NASCAR DFS Picks: Dixie Vodka 400 for DraftKings, FanDuel, June 14

NASCAR’s summer tour through the South continues for a weekend stop in Miami. 267 laps will commence around the oval of Homestead for the Dixie Vodka 400.

Same Song – New Verse

Before we delve into my top NASCAR DFS picks for this weekend’s race – a Surgeon General’s warning if you will.

Any and all Miami-Homestead stats should be treated with a grain of salt. This should have been on everyone’s radar last week at Atlanta. However, it slipped by and didn’t really become a talking point until Sunday afternoon. The stats that we have for Miami do not reflect the race we will see Sunday. Almost nothing about this track will resemble previous Homestead races. The only variable remaining static is the track itself. Everything else about the track has changed.

First, the weather. Postponements have pushed this race until mid-June. It goes without saying that mid-June weather in Miami versus that of mid to late November is not similar.

Second and most importantly, the environment. No, not the weather – we just covered that. I’m talking about the racing environment. May I remind you that for the past several years that Miami is where the champion has been crowned. More importantly. the rule changes have basically dictated that four drivers are in one race fighting one another for the series title. Meanwhile, the other 36 drivers are just the trees in the forest. Perhaps, those other drivers are competing to end the season on a high note. Or just maybe their eyes are on that plane ticket to Cozumel. Thus, you have all sorts of competing motivations dictating just how hard drivers compete.

Flash forward to this Sunday and that motivation factor is out the window. This is now just another race, 1 of 26, that will help determine who does or doesn’t make the playoffs. Therefore, just how differently do drivers drive this race versus what they’ve done in past Miami races? This is all to say, just be careful how much you weigh past Miami performances into your driver evaluations. Yes, I’ll include them myself in this article but I’ll weigh other factors more heavily into my analysis. It’s a good bet if you do the same.

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NASCAR DFS Potential Dominators

With only 267 laps in queue, we’re back to two-dominator builds on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The only issue is I have 8 potential lap leaders in the Race Sheets and they all happen to start 1 through 8. Thus, let’s parse through each one of them in order from least likely to most likely to lead laps.

Alex Bowman 8th ($11,000 FanDuel, $8400 DraftKings) – A high banked oval should be right in the wheelhouse of Bowman, reflecting results of 1st at Auto Club and 2nd at Darlington1. However, Bowman ranks last for me because of the in-between with 18th at Darlington, 19th in the Coke 600, 31st in Charlotte2, and 12th at Atlanta. He has the skill to win this race but lack the consistency to be anything more than a driver you have a few shares of at a low cost on DraftKings.

Denny Hamlin 1st ($12,200 FanDuel, $10,400 DraftKings) – This is Hamlin’s 4th straight pole at Homestead. In his past three races at Miami, he’s underperformed as the polesitter with finishes of 10th, 12th, and 9th while averaging a measly 35.08 DraftKings points. Hamlin has done fairly well in the 550 horsepower package so far with 1 win and 4 top-5 finishes. However, Hamlin is averaging 1.7 laps led per race. Combining that with his track history, I see myself having no Hamlin.

Chase Elliott 5th ($12,000 FanDuel, $11,000 DraftKings) – Elliott thrived at Charlotte with back to back runner up and 1st place finishes. Elsewhere in this package results have been good but not great with 2 other top-5 finishes. However, like Denny Hamlin, he’s leading a putrid 1 lap per race in this package.

Brad Keselowski 3rd ($12,600 FanDuel, $9500 DraftKings) – Mr. Consistency keeps chugging along, although his results at Atlanta were disappointing (9th) . Still underpriced on DraftKings but what’s new? Starting 3rd he could easily move Hamlin out of his way and fight Joey Logano for the early lead.

Joey Logano 2nd ($13,000 FanDuel, $10,700 DraftKings) – Starting beside the man who seems incapable of being a proper dominator at Miami really improves Logano’s odds of leading laps Sunday. Take his starting position with his Miami track history (5th, 1st, 6th, 4th, and 4th) plus his continual lack of ownership – Logano ranks 4th for me.

