The field is set for tomorrow’s Fanshield 500 at Phoenix International Raceway with Chase Elliott on the pole. People in Arizona know nothing of daylight savings time. However, the majority of us do. Thus, we’re all losing an hour of sleep or perhaps NASCAR DFS research time. So, let’s get into my top plays for the Fanshield 500.
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Fanshield 500 Spoiler Alert
To be honest, this is something that I should have touched on in Wednesday’s Phoenix preview. I mentioned how this race utilized the high downforce 550 horsepower package last season. Still true this year. What I failed to mention were the changes that NASCAR implemented for that package this season. However, on Wednesday we really didn’t know what these changes would look like race-wise. Now we can see a partial picture coming together.
Rear spoiler 2.75 inches instead of 8. #nascar @NASCARONFOX pic.twitter.com/c1qcaHd64C
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) March 6, 2020
The biggest change begins with the spoiler. In fact, at just 2.75 inches, Jeff Gordon joked in the FS1 booth that it really isn’t a spoiler at all. The second change comes in the form of the splitter.
Front splitter a quarter-inch overhang instead of 2 last year. #nascar @NASCARONFOX pic.twitter.com/yim9Fr2ynL
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) March 6, 2020
These two modifications result in a sheer drop in downforce. Now, cars “shouldn’t” be glued to the track quite at the rate they were last year. On a track like Phoenix, it means drivers can’t stay in the gas longer. Thus, getting in and out of the corners will be more about braking and timing on the gas.
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What Should We Expect to see?
We don’t know yet if the changes will result in better, more competitive racing. However, we do know that speeds have fallen off. Compared to last November’s Phoenix race, top speeds are off by about 3 MPH. Yet, slightly slower cars do not translate into a tighter race or easier passing.
Clint Bowyer talks about the difference in running a smaller spoiler and splitter this weekend at Phoenix: pic.twitter.com/gGi47IgWiT
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) March 6, 2020
After turning 18 laps in the first practice session and 39 in the final session, Clint Bowyer seems confident that these changes will amount to nothing. Granted, if you look at his speed ranks, Bowyer wasn’t running close to the top like SHR teammates Aric Almirola, Kevin Harvick, or even Cole Custer. However, he’s been to Phoenix enough to know what any change feels like. So, if he feels like the modifications won’t result in changes, we probably shouldn’t expect differences either.
Fanshield 500 Draftkings Contest
Before we dive into my top NASCAR DFS plays, I need you to click this link. That will take you to this week’s Awesemo contest on Draftkings.
For all of you clamoring for EMAC to start giving away memberships, join now! If we can’t get a weekly 75 entrant contest to fill, don’t assume Eric is going to start giving away Awesemo memberships for NASCAR contests.
Potential Lap Leaders
Chase Elliott 1st ($11000 Fanduel, $9600 Draftkings) – Chase has one of if not the, fastest cars at the track this weekend. What’s that worth with Harvick starting beside him and Hamlin, Larson, and Blaney all behind? Well, we will find out in due time. However, if we’re going to trust the trends of the past Phoenix races and combine that with Elliott’s speed and skill, we have the combination of a driver who should be a “dominator”. Note, the one time he truly was a dominator as the pole sitter was back at Dover.
Chase’s price is a bit inflated on Fanduel but reasonable on Draftkings for what we need. Thus, if playing cash I would lean on fading Elliott on FD but play on DK.
Kevin Harvick 2nd ($12500 Fanduel, $11300 Draftkings) – When you have a track surrounded by questions of a new package, that may run like a package from a few years ago, the safe bet is to run with the driver who has the most career wins at the said track.
Whatever scheming Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers have been up to seems to be working. While a little slow in the single speed ranking (13), Happy ended up running 1st in the 10 lap interval. He backed that up with 2nd rankings in the 15, 20, and 25 lap intervals as well.
He’s got speed. He’s got history. Lastly, he’s got momentum with top-ten finishes in all three races this year. Harvick would be my cash-lock on Fanduel and my #1 bet for fantasy points on Draftkings.
Assuming you read my preview, you should know where the rest of my prospective lap leaders are in the field. If passing is truly going to be easier, then perhaps we open up our list from top-6 to the top-10. Honestly, I think everyone has a live chance to get to the lead save for Bowman and Dibenedetto.
NASCAR DFS Tournament Place Differential
Brad Keselowski 14th ($11500 Fanduel, $10400 Draftkings) – I don’t know if you want to venture this way in Draftkings cash. However, a viable way to get off two dominator lineups is to swap out one for Brad. With his starting position, he has 10+ place differential upside. Put another way, that’s 40 laps led. In practice 2, Keselowski showed the best long-run speed of anyone from the 10 lap interval and beyond. Thus, moving forward should not be an issue for Brad
Jimmie Johnson 21st ($10,000 Fanduel, $9000 Draftkings) – The 48 Farewell Tour has gotten out of control DFS wise. Yes, Jimmie comes into the Fanshield 500 with back to back top-7 finishes. However, his price on both sites is getting a little out of hand. Thankfully, this week his NASCAR DFS prowess looks appealing thanks to a lousy qualifying attempt. Now we get the four-time Phoenix winner in the second half of the field. He’s very cash viable but don’t feel forced to jam him in.
Christopher Bell 15th ($6300 Fanduel, $6500 Draftkings) – If you’re down in the $6K range on either site and need a cheapie who isn’t a punt – consider Bell. Christopher won at Phoenix in the Xfinity series and spoke well of racing here this weekend. While it’s not likely Christopher passes the drivers in front of him, it is likely he holds steady. And if all he does is hold steady, he could easily outscore the guys priced around him who never move out of the 20s.
In the same vein as Bell, Cole Custer starts one spot behind Bell but had a much faster car in practice. While Custer had no wins at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series, he did rattle off 5 straight top-8 finishes.
NASCAR DFS Cash Place Differential
Austin Dillon 30th ($7600 Fanduel, $7500 Draftkings) – Austin is well on his way to being a permanent feature of this article. Dillon continually finds a way to mess up his Q attempt and becomes the cash game captain of your lineups. He wasn’t particularly fast in practice. However, this is a bet on his place differential. I see at least nine cars in front of him I know he can pass.
Ty Dillon 25th ($5500 Fanduel, $6200 Draftkings) – In the three races, since Phoenix saw its reconfiguration, Dillon has no finish worse than 20th. During qualifying, Ty spoke of races like Phoenix playing into his team’s hands because they can play the tire/ car management game. If the Fanshield 500 comes down to long-term planning, then I feel safe with Ty for cash and a finish somewhere around 17th.
NASCAR DFS Punt Plays
Thanks to the front row only costing $20,900 on Draftkings, you really don’t need to worry about cheap plays this week. In fact, Ty Dillon is probably the cheapest you should need to go on either site. However, if you find yourself in a pinch, may I recommend Ryan Preece starting 20th. Sort of like Bell above, this is a hope and prayer that he manages to stick around and stay on the lead lap. Speed-wise, he’s way ahead of John Hunter Nemechek, Corey Lajoie, or Daniel Suarez. Hopefully, that difference in horsepower is what keeps him near his starting position.
