races: Nine total laps led with finishes of fourth and 10th. The finishes aren’t surprising; it’s those underwhelming laps led totals. Furthermore, if we look at all the races in the COVID-19 era in which Harvick started first:

Daytona Road Course – 0/65 laps led, finished 17th
Daytona 2 – 6/164 laps led, finished 20th
Richmond – 41/400 laps led, finished seventh

I’m not going to hold the inaugural road race at Daytona or a superspeedway race against Harvick. Variance is never on the side of whoever starts P1 in either of those instances. However, Richmond is worth noting. It showed the woes for the No. 4 existed outside of larger venues when he starts on the pole. Whatever setup Rodney Childers is electing to go with for Harvick on the pole versus not on it appears to be different. That different setup has not worked thus far.

Oddly enough, Harvick has just one win this year at an intermediate oval. That win came at Atlanta, a track he has shown prowess at before with his tire-management skills. Outside of Atlanta, Harvick has an average finish of 8.4 with just 17.5 fastest laps and 26 laps led on average.

Pole Sitters at Texas

This is where things compound. We have the bad short term history of pole sitters during the pandemic. We have underwhelming numbers for Harvick as a pole sitter during this time as well. Furthermore, since Texas was repaved, the driver starting first has led an average of just 53 laps since 2017. That includes 40 laps or fewer for the pole sitter in four of seven races. It seems like fading Harvick makes too much sense not to do.

Yet, here’s where things get complicated for NASCAR DFS. Since Texas was repaved, Harvick is the only pole sitter to actually perform well dominator-wise. He started on the pole in the spring 2017 race and led the second-most laps (77) before finishing third. Flash forward to last fall and Harvick started on the pole, led 119 laps and won the event. In fact, the No. 4 team has won back-to-back-to-back Texas playoff races. Since the repave, Harvick has no finish worse than eighth with an average finish of third. It’s nearly unfathomable how good he’s been here of late.

What Gives?

Texas has become the case of the irresistible force versus the unmovable object. Do we trust what we’ve seen in this anomalous season more or Harvick’s numbers, back when we had things called practice and qualifying? How you approach this paradox will ultimately set the stage for how your lineups perform on Sunday. In this spot before at Texas, Harvick has crushed repeatedly. On the other hand, if you’ve rostered Harvick in back-to-back intermediate oval races, he’s crushed you.

For my money, I want to trust Harvick and his prowess in Texas. Whatever notes Childers has on this place will carry over to Sunday, especially in regards to these Texas-playoff races. For what it’s worth, if Harvick had not lost the lead on pit road to Logano at Kansas, this conversation may be different. He led the most laps and had the best car hands down. He simply lost the lead, and thus the clean air that comes with it. If not for those milliseconds on pit road, our view of Harvick is a bit more positive coming into Texas.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com