Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 NASCAR DFS Preview

Following Denny Hamlin‘s strategic path to victory on Sunday at Pocono, the Cup Series and NASCAR DFS march to the birthplace of racing in the United States: Indianapolis. Our nation’s birthday will be capped off with 400 miles around Indianapolis Motor Speedway with the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400.

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Pocono Living up to Its Hype

Remember all that talk about NASCAR giving one of its least exciting tracks a back-to-back weekend, much less, four races in two days? Although I and others may have gone overboard in our distaste for racing at the Tricky Triangle, Pocono did love up to its moniker. Pocono was not good racing. A track that large and that long just doesn’t produce good racing. What about the Truck and Xfinity races, you ask? Face it, those races weren’t good either. The only reason you might look favorably upon those races is because of the late-race restarts.

The Trucks Series showed once again that they shouldn’t be racing here. In theory, there isn’t really anything difficult about Pocono that would test the skill of a green driver in a truck. However, they showed time and time again that these corners were more than they could handle. As far as the Xfinity Series, let me remind you that they’ve only been racing here since 2016. Though more experienced, the Xfinity drivers couldn’t help tangling up everywhere. The constant restarts in both Truck and Xfinity races made for bad television. You don’t want your television audience openly mocking your driver’s talent.

As far as the two Cup Series races, the adage “Clean Air is King” proved itself true once more. Whether Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick, as long as a driver got out front they stayed there. The constant wrecks in the Trucks and Xfinity races gave the broadcast teams something to talk about. The Cup races gave Mike Joy and Jeff Gordon nothing worthwhile to note.

Pocono Part 3

Well, if you enjoyed that type of racing from last weekend, prepare yourself. We’re about to witness Pocono on steroids with 160 laps around Indianapolis Motor Speedway. I bemoaned racing at Pocono because of its length, width and lack of banking. Those same three characteristics manifest themselves once more at Indianapolis.

At two miles long, Indianapolis is just a tad shorter than Pocono but still longer than the vast majority of venues we will see racing at. Width-wise, in the front and back stretches, we can see drivers go three or four wide. As per banking, well, there is none. Remember, this track was built for open-wheel racing like in the Indy Series and not stock cars. Perhaps the reason why racing has been so underwhelming for NASCAR at Indy is the mere fact that this track was never meant to host NASCAR-type vehicles.

Indianapolis Expectations

So what type of racing should we expect to see? Our best bet is to just see another Pocono at Indianapolis. Whoever is on the pole just has to beat the driver starting next to them. As per the Laps Led tab from the NASCAR DFS Race Sheets, someone from the front row led the most or second-most laps in every Indianapolis race dating back to 2013.

	Starting Position	Final Position	Place differential	Total Laps Led	Fastest Laps

S13	2	2	0	73	29
	1	1	0	45	27
F14	10	2	8	70	24
	2	1	1	40	52
S15	6	3	3	75	24
	2	2	0	28	8
S16	1	1	0	149	48

S17	1	34	-33	87	40
	11	2	9	23	0
S18	10	3	7	37	20
	8	5	3	37	15
S19	1	1	0	118	43

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Indianapolis 2019

Side note of total unimportance: The annual Indianapolis race has been held in September the past two years. However, for the foreseeable future, Indy will get the July 4 weekend. Though there is a two-month gap between this year’s race and past races, I don’t think it changes anything about what we see Sunday.

Regardless, let’s go back to last September. Last week we looked back to 2019 Pocono races for expectations and I believe we will do the same for Indianapolis this week. Don’t forget, 2019 was the one race we’ve seen at Indianapolis with the 550-horsepower package. Kevin Harvick started on the pole with Paul Menard beside him on the front row. You don’t have to guess too hard to figure out who beat who off of the line. Harvick did just about everything perfect that a driver could do that day. He would lead 118 of 160 laps with 98.8% of his day spent in the top 15 while also having an average driving position of second.

While Harvick led more than half of the race, he could have done more had the race not been littered with cautions. Had the race stayed greener, I think we would have seen Harvick lead even more laps that Sunday. I believe the reason we saw so many yellow flags was because it was the finale of the regular season. Without the playoffs looming, we shouldn’t see such aggressive driving Sunday.

NASCAR DFS Lineup Construction

Last week I discussed single-dominator builds all across platforms. However, that was before DraftKings decided to slash the salaries of every potential lap leader. If DraftKings decides to do the same for Indianapolis, you’re going to have a hard time getting me away from building lineups built around two lap leaders. While it’s highly likely that we see a 2019 repeat wherein only one driver leads 10% or more of the race, we could still see a second potential lap leader grab enough fastest laps to become a top-six scoring driver.

As far as FanDuel is concerned, we have salaries and it looks like a single-dominator NASCAR DFS build there once again. Not just because of the lack of laps (160) but punts aren’t going to be that viable on FanDuel as none of them really move up. Therefore, striking balance will be key and having a single dominator allows you that balance in your lineups.