A new day dawns and now we’re one day away from the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at Indianapolis. So, let’s get back into this weekend’s top NASCAR DFS picks for SuperDraft, and our strategy for a 160 lap race.
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Place Differential versus Laps Led
NASCAR DFS roster construction on SuperDraft will always come down to two distinct factors.
- How many laps is the race scheduled for?
- How much passing do you expect; whether upfront or through the field?
The answer to our first question is 160 laps. Thus, just 32 laps led points are available in Sunday’s race. As far as question 2 goes, not much… Indianapolis is notorious for being a track that is hard to pass at. In fact, the majority of passes will occur either on the green flag restarts into the 1st/ 2nd corners or on pit road.
So, we’re left with a weird conundrum. There aren’t a lot of laps led bonus points to go around and boost the fantasy output of these drivers starting near the front whom we also expect to contend for the win. Furthermore, we have lots of drivers with place differential upside (.75 for each spot gained on SD) but few will probably see that dramatic of movement.
Thus, I did what any normal NASCAR DFS player/ prognosticator would do at 4 AM and built my own projections model! Below are my picks for SuperDraft based on that model, which will be posted in the Awesemo NASCAR slack channel. These point projections are “raw” to say the least, as they attempt to project not only finishing position but who will lead. Don’t take these points as gospel but as a starting point for your champion and flex picks.
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SuperDraft Champion Options
Clint Bowyer 22nd (1.95X multiplier) – Whether you factor in laps led or don’t, Bowyer projects as my top-scoring driver with 70.25 SuperDraft points. However, when you figure in his champion multiplier of 1.95, Bowyer’s day results in 136.98 fantasy points. I recommended Bowyer in yesterday’s DraftKings/FanDuel article as a core play. Yet, for SuperDraft, he is my favorite play.
Bowyer is the perfect combination of place differential combined with high finishing upside. On the other hand, in order for Bowyer to outscore the following drivers he needs a top-5 finish. If you don’t see that, then it’s better to utilize Bowyer in a flex spot.
Christopher Bell 35th (2.35X multiplier) – Bell figures to be the chalk on SuperDraft because of his starting position. If he finishes around 19th, where I have him projected, then he’ll finish his day with 52 SD points. However, with his 2.35X champion multiplier, he’ll hit 120 fantasy points. If he creeps up the grid even further then he’ll have no issue being the top scorer Sunday.
Ryan Preece 36th (2.55X multiplier) – What will make little sense Sunday is why people will jam in Bell into their Champion slot, yet give little thought to doing the same with Preece. On the surface, Preece has a very similar floor to Bell. I have Preece finishing 21st Sunday picking up 15 positions and scoring 49.25 SD points. While fewer standard points than Bell, his champion multiplier gives him a higher score (125.58).
SuperDraft Flex Options
As always, the above champion selections are all great Flex plays.
Cole Custer 30th (1.6X multiplier) – Custer is the “safe” option who should pick you up 10-12 positions Sunday. With an 18th place finish on Sunday, Custer will score 50 SuperDraft points while his Flex multiplier turns that into an 80 point fantasy day.
Matt Kenseth 21st (1.65X multiplier) – Kenseth has looked like a 47-year-old driver who spent last season hanging out with his family. Since taking over the #42, his finishes have been mediocre at best. However, Kenseth looked passable at Pocono last week finishing 11th and 12th. Perhaps, he’s finally getting comfortable behind the seat of this car or Pocono suited where Kenseth is at in his post-twilight career. Regardless, with a similar finish Sunday, Kenseth can take advantage of his 1.65X multiplier and score north of 80 fantasy points.
Daniel Suarez 37th (1.8X multiplier) – Suarez will continue to be an evergreen fixture of this article segment. He carries a high multiplier reflecting his equipment but always finds a way into the high 20s. At Pocono last weekend, Suarez finished 28th and 26th. I project a similar finish Sunday, 29th to be exact. While picking up 8 spots and finishing 29th isn’t anything special, it’s his 1.8X multiplier turning a 36 point fantasy day into 64.8 SuperDraft points.
What about the Lap Leaders?
By now you may be wondering where are the “dominators” and why haven’t they been recommended. After all, dominators are a key facet of NASCAR DFS lineup construction…
Remember, on SuperDraft, a lap led only adds 0.2 fantasy points to a driver’s baseline score. Yes, the champion and flex multipliers will make these laps led points even more valuable. However, when you flesh these scores out, you see just how non-valuable they are. Especially in a race scheduled to only go 160 laps.
For example, I have polesitter Joey Logano leading 75 laps on Sunday. Fewer than what Kevin Harvick did last year but in line with what previous top lap leaders have done at Indianapolis. Should Logano lead those 75 laps, that only amounts to 15 bonus points. With a 4th place finish, Logano will accrue 52.75 SuperDraft points. However, his Flex multiplier is incredibly low at 1.05X and only turns his day into 71.13 SD points.
If you were to play Logano at the champion slot, his fantasy points jump to 108.4. A great day but still outscored by lots of drivers who do nothing but gain place differential. If you were going to deploy Logano, or any potential lap leader for that matter, you need them to nearly lead the entire race.
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