NASCAR DFS Cook Out Southern 500 Picks for SuperDraft (FREE)

Sunday evening’s field for the Cook Out Southern 500 is set with Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin perched on the front row. With 367 laps on tap, let’s jump into this week’s unique build for SuperDraft and our top NASCAR DFS picks.

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NASCAR DFS Picks: Cookout 500 SuperDraft Picks | Sept. 4

Welcome Back Dominators

After totally disregarding laps led last week at Daytona, we welcome those points back with open arms for Darlington. With 367 laps on tap, there will be 73.4 laps led bonus points up for grabs. When you take those points and start multiplying them for Champion multipliers, the chances of a dominator being the top Champion pick subsequently increase.

However, there is one problem with that train of thought for Sunday. Our most likely lap leaders all have a bottom or near-bottom multipliers. Therefore, those bonus points don’t really see that much-added value. Furthermore, they have very little place differential, if any, to add. For instance, the four drivers I can “safely” project to lead laps either have the minimum 1.6 or 1.65 Champion multipliers.

In turn, in order for a potential lap leader to end up with Sunday night’s highest score, we’re going to need to see true domination. For instance, based on track history and how well he performed in May at Darlington, I’m giving Hamlin 200 laps led. With all of Hamlin’s factors considered, the model gives Hamlin 195.92 Champion points and 128.57 flex points. Those are good scores, albeit, but still trailing two drivers who have nothing to offer but place differential and finishing upside.

The Erik Jones Conundrum

Remember the issue we had with Brendan Gaughan last week? Well, just remove Gaughan’s name and replace it with Erik Jones for Sunday. Not only does Jones have plenty of place differential upside starting 30th, he also has a real ceiling with top-five potential based on his track history with no finish worse than eighth. While his 2.25x Champion multiplier is lower than most everyone else in the 20s and beyond, his number still gives him a great projection.

With a 10th-place finish, which would be his career worst at Darlington, Jones ends his day with 201.82 Champion points. That is a handful of points better than either Tyler Reddick or Hamlin with his 200 laps led. The only way Jones fails to be the top Champion pick is a finish worse than 14th or one of the dominators leading 225 laps. Just like with Gaughan, this decision comes down to ownership and whether you try to gain leverage here or with your Flex picks.

Champion Selections

Tyler Reddick, 24th (2.35x Champion multiplier) — If looking at strictly non-dominators, Reddick is the only driver I can foresee approaching Erik Jones projection. Although Reddick starts higher on the grid, Reddick possesses the same top-five capability but with a better multiplier. The Goodyear tire package running Sunday is the same one used in both previous Darlington races as well as Homestead. Reddick’s finishes in those three races went seventh, 13th and fourth.

Kyle Busch, 15th (1.9x Champion multiplier) — Busch fans have been waiting for this moment: a track where the No. 18 team can take advantage of race notes from two events and apply that to another race. So, if you’re a believer in Busch just needing track time, then this should be the race you jump back on his DFS bandwagon. Starting 15th, Busch has more place differential than the rest of the potential lap leaders.

Three hundred sixty-seven laps is plenty of time for Busch to use his notes from May, have the car set up correctly out of the gate and march his way to the lead. In the Wednesday night Darlington race, Busch came home second. If what happened in May is applicable to this Sunday, then it will be wheels up for Busch and company. The added bonus with Busch this week is that, with his place differential and multiplier higher than any other potential dominator, he doesn’t need quite so many laps led to be the top scorer.

Flex Plays

Ryan Preece, 34th (1.6x Flex multiplier) — After running about where he should for the last month, Daytona bit Preece and the No. 37 team hard with a 37th-place finish. His bad fortune, in turn, gives us a somewhat dependable Flex play, starting in the mid-30s. If you throw out Preece’s 37th-place finish in the Wednesday night Darlington race (engine), then we have finishes of 20th and 22nd. At Homestead, Preece finished 24th, which is where I would project him for Sunday.

Ryan Newman, 31st (1.65x Flex multiplier) — Speaking of another disappointing Daytona finish, here we have Newman in the 30s as well. Although it was four months ago, there is a glimmer of hope for this underwhelming team. At the re-start to racing, Newman finished 15th and 14th at Darlington. While I don’t know if a finish in the mid-teens is in the cards for Newman, 18th to 20th is.

Others; Ty Dillon, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Gase

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com