The field is set for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire with Aric Almirola on the pole. Thus, let’s break down the top NASCAR DFS plays for this Sunday’s race on SuperDraft.
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A Weird Draw for New Hampshire
This week’s random draw was a bit of a head-scratcher. No, not the fact that Aric Almirola found his way to the front row again. That’s to be expected for the rest of the 2020 NASCAR season. What did take me by surprise was perennial Champion pick Tyler Reddick getting the highest starting spot he could get. We knew going into the random draw that using Reddick as a Champion was going to be tough with just a 1.9x multiplier. However, getting 13th via random draw takes all of the potential fantasy production out of Reddick’s projection.
Furthermore, two of our Flex staples got bad draws as well. Joining Reddick on the 7th row will be fellow rookie of the year contender Cole Custer in 14th. Custer’s flex multiplier of 1.5x still left lots of meat on the bone. On the other hand, drawing 14th gives Custer very little place differential to gain while having lots to lose. The random draw also saw Michael McDowell get a bad starting position for SuperDraft in the 18th position. McDowell has become an interesting tournament option on FanDuel and DraftKings, but for SuperDraft he’s lost appeal as a Flex play.
Regardless, let’s sort this field and see where my top Champion and Flex plays abide.
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Christopher Bell, 35th (2.1x Champion multiplier) – With this week’s unfortunate draw, we’re left with only a few real viable choices for our Champion. You either chase a lap leader, as I’ll get into later, or you take the safer route and roster Bell starting 35th. Bell saw his multiplier increase after a few weeks, and now he’s back in a range where he can capitalize on his starting position. We have no previous track history to gauge Bell by, but know in his two Xfinity starts at Loudon, he won both events, leading 279 of 400 combined laps.
If you’re looking to get away from the Bell chalk, you could look to Corey Lajoie (2.4x) in 33rd, John Hunter Nemechek (2.35X) starting 36th or Daniel Suarez (2.45x) in 37th. Yet, the question you have to stare in the face is does any one of those three have the ceiling of Bell in terms of actual finishing position? Honestly, if you tell yourself a story where they approach Bell’s fantasy production ceiling, it will be due to Sunday’s race becoming an attrition race or Bell simply wrecking out.
Pick a Lap Leader – With 301 laps on tap, there are 60.2 laps led points available. That is not a lot when compared to Martinsville or Bristol. That said, it is more than enough to make us consider rostering a dominator in the Champion spot. On average, the top lap leader at Loudon has led 117 laps per Summer event. That 117 laps become an extra 23.4 bonus points. When you start adding these bonuses to drivers with their Champion multipliers, it makes them attractive as possible selections.
Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola all deserve their due as Champion picks. However, I want to highlight the driver who has simply been the best in the 750-horsepower package in 2020: Joey Logano. In all three races using the 750-horsepower package, Logano has led a multitude of laps. He won at Phoenix, should have won at Bristol and finished fourth at Martinsville. Of all the potential lap leaders, Logano has one of the highest Champion multipliers of 1.9x. A top-six finish combined with 117 laps led nets Logano 176 SuperDraft points.
As per previous articles, every Champion selection makes a great Flex play save for the lap leaders.
Ryan Newman, 22nd (1.6x multiplier) – The hate on Newman has gone too far. For a driver in equipment not as good as some but better than most, getting Newman at 1.6x in the Flex spot is a steal. For comparison, Matt Kenseth is sitting at 1.4x as a Flex play. Outside of Pocono and Indianapolis, Kenseth has been dreadful in his 2020 return. Regardless, we get Newman at a great multiplier at a track he’s had recent success at with back-to-back top-10 finishes. Furthermore, in the most recent point race using this 750-horsepower package, Newman finished 12th.
Matt DiBenedetto, 19th (1.4x multiplier) – instead of opting for the chalk plays of Ty Dillon, Austin Dillon or even Jimmie Johnson, let’s talk about DiBenedetto. His lowish multiplier may keep him out of players periphery, but he makes a great play based on upside. We all know about DiBenedetto’s prowess at Bristol. However, he has rounded into a good short track driver in this package. At Phoenix he finished 13th and at Martinsville seventh. Last year at New Hampshire, he came fifth while driving the No. 95. The stars are lining up it seems for DiBenedetto to bring home another strong finish and help cement his place towards making the playoffs.
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