The field is set for Sunday’s race at Darlington with Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick on the front row. Therefore, let’s get into the top NASCAR DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington this Sunday.
Goodyear 400 NASCAR DFS Picks, DraftKings + FanDuel
Brad Keselowski, 1st ($12,500 FanDuel, $10,000 DraftKings)
Forecasting driver’s performances for this Sunday is tough. The goal is to find a sweet middle-ground between past Darlington history in the 550-horsepower package and how they’ve done in the 750-horsepower package of late at high-tire wear venues. For most people, nailing the place-differential options is going to be easier than picking this week’s lap leaders.
However, with this being the 750-horsepower package, gamers need to return to one of our main tenets in that setup. If a driver has any hope of being the main lap leader, the closer they start to the front the likelier they are to actually lead. In that case, what better place to start than our polesitter Brad Keselowski who was in this same position last year in our first post-COVID NASCAR race. From the pole in the Spring, daytime 2020 Darlington event, Keselowski led 80 laps. Combining that Darlington race with the two Dover races in 2020, the past New Hampshire race, and the past two Richmond races; Keselowski is leading the most laps on average at 81.7.
Furthermore, going back far enough to a time in NASCAR when there were not different packages for different venues, Keselowski won the 2018 Darlington race. No matter what, it’s going to be hard to get away from Keselowski on the pole.
Kevin Harvick, 2nd ($10,500 FanDuel, $9,600 DraftKings)
Is it worth returning to Harvick following his second-place finish at Kansas last Sunday? In cash, not a chance but in tournaments, yes. Besides the salary discount on both sites, especially FanDuel, this type of track was Harvick’s strong suit last season. The closest corollary for me to Darlington is Dover, if you just take those five races in 2020, Harvick had three wins with 45.6 fastest laps and 84.8 laps led per race. He finished in the top five in all five races, despite an average starting position of 12.2.
The only hiccup in this equation is what setup is Rodney Childers going to elect to go with back at the shop? Speed has been a major issue for the No. 4 team, and Stewart-Haas in general. If you take all 2021 races, save for Bristol-Dirt and the superspeedway events, Harvick is averaging just 6.6 fastest laps per race with zero laps led. If 2021 is any indicator, there may not be supposed discount for yet another top-five finish with few dominator points. However, with how well Harvick excelled last year at high-tire wear venues around this size, he’s worth taking a shot on in tournaments for the Goodyear 400.
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Martin Truex Jr., 4th ($13,500 FanDuel, $10,300 DraftKings)
Mother’s Day is shaping up to be hot in South Carolina, as the forecast is projecting a high of 86 on Sunday. This should see Darlington become hot and slick, losing whatever grip it may have. If this forecast plays out, this will play directly into the hands of Truex. Not only has Truex been one of the best drivers in the 750-horsepower package this year but he has been at his best when track management comes down to dealing with hot and slick conditions.
If people overvalue past Darlington finishes, there could be an ownership leverage point here with Truex as his best finish since 2018 is sixth last May. However, among Sunday’s field, Truex averages the most laps led and fastest laps at Darlington despite dismal finishing positions. Now he is in a package he has outright excelled in with track conditions that are very favorable to his driving style, Truex could lead the most laps Sunday.
Austin Dillon, 9th ($7,800 FanDuel, $7,500 DraftKings)
As DFS players search for a synthesis between Darlington history and the 750-horsepower package, landing on Denny Hamlin as a potential dominator will be easy. However, how many people are going to see Dillon’s three top-11 finishes in his past four Darlington races, and match that with what he’s done thus far in the 750-horsepower package?
Whatever one wants to attribute it to, Dillon has done surprisingly well of late in the high horsepower, low down-force package with top-15 finishes in all three 2021 races. Combining races with Brad Keselowski above, Dillon actually stumbles his way into dominator points with a top-11 average finish. This creates what should be the perfect storm for Dillon to hold position all afternoon and hopefully finish yet another race around the top 10 while sneaking away with some dominator points in the process.
In this same line of reasoning, you can pivot off Dillon into Matt DiBenedetto in tournaments. Similarly priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel, DiBenedetto offers you nearly the same upside as Dillon. DiBenedetto has been running down a string of top-12 finishes of late. His path to being optimal entails another top-10finish, yet based on how he’s run of late, it’s not that farfetched of a scenario.
Christopher Bell, 21st ($9,000 FanDuel, $8,600 DraftKings)
The $8,000-$9,000 range on DraftKings is a riddle this week. In fact, it may be more about picking a driver through the process of elimination than anything. Kurt Busch feels like a driver with limited ceiling and floor currently. In no way is Erik Jones playable until he’s cheaper or back at a superspeedway. Aric Almirola makes sense, especially for cash-style games, as long as he stays out of trouble. William Byron needs another top-five finish, with some dominator points sprinkled in just to be close to sniffing value.
That leaves Bell, who though priced up, possesses the best actual finishing position potential of everyone in this range. In the three 2021 races using the 750-horsepower package, he has top-10 finishes in each race. Joe Gibbs has been the class of the high-horsepower package thus far; that should continue with Hamlin and Truex leading tailed by Bell up top competing for a fifth through 10th-place finish.
Ryan Preece, 29th ($4,500 FanDuel, $5,900 DraftKings)
Conceivably, Preece is the lowest you should see yourself going in most lineups. With a two-dominator build on both websites, you shouldn’t need to dip into the punts, However, finding any sort of value you feel comfortable with stinks this week. So in cash games the cheapest driver should still be in decent equipment to grab some place differential. Especially, with this being the 750-horsepower package and under-funded teams performing so terribly in it. In lieu of that, Preece offers a floor at that salary with three top-22 finishes in three of his past four Darlington races. His lone bad finish was a mechanical failure.
J.J. Yeley, 34th ($4,800 DraftKings)
With fewer than 300 laps, it’s hard to advocate for any of these punt plays on FanDuel. However, on DraftKings, one could make the case for Yeley should you need the salary relief. With the anticipated hot and slick conditions, combined with this being the first time they will have run the 750-horsepower package at Darlington, Sunday could be filled with wrecks and cautions. Should that scenario play itself out, then these punts will gain place differential through sheer attrition.
In that case, look to Yeley to be atop the punts both on the leaderboard and value chart. Yeley has raced at Darlington in the past five races here, each time actually finishing the race somewhere between 28th and 32nd. Admittedly not fantastic but among this class of drivers, Yeley feels like the safest bet. That being said, if this race does morph into a wreck fest, your best bet may be to mix and match all of these drivers in hopes of nailing the one who finishes top 25 and allows multiple dominators as well as high-priced place differential.
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