The field is set with Kyle Larson and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on the front row. Therefore, let’s jump into the top NASCAR DFS plays, on DraftKings and FanDuel, for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Coca-Cola 600 NASCAR DFS Picks, DraftKings + FanDuel
Kyle Larson, 1st ($14,000 FanDuel, $11,300 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP (Dominator/ Core Play
The best driver in the 550 horsepower package starts first… sounds like a no-brainer. Although Larson’s past results at Charlotte haven’t been fantastic, it’s hard to come up with a reason to not get behind Larson. He’s been an animal in races featuring the low horsepower package with one win, two other top-five finishes, and a staggering 127 laps led per race.
Among Sunday’s field, Larson is the only driver with an average running position situated fifth or higher. Larson’s driver rating in these four races is 132.6, the next closest driver (William Byron) comes in 20 points lower at 112. The speed that we’ve consistently seen from Larson in this package (61.5 fastest laps per race) carried over into practice as he showed both fast short-run and long-run speed.
The only scenario for fading Larson is based on ownership or the bad luck past pole sitters have had the past year. Fading for ownership is understandable, however, fading because where Larson starts is a harder sell this weekend. With practice under his belt, Larson showed that he has the actual speed to back up his starting position. Cash and tournament lineups should all begin with Larson on Sunday.
Chase Elliott, 3rd ($13,000 FanDuel, $10,500 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP (Dominator)
Momentum knows no greater friend in NASCAR than Chase Elliott. Following fifth at Kansas, seventh at Darlington, third at Dover, and a win at COTA, it’s time to keep striking while the iron is hot. Elliott has notoriously been a streaky driver throughout his Cup career. If he’s riding a hot streak, it shouldn’t let up at a track where Elliott’s past three finishes were first, second, and fourth.
Alex Bowman, 7th ($10,000 FanDuel, $9,400 DraftKings) GPP
Ryan Blaney, 12th ($11,000 FanDuel, $9,000 DraftKings) GPP
Following a storm system moving through the Carolinas, Sunday’s forecast looks to be cooler compared to race conditions on either Friday or Saturday. Should projections hold, the sun will briefly make an appearance in the afternoon. However, the temperature should never breach above 70 degrees with mostly cloudy conditions. If this holds up, the track will remain cooler, something to be very aware of at a track like Charlotte that is very heat sensitive.
With cooler temperatures, the grip will increase, and drivers like Alex Bowman and Ryan Blaney will benefit. Think back to the Atlanta race, a race that was supposed to be sunny. The sun never really broke out and the hot and slick conditions many were expecting never came to fruition. Kyle Larson led the majority of that race but it was Blaney who made a late charge for the win. Meanwhile, Bowman had his best finish of the year in the low horsepower package finishing third.
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Joey Logano, 16th ($8,800 DraftKings) GPP
Logano is oddly underpriced this week on DraftKings, even cheaper than his Penske teammate Ryan Blaney. With this reduced salary, what DFS players need from Logano in fantasy points is minimized, especially when Logano has place differential upside. That said, Logano carries risk as his splits in this 550 horsepower package have been worse compared to the 750 horsepower package. Thus far, Logano only has one top ten finish through four races at intermediate tracks with an average finish of 16.5.
Kyle Busch, 20th ($13,500 FanDuel, $10,200 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP
What Busch lacks in appeal as an early dominator he more than makes up with place differential upside. Thanks to his pitiful qualifying effort, DFS players get a potential winner starting in the middle of the field. In Busch’s rebound season, off his dreadful 2020 campaign, he’s shown a higher floor and ceiling in the 550 horsepower package with a win and no finish worse than tenth. Combine that with averages of 114 laps led and 51 fastest laps over his past four Charlotte races and Busch is a driver with a high floor as well as a high ceiling.
Chris Buescher, 27th ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,700 DraftKings) Cash/ GPP/ Core Play
Quick, who ranks eighth in average finish so far in the four intermediate track races in 2021? Yes, it’s surprisingly Chris Buescher who has shown upside and consistency that drivers from larger, more well-funded teams have yet to discover. Through those four races, Buescher has finished within the top ten twice and has no finish outside of the top 20. Now he brings the best performance he’s had in his Cup career to a race he’s finished with back-to-back top-ten finishes.
If there is cause for concern for Buescher it’s his lackluster practice numbers. Whether looking at long run or short run times, Buescher never ran better than 21st. It’s even more eye-raising when his teammate, Ryan Newman, ran top-15 numbers in long and short-run intervals in practice. However, with 400 laps, above par numbers for the season, and good track history, don’t lose confidence in Buescher based on a 50-minute practice session in what could be fairly different racing conditions.
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