After countless practice laps, an exhibition race, and two qualifying stints, the stage is set for the 51st Daytona 500 tomorrow. However, before we dive into a few of my favorite NASCAR DFS picks, let’s set the stage properly.
A Little Groundskeeping
If you haven’t already, be sure to check out my primer for the Daytona 500. Whether you’ve been playing NASCAR DFS since its inception or a rookie, I believe the article will help you. The article lays the groundwork for the DFS anomaly that is building lineups for a superspeedway. Using the four main scoring components to each site, I explain what to deemphasize and what to place importance on for rosters. Once you reach the end of the writeup, you should understand why the optimal lineups look the way they do.
Furthermore, if you know what to do but just need the model click here. If you’re new to the Race Sheets let me explain the color-coding on the main page in regards to NASCAR DFS picks.
Purple: Potential lap leaders/ winners (1 max per lineup). Highly volatile but 3/4 past optimal lineups have had the race winner.
Blue: GPP Place Differential (1-2 per lineup). Safer than purple but still volatile.
Green: Cash Place Differential (as many as you want). The safest guys with the highest ceiling. What your cash team should be built entirely from.
Lineup Strategies
I’m not going to waste your time reiterating what I previously spent 2000 words already doing. You should know why you’re picking the drivers that you are. Consequently, why you’re fading drivers that will not end up in your player pool.
I am however going to give you a few roster-building ideas to consider when you assemble your lineups. Combine these with the NASCAR DFS picks I write up below and you’ll end up on some stacks that may help you separate from the pack.
A Clean Race
This scenario seems pretty unlikely. However, be prepared for everything so you’ll be surprised by nothing.
We know these drivers would pretty content to ride around single-file for the majority of the race. It’s what we’ve seen in back to back Clash races. Heck, we even saw it in last year’s 500 for the most part. The tricky part is those last twenty laps when drives start making moves towards the front. In this scenario, drivers mind their manners and know just what their vehicles are capable of.
Yes, the drivers who qualified poorly will move to the front. However, if the good drivers who qualified near the front are falling back or wrecking out it necessarily means the underfunded teams aren’t moving forward either. Furthermore, if drivers are just falling in line for stretches at a time then someone is probably going to lead a majority of laps. Thus, this lineup would want a “dominator” centered around the chalk place differential drivers with a few top-10 or 15 drivers to fill out rosters.
Total Mayhem
We know what the drivers want to do. However, that doesn’t mean all 40 drivers are on board with that idea.
We’ve seen time and again in this package that if you try to block, you will get wrecked. If this race mirrors last year’s 500, then we will probably see lots of wrecking. Especially in the last twenty laps as drivers fight to maintain position and keep that train behind them at bay.
In this scenario, you’re better off chasing safety and that means place differential from drivers 25th and beyond.
Manufacturers United
We know the Fords want to run together. We know the Chevy’s want to run together. Yes, the Toyotas will always run together but that’s more a team thing than a manufacturer thing. Regardless, you should expect to see birds of a similar feather flock together in tomorrow’s race. If manufacturer alliances hold true then it wouldn’t be a shock to see a top-four, five, or six of all the same brand. In the first Duel, the top-four cars were all Fords. In the second duel, the top-three spots were held by Chevrolets.
If you’re unsure of who’s running what exactly, check out this PDF with car makes listed beside the driver.
Teammates United
This is the manufacturer’s stack just narrowed down. Instead of broadly focusing on Fords, we narrow our gaze to Roush-Fenway, Penske, or Stewart-Haas. Instead of just wanting Chevys, we pair Ganassi teammates or the Hendricks stable together. Of course, if you want Toyotas then you have Joe Gibbs.
Hearken back to last year’s 500. It was a Joe Gibbs trio of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Erik Jones crossing the finish line together. If Martin Truex Junior hadn’t wrecked out earlier chances are he would have made it 4/4.
For a full list of teams head here.
Top NASCAR DFS Picks for the Daytona 500
While my player pool won’t be limited to just these plays, these are the drivers who will make up the majority of my player pool come Sunday. In fact, don’t be surprised come lock tomorrow if I’ve comprised my entire player pool, on both sites, of just drivers starting 21st or worse. I’ve tried chasing the golden goose of a driver in the teens who end up on the optimal lineup. Ya know where it got me, with a red upside-down car…
Joey Logano, 3rd ($10500 Draftkings) – If you’re playing 20 or even 150 max, you will want a few shares of Logano on Draftkings. However, only if you’re chasing first. If getting weird for the sake of being optimal isn’t your thing, move on.
Due to the lack of laps, chasing a lap leader on Fanduel just isn’t worth it. However, on Draftkings, he makes perfect sense as a shot in the dark. He’s one of only two drivers to finish on the lead lap in each of the past three 500’s. Furthermore, he starts close enough to the front he could very well lead over half the race.
Denny Hamlin, 21st ($13000 Fanduel/ $10400 Draftings) – Perhaps its just me overthinking things but Denny may come in under-owned compared to expectations. Just below Hamlin, on the starting grid, are four big-name drivers who are all cheaper with more PD upside. However, Denny is the only one who can boast three top-three finishes (including two wins) in the past four Daytona 500’s. If this becomes a simple toss-up between Hamlin and Chase Elliott – I’ll take Denny every time on both sites.
Michael McDowell, 26th ($5000 Fanduel/ $5900 Draftkings) – McDriver has become the consummate professional at Daytona as his career has carried on. Besides the aforementioned Logano, he’s the only other driver in the field to finish on the lead lap in the past three Daytona 500’s. He consistently underperforms in the Duels just to maintain his equipment and march forward in the 500 itself.
If you need me to explain why Ryan Blaney (27th) or Kyle Busch (28th) are good plays, I’ve got nothing for you.
Corey Lajoie, 36th ($4000 Fanduel/ $5500 Draftkings) – What if I told you the driver with the third-best average finish at superspeedway races in 2019 (10.5) started five spots from the rear? What if I told you rostering this driver would be no financial constraint on your salary cap because he’s insanely cheap?
Sound too good to be true right? Well, that’s what we have with Lajoie who might just be a lock play for me on Draftkings. He has amazing upside because of his starting spot and he’s shown a pretty good knack for navigating superspeedways of late. Furthermore, GO FAS technical alliance with SHR means he’ll have quasi-teammates to pair up with as the race progresses.
