The field is set for Sunday’s race with Brad Keselowski and William Byron on the front row. Thus, let’s get into this week’s top DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS picks for the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Buschy McBusch Race 400 NASCAR DFS Picks
Brad Keselowski, 1st ($12,500 FanDuel, $9,700 DraftKings)
If you choose not to just chase place-differential, you’re going to need an early dominator from among the drivers upfront. My pick is the former Kansas winner, who happens to be starting on the pole Sunday. With the pole position, Keselowski gets what has generally been an enviable spot in the lifespan of the Generation Six car as the pole-sitter has been a top-two dominator in 11-of-16 races at Kansas since 2013.
In this 550-horsepower package, Keselowski has a win, four top-5 finishes and eight top-10 finishes in the past nine races at low tire-wear venues. In the most recent race in this package at a low tire-wear track, Keselowski finished second at Las Vegas.
Ryan Blaney, 7th ($10,000 FanDuel, $9,500 DraftKings)
If you’re into fading the pole-sitter, you may be tempted to start scrolling down the starting grid to find someone else as a possible lap-leader candidate – especially after finishing fifth in Las Vegas and winning the Atlanta race. However, I caution you on chasing Blaney at Kansas. To begin with, Blaney has only managed to finish on the lead lap in three of the past six Kansas races. In three of his lead-lap finishes, he does have two seventh-place finishes, yet those were both in races that were much cooler compared to what we will see on Sunday.
Remember the script with Blaney, he excels in this package when the grip is high and the temperatures are cooler. With temperatures approaching 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies, Kansas should be relatively slick – neither scenario benefiting Blaney.
Kyle Busch, 9th ($10,500 FanDuel, $8,600 DraftKings)
As you scroll past the inflated salaries on the top-tier drivers with place differential, it’s easy to lose sight of Busch in the $8,000 range. To be honest, this is the cheapest I can remember Busch being, and this salary intrigues me especially for someone a lot of DFS players have given up on. Let us remember, Busch’s only victory in 2021 came at the very similar Texas – another intermediate oval that was just recently repaved. Thus far in 2021, we’ve seen Busch finish 10th at Homestead, third at Las Vegas and fifth at Atlanta.
So, the assumption is we should see another top-10 effort out of Busch. What about the potential for dominator points though? That’s the tough case to sell, especially as we haven’t seen him lead outside of that Texas race. Plus, he’s not so far forward to take advantage of his starting position. Thus, the deck is stacked against Busch but at that salary, you don’t need much and he can easily make value with another top-10 finish. Make sure to check the Awesemo NASCAR DFS projections to see how Busch rates out as a value play before Sunday’s race.
Anthony Alfredo, 22nd ($3,500 FanDuel, $4,500 DraftKings)
I’ve been told by NASCAR DFS Twitter that these salaries are appropriate for Alfredo. The FanDuel salary I get, it’s where he’s been hanging out for weeks. However, paying the minimum salary on DraftKings for Alfredo is egregious. This car is not the No. 00 of StarCom Racing. Alfredo, however green he might be, is not Quin Houff.
Yes, Alfredo is destined to fall backward. However, I can still project Alfredo for a finish around 24th to 27th, which still makes him an NASCAR DFS value pick for this salary. In Alfredo’s three starts in the 550-horsepower package, he finished 24th at Homestead, 24th at Las Vegas and 27th at Atlanta. If he finishes in that range once again, he’ll still be worth rostering at both of these salaries. If nothing else, this is a week where we need every ounce of salary relief we can get to fit in the high-priced studs in the Awesemo NASCAR DFS rankings. Alfredo makes that possible.
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Erik Jones, 27th ($7,000 FanDuel, $7,800 DraftKings)
Before last fall, Jones had been a machine at Kansas, knocking down top-10 finishes regardless of the weather or time of year. Obviously, going from Joe Gibbs to Richard Petty is a step down in equipment. However, in our close corollary track of Las Vegas, Jones finished 10th. Without the performance demands of the 750-horsepower package, that we’ve seen this team struggle with, I expect a rebound for Jones and another top-2o finish.
Kyle Larson, 32nd ($13,500 FanDuel, $11,300 DraftKings)
This salary may shock you but consider what’s baked in. We get Larson, a driver who ran well at Kansas in the past in the No. 42, starting 32nd with legitimate upside to lead laps. If all Larson does is finish top-5, he’ll score near 70 fantasy points. If he ascends to the lead as he did at Las Vegas and Atlanta, he could approach 100 or more fantasy points on DraftKings. All we need in cash is a top-10 finish with fastest laps. As for tournaments, if Larson is going to be optimal he has to lead laps, something I believe he’s fully capable of in the No. 5.
For what it’s worth, this same analysis can be applied to Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano. We know they have the upside to grab place-differential. However, can they lead enough laps wherein they go from making value to exceeding that threshold? You’re more than likely going to land on two of these three. Your selection dictates who you project as they most likely lap leaders.
Austin Cindric, 38th ($6,200 FanDuel, $6,700 DraftKings)
It only makes sense that DraftKings decided after just two subpar performances that Cindric should be priced around Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain. This will be by far Cindric’s easiest test so far, as he should be able to easily ascend to the top-20 and shouldn’t be at risk of losing the lead lap unless he has mechanical issues or wrecks. Even if all we get out of Cindric is a top-20 on Sunday, it will still be fine, thanks to this decreased salary. I hesitate to call him a core play based where he’s bound to land in the Awesemo NASCAR DFS ownership projections but it’s hard to envision a scenario where Cindric isn’t in the optimal lineup for this weekend’s Buschy McBusch Race 400 on DraftKings or FanDuel.
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