Following Denny Hamlin‘s narrow last-lap victory at Talladega, NASCAR heads back to the familiar grounds of Charlotte. The final race of the second round of the 2020 playoffs goes down at the Charlotte road course with the Bank of America Roval 400. Thus, let’s jump into this week’s preview as this year’s schedule gives us a road course race combined with a playoff cut-off.
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Playoff Roundup
If you were watching Talladega live, you saw the playoffs get stirred up several times in the final 10 laps. Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Chase Elliott all found themselves in capital position to take the win. However, after 3 separate overtime restarts, it was Denny Hamlin coming away with the win as he narrowly beat William Byron and Matt Dibenedetto. For the excitement that race brings, it feels like the Roval and Talladega should switch places in the future. Perhaps that’s just me though.
Regardless, via his win, Hamlin is now locked into the 3rd round alongside Kurt Busch. 9-time 2020 winner Kevin Harvick finds himself all but locked into the next round with his 68 point cushion. Roval favorite Chase Elliott sits in 4th 44 points above the cutoff while Brad Keselowski sits in 5th with a 41 point advantage. Martin Truex Junior sits comfortably in 6th (+32) while Alex Bowman finds himself in 7th (+22).
Surprisingly, Joey Logano holds the final transfer spot with a 21 point lead over Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon. Lagging behind in 11th and 12 is Clint Bowyer (-38) and Aric Almirola (-48) who both need a win to see the 3rd round. Neither Kyle Busch or Austin Dillon are in the same positions as Bowyer and Almirola. However, anything short of Logano and or Bowman wrecking out will put Busch and Dillon in a position where they have to win.
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Cutoff Implications
Unlike previous seasons, this year’s version of the Roval race falls as a cutoff race. Thus, win and you’re in the next round of the playoffs. Last weekend at Talladega, anyone could have won that race. Especially, as it became an attrition race with its myriad of wrecks. This weekend in Charlotte, we can’t make nearly a compelling case. Only so many Cup drivers are good at driving anything outside of an oval. That number gets smaller when you consider who actually has the talent to win and not just run in the top-5 or 10 in a race like the Roval.
On the other hand, with this being a cutoff race, we could literally see anything. As in, pit strategies to get a driver upfront. Once NASCAR introduced stages into road course races, it diametrically changed how these drivers raced. No longer were teams attempting to race events backward for the sake of position. Now teams have to decide whether they value the win over stage points. If you chose one you probably took yourself out of the running for another.
Thus, I wonder just what sort of strategies we will see Sunday. Drivers like Rowdy, Dillon, Bowyer, and Almirola are in such holes they need something off the wall to win. These strategies could a long way in changing just what ended up being optimal for NASCAR DFS strategy. At this point, none of us know. However, don’t be surprised if the #14 or #18 teams pull something out of left field.
Roval-2018
This is the third year of racing at the Charlotte Roval. Oddly, it’s only our 2nd road course race of the 2020 season. Odd in the sense of the 6 road courses scheduled for the 2021 season.
Nonetheless, we only have 2 years of historical data to look back at; either for racing expectations or driver’s data. For the sake of clarity, it’s probably a good idea to exclude the first Roval race. Despite having 2 days worth of practice, some of these drivers still found new ways to destroy millions of dollars worth of equipment.
Drivers attempted to play it safe during the first 2 segments. Yet, during the final 49 laps, there were 4 separate yellow flags including the big one that collected 14 drivers with 4 to go. This doesn’t include the infamous spin out between Martin Truex Junior and Jimmie Johnson on the final dogleg. A wreck that would have brought out the yellow flag on any other lap. Altogether 14.7% of that race was run under the yellow flag with 9 drivers not finishing the race.
Roval-2019
Fast forward a year and sadly things didn’t improve. The 2019 version saw more cautions (9) and spent 21.1% of its total laps under the yellow flag. Somehow despite the increase in cautions, fewer drivers finished with a DNF next to their name (5). Due to the influx of cautions, 33 of the 40 drivers finished on the lead lap.
By the end of the 109 laps, Chase Elliott found his way to the lead after leading 35 laps. Elliott nearly put the nail in his own coffin following his single-car wreck on lap 66 when he drove into turn-1 way too hard. Aiding Elliott’s ascension were 4 more yellow flags that reset the field.
NASCAR DFS Implications
With so few laps (109) you might be tempted to think it’s another “start drivers in the back” type of week. While that makes sense on the periphery, it doesn’t pan out when you look at heat maps or optimal lineups. For the most part, drivers finish within a few spots of where they started. Yes, there will be outliers like Elliott who won from 19th last year. However, if you pan over to the “start/finish heat map” on the Race Sheets you’ll see place differential is rarely gained or lost in the double digits.
NASCAR DFS wise, last year’s optimal DraftKings lineup looks like it came from an intermediate oval, sans the score. Our polesitter led 23 laps, garnered 13 fastest laps, finished 6th scoring just 45.25 DK points. Our top 2 lap leaders made the optimal, despite neither leading more than 35 laps. Elliott’s score was aided by place differential and 30 fastest laps.
Our final 3 spots were filled by Clint Bowyer who did nothing more than move from 5th and 4th and 2 place differential drivers (Ty Dillon, Michael McDowell) who picked up 10+ spots.
So, what’s important for DFS? Firstmost, you need to nail the top lap leaders. Assuming of course they don’t wreck out like Keselowski in 2018. Next, you may have to get comfortable with drivers in the top-10 who do nothing more than hold their position or move forward a hair. Finally, you’ll need some place differential. Your hope will have to be for these drivers to maximize their days via attrition and or skill.
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