NASCAR DFS FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks for SuperDraft (FREE)

The field is set for Saturday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan. Thus, let’s get into this week’s top NASCAR DFS plays on SuperDraft and talk about a crowded field for our Champion selection.

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The Impact of 156 Laps

The discussion we have today in regards to dominators will be further exacerbated on Sunday.

First off, scores will be lower. 156 laps in turn mean only 15.6 points for finishing on the lead lap. However, the biggest impact this will have on scoring is on laps led points. As we know, every lap led only results in an extra 0.2 points. So, for the entire race, only 40 bonus points are available for leading laps. Well, who is most likely to lead laps? It’s those drivers starting up front with the smallest multipliers, aka, our dominators.

Does this automatically mean we discount dominator options from being a Champion? Not necessarily. While unlikely because the scenarios aren’t the same as last June, you could see someone lead over three-quarters of the race like Joey Logano did in 2019. To be honest, we really don’t need to see a race play out like that for one of these lap leaders to be the right pick for a Champion. When you average out the top laps led total from the past 14 Michigan races, you get 86 or 17.2 bonus points. Dependent on who you select, that 17.2 could go a long way.

A Fork in the Road for Michigan

Normally, I highlight some Champion picks and then talk about Flex plays. However, here is the obvious bit: If I like a driver as a Champion pick, I necessarily like them as a Flex play too. Therefore, for this race, I’m going to talk about the “safe” Champion picks I like followed by drivers with lower floors but higher ceilings.

Cash Champion Selections

Christopher Bell (2.2x multiplier) – Strike up the broken record because here I am talking about Bell as a Champion pick. This pick was on its way to smashing last week before Bell encountered his first cut tire of the day. By the end of the 301 laps, Bell was 2 laps down after a second flat tire. However, I’m not letting what happened to other drivers impact my view on Bell this week.

The discussion is simple, he is the most realistic driver of everyone starting 20th or worse to actually finish at or better than 15th. No, we don’t have past Truck or Xfinity races to back up this play. It’s just a matter of Bell starting 29th and owning three top-10 finishes in this package this season.

Ryan Preece (2.7x multiplier) – It was encouraging to see Preece actually finish a race last week. Perhaps, I’m a sucker for thinking we can jump back on board, but I’m willing to take that chance. What makes a driver with four DNFs before last week’s 16th at New Hampshire “safe”? For one, a lot of Preece’s mishaps (Indianapolis, Kansas) were due to him being in the wrong place at the wrong time. When someone else takes you out as a result of their own wreck, you can’t fault a driver for that variance.

However, the biggest factor for me is the Champion multiplier of 2.7x. For the sake of perspective, that’s higher than Daniel Suarez (2.4x) or Brennan Poole (2.65x). With such a large number, what you need from Preece becomes smaller compared to Bell. Currently, I have Preece projected to finish 27th. That is not fantastic by any means, but simply picking up eight spots, combined with that multiplier, gives him 113.4 SuperDraft points in the Champ spot. Any finish north of 21st gives him 120-plus fantasy points.

Other selections: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ty Dillon

GPP Champion Selections

Granted, the vast majority of contests on SuperDraft are GPP-style games. However, a lot of people approach their Champion picks with a cash-style idea, trying to project the highest floor. Perhaps, the best way to approach NASCAR DFS on SuperDraft is to instead aim for ceilings.

Ryan Blaney (1.75x multiplier) – The easy dominator selection is just playing the pole sitter Joey Logano. However, at the rate we’ve been going with pole sitters, it might be worth fading Logano on SuperDraft. If anyone not named Logano could rack up the laps led, it’s going to be Blaney. This is the same tire package that Goodyear ran at Las Vegas, Kentucky and Texas. Take a wild stab who was hands down the best driver in those three races: Ryan Blaney, who averaged 45.7 fastest laps and 62.3 laps led in those three events.

Tyler Reddick (1.95x multiplier) – Here is your ultimate “he’s either a Champion selection or you fade him” pick. Reddick has won at Michigan in the Xfinity series, and this track really suits his driving style. With a little strategy, we could see the No. 8 team go no tires, get Reddick out front, and he could maintain the lead. In order for Reddick to be optimal, I believe he will need some laps led points and a top five.

Other selections: Matt Dibenedetto, Cole Custer, Joey Logano

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com