The field is set for Sunday’s race at the Charlotte Roval with Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski on the front row. Let’s dig into the top NASCAR DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Bank of America Roval 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course.
Bank of America Roval 400 NASCAR DFS Picks
Chase Elliott, 8th ($10,700 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)
Sunday’s outright betting favorite, +200 at BetMGM and +220 at DraftKings Sportsbook, Elliott is where lineups should begin as far as potential lap leaders are concerned. He has won back-to-back races at the Charlotte Roval leading totals of 35 and 27 laps in these events. Stadium courses seem to suit Elliott as he won the inaugural Daytona Road Course race after leading 34 laps and then nearly won the Daytona Road Course event back in February, leading 44 laps, before the late caution for rain saw him get shuffled late and finish 21st.
With just a nine-point cushion over Kevin Harvick for the final playoff spot, Elliott will need to be at the top of his game and considering his road racing prowess (seven wins in the past 14 road races) he is more than capable of racing to the front and celebrating in victory lane following the 109 laps. Elliott sits atop the board in the Top Drivers Tool with this week’s highest chance to be a top-two dominator.
Kyle Larson, 10th ($10,300 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)
2021 was supposed to be the year Chase Elliott won all the road races and show he was a king among men at turning right. However, one of the spoilers at this party has been his own teammate Kyle Larson who has won two of these six road races. Larson’s two victories, in road courses, came at tracks he had previous experience at – Sonoma and Watkins Glen. With two races under his belt at the Charlotte Roval, it is conceivable to see Larson be one of Sunday’s top lap-leaders, especially with 2018 in mind. In the first race at the Roval, Larson led 47 laps before finishing 25th that day. Box score hunters will probably forget that Larson was part of the multi-car melee that collected more than a quarter of the field with three laps to go.
For what it is worth, Larson leads the Series in total laps led (116) having led 27 or more laps in three of the past four road races. Larson is currently the second-highest outright favorite at BetMGM at +450. Yet, Larson is projecting to be higher owned than Elliott despite this gap in betting odds.
Erik Jones, 17th ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
There is a plethora of place differential options to choose from this week and in a road course race, they can all expect to carry heavy amounts of ownership. Finding differentiation is going to depend on how far up the starting grid DFS players are willing to go as they search for drivers with top-10 potential at much lower ownerships. The driver that should come in at scant numbers, relative to his potential, is Erik Jones.
Driving the No. 43 puts a stink on Jones most weeks unless it is a superspeedway event, or he starts so far back in the field that it’s tough for him not to be optimal given he picks up place differential. In a road course race, especially a race at the Roval where speed is key, this should mean staying away from Jones. However, Jones has continued to run well in road courses this season with just one finish outside of the top-20. Playing Jones is a bet on him holding position and possibly picking up a few spots come to the end of the race.
Matt DiBenedetto, 30th ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Due to Sunday’s starting grid getting based on Talladega results, there are plenty of options in the 20s and 30s. Outside of A.J. Allmendinger (mentioned below), DiBenedetto is the driver with the highest place differential upside as well as finishing position potential. In his first two Roval starts, DiBenedetto came across the line in 13th and 11th before a disappointing 22nd-place finish last year. As far as this season, his first three road courses were a microcosm of his season with finishes of 37th, 23rd, and 23rd. However, following his crew chief change, he has rattled off three straight top-11 results.
A.J. Allmendinger, 33rd ($11,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)
The two-time Xfinity winner, at the Charlotte Roval, makes another spot-start for Kaulig Racing this Sunday. Unlike previous starts at COTA, Road America, or the Indy Grand Prix, Allmendinger’s viability does not come down to his ability to lead laps. Although he should be expected to. This is a very similar scenario to the Daytona Road Course race, Allmendinger finds himself starting way back in the field. It is only a question of can he gain enough place differential to merit his salary? He did so in that race with legitimate questions as to just how good the No. 16 could be. Now with multiple races from Allmendinger in this vehicle, not to mention Kaulig in general, DFS players should know this is very reliable equipment with a more than capable driver.
Furthermore, Allmendinger does not have to worry about the impact of the points of his results like Larson, Elliott, or any of the other playoff drivers. The mission of Kaulig Racing has been simple in their limited Cup starts – they are trophy hunting. Just as he did in the 2019 Xfinity Roval race, Allmendinger can race this event in such a unique way, versus the field, to put himself in a position to win this event as he did at the Indy GP. Do not be shocked if he goes off sequence early, finds himself out front knocking down laps led point as well as fastest laps, and ends his day with the highest fantasy point total across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Outside of our potential dominators, Allmendinger ranks highest in top-six percentage according to the Top Driver Tool.
Joey Hand, 36th ($6,200 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel)
Normally, a sports car driver racing in lower-tier equipment does not move the needle in road races anymore. Kyle Tilley and Scott Heckert have been ho-hum drivers in their limited starts for Rick Ware and B.J. McLeod. While these drivers probably have more skill, in these road races, than half of the field – the lack of horsepower in limited equipment keeps their upside capped outside of severe attrition.
That was the initial feeling for Hand when it was announced he would be driving for Rick Ware this week. Yet, Toby Christie broke the news on Wednesday that this car will have Stewart-Haas equipment. This-in-turn makes Hand very interesting in tournaments, given his background in IMSA, American Le Mans, and Grand-Am. He could very well race his way through the field and finish in the top-20. Or this could end up being nothing. His projected ownership suggests people are still very leery of Hand.
The best tale-tell sign will be how the betting markets have reacted after this word surfaces to the forefront about Hand’s equipment. Currently, Hand is +100000 at BetMGM, if he moves past Justin Haley at +50000 then the sharps may believe in his viability.
Timmy Hill, 39th ($4,900 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel)
Cheap sources of potential place differential are going to be valuable on Sunday, especially in tournaments for those who are trying to jam in two dominators plus A.J. Allmendinger. A driver that might catch eyes, as a source of salary relief, will be Timmy Hill and his 39th starting position. In Hill’s limited starts this season, he has started dead last in both races (Daytona Road Course, Indy GP) and was able to race his way into the top-30 by the end of the race. However, these finishes are riddled with context. Hill managed to benefit in both races from attrition that saw him finish despite an average running position, in both races, situated in the mid-30s. To put it bluntly, Hill landed on the right side of variance and how his box score numbers make him, and the No. 66, look competent.
If Hill is going to be a value on Sunday he is going to need what he benefited from in those two previous road course races – attrition. After three years of racing at the Charlotte Roval, banking on attrition is a losing bet as drivers have gotten used to this venue. In last year’s race here, in which Hill finished dead last with an engine failure, 32 of the 38 cars finished on the lead lap and no one ended the day due to a wreck.
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