NASCAR DFS FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

The field is set by random draw for the last time ever, with Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the front row. With a weekend double-header looming, let’s jump into Saturday’s race and break down the top NASCAR DFS picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400.

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The Front Row

Joey Logano started last year’s race on the pole and finds himself here once again. Altogether, this is Logano’s fifth career pole at Michigan. In his previous four starts in first, he has three wins and a 10th-place finish. Altogether as a Michigan pole sitter, he’s led a total of 376 laps. All of these wins have come in the Generation 6 car while racing for Roger Penske.

Is Logano capable of being a dominator, much less the main dominator? Based on his Michigan history the answer is a resounding yes. Based on overall track history for pole sitters, things are definitely pointing up for Logano. However, he has one main obstacle in his path: Denny Hamlin.

If our concern in 2020 turns from track history to momentum, then Hamlin is the play. While Logano hasn’t seen victory lane since Phoenix in March, Hamlin has graced the checkers four times since the return to racing. In regards to direct corollaries (Auto Club Speedway), Hamlin had the better finish of sixth to Logano’s 12th. As far as the 550-horsepower package, the two have been fairly close, but Hamlin’s strength really comes through at night.

If deciding between the two, the trends say go with Logano.

Kevin Harvick – So Good He Get’s His Own Section

Kevin Harvick, 3rd ($14,000 FanDuel, $11,000 DraftKings) – Harvick is an odd driver to figure out at this point. We’ve seen him win four times in the 550-horsepower package this season. Yet, only one of those wins came at an intermediate track (1 1/2 to two-mile). As far as consistency and momentum, Harvick has been hands down the best driver, with just one finish all season worse than 15th. In the past six races using this same package, Harvick has no finish outside of the top five.

On the other hand, Harvick hasn’t exactly been dazzling us with these finishes, at least as far as fantasy output is concerned. While his averages seem fair — 61.6 DraftKings points and 69.3 FanDuel points — it’s his dominator points that raise concern. He’s only averaging 25 laps led in these six races, including nine as the pole sitter at Kansas and 11 at Kentucky from the third position. Perhaps this is over-analysis, but it sure seems like Harvick is masking his days via his finishing points and fastest laps.

If you do want to bank on something with Harvick, it’s his track history. Over the past three years, he’s a two-time winner and nearly won a third before rain shortened the June 18 race. His crew chief, Rodney Childers, has been great at in-race adjustments over the years, and that may be what separates Harvick from the field.

Other Potential NASCAR DFS Dominators

Michigan is a track where tires really don’t matter. As long as a driver can get out front, he can utilize clean air to his advantage and set sailing. Because of this, I think it makes a lot of sense to really spread out your secondary dominator ownership around. My belief is that one of those drivers starting 1-3 leads the majority of this race. However, we could see a scenario where one of the following goes gas-only on a green flag stop and sits on the lead until a stage break.

Ranked in order:

Ryan Blaney
Brad Keselowski
Chase Elliott
Martin Truex Jr.
Kyle Busch
Alex Bowman
Kurt Busch

NASCAR DFS – Cash Differential Options

Christopher Bell, 29th ($9,500 FanDuel, $9,900 DraftKings) – You want to know what the worse sweat in NASCAR DFS is? It’s watching your low-owned Christopher Bell pick drive from 35th to fifth and hoping he doesn’t do something silly and kill his 70-DraftKings day. Well, sweating John Hunter Nemechek was probably worse, but I know who I went 100% on and it wasn’t Nemechek.

Regardless, I don’t have Trucks or Xfinity stats to throw at you this week. Playing Bell in cash is all about his starting position, place differential and my anticipation of a clean race. Michigan will see its fair amount of caution flags, but most won’t happen because of driver error or flat tires.

P.S. in these shorter races, it becomes that much harder for drivers with place differential to not be optimal.

Corey LaJoie, 36th ($4,000 FanDuel, $5,600 DraftKings) – The answer to why LaJoie over Daniel Suarez, Ryan Preece, Austin Dillon, Nemechek, etc. is simple. Not only is LaJoie the cheapest option, but he has the most place differential to gain. I know that is not very scientific, but when you need a floor you don’t need to get lost in the weeds of analysis. Granted, you will probably play two or even three of the previously mentioned drivers, but if it’s the priority pick, give it to the safest one for cash purposes.

NASCAR DFS – Tournament Differential Options

Tyler Reddick, 14th ($8,000 FanDuel, $7,200 DraftKings) – A wide-open venue where the fastest way around is hovering around the wall sounds like Reddick’s sort of track. We’ve seen this pan out in the Xfinity Series, as Reddick won here in 2019. We’ve seen this type of driving style pan out at Michigan numerous times via Kyle Larson and his three straight victories here for CGR.

Starting 14th is going to put Reddick out of a lot of people’s player pools. However, if this is a green race as I anticipate, that means our drivers need to start even closer to the front as positions gained will be few and far between.

Erik Jones, 23rd ($10,000 FanDuel, $8,800 DraftKings) – I don’t care where the Michigan native starts, he’s never ever a cash play. His results are way too extreme on both ends of the spectrum to trust for a floor, even if he starts 23rd. However, that added place differential makes him an even more intriguing tournament play this weekend.

At his home track, Jones hasn’t necessarily shined through. In fact, no Michigan-born driver really does all that well here. But that’s beyond the point. What I want to focus on is what’s happening personally to Jones. He acknowledged Thursday night that he will not return to JGR in 2021 and that Bell is taking his seat. To be frank, we all saw that coming before a single lap turned this year.

Regardless, we need to figure out where Jones is mentally at this point. Either he buckles down, finishes top five and starts catching the eyes of Rick Hendrick, Chip Ganassi, or Tony Stewart, or he succumbs to the final nail in the coffin and allows his “future endeavors” to affect his results. Personally, I’ll fade Jones and think you should too.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com