Following Chase Elliott’s redemption at Charlotte, the Cup Series and NASCAR DFS trek south to Bristol. The racing world’s attention will focus on the 0.533-mile concrete oval for the Food City 500.
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Preview Schmeview
This is the portion of the tour where I normally veer off the road for a few paragraphs about the track and racing expectations. However, after watching last Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 not look close to the 2019 version, I’m hesitant to paint with a broad brush. I won’t wander too far away into the weeds but here’s what we know from last year.
Spring 2019 Bristol – Three drivers led 50 or more laps. The top two-lap leaders started 3rd and 7th. Both of those drivers led over 146 laps. The pole-sitter (Chase Elliott) led just 38 laps, ran 15 fastest laps, and finished 10th. Kyle Busch won from the 17th starting position but it took him nearly all race to get upfront. The win was Kyle’s 3rd win at Bristol in his past 4 races.
Fall 2019 Bristol – Five drivers led 50 or more laps, the most since the fall race of 2013. No driver led over 100 laps but two drivers did lead over 90 laps. The top-two lap leaders started 7th and 13th. The pole-sitter (Denny Hamlin) led 79 laps (the third most) while also gaining 33 fastest laps. Hamlin did manage to win the race after a late pass of Matt Dibenedetto. The win was the 4th in 5 races at Bristol for Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota.
While this year’s Food City 500 may not look like last year’s, Bristol racing does adhere to a typical theme. Generally, four drivers lead 10% or more of the race while two hog more than half of the laps. Those top-two lap leaders usually come from the top-7 starting positions. In fact, only 8 of our 28 lap leaders starting beyond the 7th starting position.
The story of the 2019 750-horsepower package was how hard it was to pass – the same should be expected Sunday. Place a premium for dominators on starting position and don’t be afraid to advance your tournament player pool of place differential drivers up the starting grid hoping they stay on the lead lap should we see a green race.
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NASCAR DFS Lineup Construction – Spring 19
With 500 laps on the board, not to mention sunny skies for a change, dominators will be premium. However, just how many because we can only afford so many? In the past half-decade of playing NASCAR DFS, I’ve seen optimal lineups with as few as two dominators and some with up to four! Let’s look at last year’s two Bristol races and see what both races ended up with.
There were actually two optimal DraftKings lineups from last April, both scoring 405.5 points. Matt Dibenedetto and Paul Menard both scored exactly 41 points. However, Matt would have been the chalkier pick due to his 21st starting position while Paul started 9th.
Regardless, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney were your top two lap leaders scoring 96+ DK points. There was one semi-punt with Ty Dillon who finished 15th picking up 9 spots. Clint Bowyer was a semi-hog leading laps (24) and knocking down some fastest laps. Suarez and DiBenedetto were place differential plays that were probably in most cash teams.
The interesting name not in the optimal is race winner Kyle Busch. At $12,900 Kyle needed a load of points to pay off. Although he scored 99.75 DK points making 7.7 value, it still ended up not being good enough thanks to Blaney and Logano both scoring nearly or more points at cheaper salaries.
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NASCAR DFS Lineup Construction – Summer 19
Remember all that talk about four dominators? Well, it didn’t just happen once. This past Summer’s Bristol race saw four dominators make the optimal lineup. Brad, Denny, Larson, and DiBenedetto all led 60 laps, scoring 80 DraftKings points. Hamlin and Kyle made sense based on track history, however, Brad was an off the wall pick.
DiBenedetto was the lottery ticket that almost cashed. With 300-1 odds entering that Saturday night, he would have been strictly a tournament play at $6700 hoping for a top-5 finish. Matt did more than that nearly winning the race after leading 93 laps.
Rounding out the lineup was Hemric as a cheap play who merely started 17th and finished 12th. Bubba was the punt play starting 22nd and finishing 14th.
Once more we see Kyle Busch not in the optimal lineup despite 90.5 fantasy points. At $12,700, the question was value and at just 7.1, it wasn’t strong enough to catapult him past the likes of Brad or Denny.