Kyle Busch 4th ($13,700 FanDuel, $10,100 DraftKings) – Rowdy has run really well at Homestead but then again, when is the last time he didn’t have a championship motivating him? Spoiler warning, that’s a theme you’ll see for the final three drivers. After punching a hole in his front end at Martinsville and finishing in the teens, Busch has seen another price decrease. This is a track Busch has thrived at leading 61.3 laps over the past 3 Miami races.

Kevin Harvick ($14,500 FanDuel, $11,800 DraftKings) – Initially Harvick was going to be at the top of my dominator list but Truex edged him out by a hair. Harvick seems to prefer riding the rail like he did at Atlanta while this track will favor those who go high. More on that later. As far as Harvick is concerned, he owns no finish worse than 4th in the past 6 Homestead races. In this 550 horsepower package, he’s been the best with 2 wins and no finish worse than 10th.

Martin Truex Junior ($13,300 FanDuel, $11,400 DraftKings) – Truex’s numbers in the 550 horsepower package are tepid, to say the least. Chief among those numbers is no wins and just 1 top-5 in 7 races. However, it seems the whole Joe Gibbs Team has been on a learning curve together at intermediate tracks. Perhaps last Sunday at Atlanta was them passing the curve. Hamlin finished 5th. Kyle Busch finished 2nd. Truex finished 3rd after leading the second-most laps and showed he could run any groove. Now that momentum returns to Homestead where Truex has finished 2nd, 2nd, and 1st the past 3 years. He’s got the #1 pit stall, wheels up.

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NASCAR DFS Place Differential – Cash

Like everyone else, when salaries are released I like to see how sites are adjusting. For the past few weeks, the answer has consistently been – not much. However, DraftKings jacked-up Christopher Bell‘s salary from the mid $7,000 range this week all the way up to $9,300. Now, if Bell were the only driver of his caliber starting in the 30s then I could understand the price hike. However, why in the world would I pay $9,300 for Bell when I can get Cole Custer for $6,000? It makes no sense. In reality, Bell should have gone up another $1,000 while Custer joined him on a similar price trajectory. Unless you project a top-5 finish from Bell, you can’t pay $9,300 for him on DK.

Moving up the starting grid, we have our three consistent chalk value plays week in and week out. Michael McDowell (30th) is still underpriced on DraftKings at just $5,200 and is the preferred punt. However, if you have the money to move up $500 to Ryan Preece (33rd) I would do so. On FanDuel, both McDowell and Preece are the same price so the decision is easy – go with Preece. Ryan Preece has a weekly higher floor than McDowell but for the season in this package, McDowell has been better. Rounding out the trio is Ty Dillon starting 32nd. At $6,700, Dillon might be overpriced on Draftkings but at $4,500 on Fanduel, he makes a great last driver in selection.

Though he’ll be chalky, my favorite cash-game play is Tyler Reddick starting 24th. Reddick was amazing at Miami in his Xfinity days winning back to back races and with that back to back championships. He knows how to efficiently ride the fence and he offers plenty of place differential while he’ll be doing so.

NASCAR DFS Place Differential – GPP

On the tournament side of things, it might be worth giving Austin Dillon another look. Dillon has found recent success at Miami with finishes of 8th, 11th, and 11th. Before last Wednesday’s meltdown in Martinsville, Dillon had run well since the return to racing at Darlington. Dillon is still on baby watch so monitor that but perhaps if he suits up we’ll get Austin Dillon with coveted “nappy factor”.

Furthermore, you may want to try and squeeze in a semi-dominator. A driver who gets fastest laps and laps led points but doesn’t quite lead 10% or more of the race. Having to only roster two dominators, plus the immense value under $6,000, is going to leave you in the $8,000 range more than likely. Because of his salary on DraftKings, you may as well consider Alex Bowman but I’ve already discussed his merits.

At a similar price point of Bowman, you have Kurt Busch (10th), Ryan Blaney (11th), and Clint Bowyer (12th). If gauging track history alone, Bowyer is the pick with finishes of 6th, 8th, and 12th at Homestead since 2017. If you weigh this package heavier, then it’s a real toss-up between Busch and Blaney. Busch has been a top-10 machine in 2020 with only 1 finish worse than 9th since the return to racing. Meanwhile, Blaney has a higher ceiling with more laps led and fastest lap points. However, his results at the high banked ovals have been bad, to say the least (19th, 16th, 21st).

Good luck everyone and be sure to check out Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s ownership and fantasy point projections released later on.

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