Top Potential Dominators
Thus, just how many dominators you opt for will be based on your expectations for the Food City 500. If you see an event similar to last Spring where drivers are able to sit on the lead for large swaths of the race – then probably just two. However, as the number of laps led falls amongst the leaders so the drivers who lead 50 or more laps jumps like last Summer.
Our discussion of dominators has to begin with Brad Keselowski on the pole. We had fears of how legitimately a lap leader he could be at Darlington and he went out and led 80/ 293 laps. With Aric Almirola beside him on the front row, I have no questions about who beats who off the line. With his Penske teammates right behind him in 3rd and 4th, we could see the Penske trio play a long game with the race and hold steady protecting themselves and the lead. Furthermore, Brad’s salary on DraftKings is a joke at just $9100.
However, so are the prices of his teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. After leading the majority of last year’s race, and respective 6th and 3rd place finishes this past Wednesday night, you think DK would give them a bump. Yet, Logano is just $10,600 while Blaney continues to get disrespected at $8600. All three Penske drivers should be given strong consideration as dominators. In fact, you could put together a Penske stack and have a good shot at hogging 75% of the laps led with this trio.
For those chasing box scores, the name at the top will be Kyle Busch starting 7th despite his $12,500 price tag on DK. Kyle has won back to back Spring Bristol races, yet his viability will always come down to his price tag. In 2019 Kyle’s laps led totals were down but partly due to bad starting positions handicapping his ability to be upfront. Rowdy starts 7th so getting upfront shouldn’t be an issue. It’s just a matter of how well will crew chief Adam Stevens have his car dialed coming off the truck? We’ve seen the pair make crucial adjustments over the span of this long race – we probably see it again tomorrow as Kyle takes the lead at some point.
NASCAR DFS Place Differential Options
To begin, let’s start with the chalk and it’s Ty Dillon starting 29th. Ty has finished 15th in two of the last three Spring Bristol races and his salary didn’t get adjusted that badly to reflect his place differential. Meanwhile, Ty’s brother Austin got priced down to reflect his 20th starting position. At just $6300 on DraftKings, you get a severe discount on a top-15 driver who has shown some nice stability since Darlington. Both Ty and Austin are safe for cash with upside for tournaments on both sites. However, practically everyone else saw salary increases on DraftKings.
Following the random draw, Christopher Bell and Bubba Wallace start 35th and 36th respectively. For me, neither drivers are DK cash game plays in the mid $7K range, however, their place differential makes them valuable plays. Bell has not lived up to his Xfinity hype as of yet with an average finish of 22nd this season but he did win the Spring-19 Xfinity Bristol race. Meanwhile, Bubba is having a better year compared to 2019, but we just saw him wreck out of both Charlotte races. Wallace does have three top-20 finishes in his past four Bristol races, so perhaps he is the safer option. I will say though, at just $5000 on FanDuel – Wallace is cash viable if you can’t get up to Ty Dillon.
Last Wednesday night’s question was could Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson score enough place differential to be better value plays than the potential dominators from 15th through 20th. Guess what? We’re here again. Both drivers have top-5 potential but is 17+ place differential plus finishing position points going to make them better plays on DK than Logano, Blaney, Truex, or Brad? Be sure to check back later when Alex posts his projections to see who is making better-projected value.
Punting with the Cheapies
On FanDuel, the punt play is Daniel Suarez and it may always be as long as the random draw sets the field. The 96 team will always start 37th – 40th due to their non-charter status. His m.o. has been picking up 10 spots and if you’re lucky, he finishes 25th. That’s fine for the last guy in on FanDuel – especially in cash in a 500 lap race. However, at $6500 on DraftKings, you’re paying for his name equity and starting spot – not what his vehicle is actually capable of.
On DraftKings, the question is do you punt for place differential or finishing position? You can go safer with Cole Custer at $5600 who starts 22nd. Or even cheaper with Michael McDowell at $4900 starting 25th. Or, you can go a little higher up the grid with John Hunter Nemechek at $5500 who starts 18th. Custer/ McDowell are floor plays who probably hold steady. Meanwhile, Nemechek is the ceiling play as riding the rim of these high banks should suit his driving style. In the two Xfinity races at Bristol in 19, JHN finished 5th and 3rd. However, Nemechek could easily live up to his nickname and flame out with negative points.
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