The field is set for Sunday’s race in New York, with Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano on the front row. Let’s delve into the top NASCAR DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Go Bowling at The Glen.
Go Bowling at The Glen NASCAR DFS Picks
Brad Keselowski, 1st ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
Joey Logano, 2nd ($9,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)
Ryan Blaney, 3rd ($9,200 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel)
The Penske trio is listed together as potential dominator plays due to three factors. First off, all three of these drivers have shown the propensity to excel in road courses. All three have victories at road courses in their Cup careers. Keselowski and Logano have even won at Watkins Glen before, while Blaney’s best finish was fifth two seasons ago.
However, the second and biggest factor in their favor is their starting positions. As touched upon in this week’s NASCAR DFS preview, since the 2004 season only twice has a winner at Watkins Glen started outside of the fourth row. In the past three years, the winner has come from the first two rows. Coincidentally, the top two lap leaders from those past three Glen events have all been starters first, second or third. Track position really matters to the prospects of a driver winning and accumulating dominator points for DFS, and all three Penske drivers are in prime position to be the top lap leaders.
Finally, Watkins Glen places emphasis on horsepower, more so than technical skills like Sonoma. With performance in mind from New Hampshire, why not continue to lean on the race team that showed it had plenty of horsepower in the last race to utilize this high horsepower package?
In terms of ranking the three, it goes Logano, Blaney, Keselowski, as Logano has the third-best chance of any driver in the field to be a top-two dominator, according to Awesemo’s Top Drivers Tool.
Christopher Bell, 7th ($8,800 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel)
It falls under the radar due to Chase Elliott’s rise to prominence, but Joe Gibbs has been good at Watkins Glen of late.
Joe Gibbs Racing, over the past three races at Watkins Glen, with five different drivers in four cars, plus an affiliated team (95):
Hamlin – 3, 13, 4
Kyle Busch – 11, 3, 7
Truex – 2, 2, 1
Suarez – 4, 3
Jones – 4, 5, 10
DiBenedetto – 6Christopher Bell 🚀
Bubba Wallace 🤔— Phill (@RaceSheetsDFS) August 3, 2021
A win in 2017, multiple top-fives and top-10 finishes, and even the No. 95 of LFR and the No. 77 of Furniture Row were competitive cars (Gibbs affiliates). With no qualifying or practice, it is all lining up for teams to turn back to old race notes, and no other team has had this market cornered quite like Gibbs. This is all to say, Bell could easily surprise the masses and pull out a victory on Sunday. He has the win at the Daytona Road Course, and he finished second at Road America. In Bell’s most recent start in the Xfinity Series at Watkins Glen, he finished second. Awesemo’s Top Drivers Tool gives Bell the best chance of being a top-two dominator of anyone under $9,000 today.
Chase Elliott, 11th ($10,600 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)
If any driver is going to break the streak of three straight drivers starting third or better winning at Watkins Glen, it is going to be the two-time Glen champion himself. Elliott’s two victories have come from starting third or better, but it is not like an 11th starting position is some insurmountable task for Elliott. Hearkening back to Road America, Elliott started back in the 30s before he ended his day sailing away with the win. With this slice of place differential at his disposal, Elliott does not have to be the top lap leader on the day to end up optimal. Even with just a fifth-place finish, those six spots gained will be worth 24 laps led points. Elliot is the No. 2 driver in Awesemo’s NASCAR DFS Projections.
Tyler Reddick, 13th ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
Austin Dillon, 16th ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
For those that missed it, all 16 potential playoff drivers were touched upon in a playoff preview. As things stand with just four races remaining in the regular season, Reddick has a slim 5-point lead over Dillon. One misstep from either driver could cause Reddick or Dillon to end up in a hole deep enough that the only solution would be a win induced by strategy. With this in mind, Reddick and the No. 8 team know exactly what they need to go to cross the finish line in the last playoff spot.
That strategy the past few months has been top-10 finishes paired with stage points. That is precisely what he has been able to accomplish at road courses in 2021, with three straight top-10 finishes and a stage victory back at Road America. On DraftKings Sportsbook Reddick’s odds to finish in the top 10 are +125 compared to Dillon’s odds at +700.
Speaking of Dillon, he cannot be completely ruled out. Before this season Dillon was an auto-fade in practically any road course. However, he has made significant strides in his results relative to his career, with three straight top-13 finishes. With a touch more place differential, and at a cheaper price point across the industry, Dillon could be a better play simply in terms of fantasy points per dollar. With just a 5-point gap, the need to swing big is not really on the table for Dillon or crew chief Justin Alexander, but do not be surprised if the No. 3 team utilizes some to pick up stage points and attempt to narrow this miniscule gap.
Subscribe to Our Awesemo Odds on YouTube Channel We here at Awesemo are committed to bringing you the very best sports betting advice in the business. To help get the best bang for your buck, we are pleased to introduce the NEW Awesemo Odds YouTube channel! All of your favorite Awesemo personalities will appear regular on Awesemo Odds, including Dave "Loughy" Loughran, Josh Engleman, Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer, Ben Rasa and more. This channel will be a FREE one-stop shop for all of Awesemo's betting strategy, advice and picks videos for all of your favorite sports to wager on, from NBA, NFL, MLB, PGA and much more. Join us now!Chase Briscoe, 27th ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Not much analysis is needed in why Briscoe is one of Sunday’s better plays. In terms of place differential, Briscoe has perhaps the high ceiling of anyone, as he starts 27th. A top-10 finish is well within Briscoe’s potential outcomes. He is +160 for a finish of 10th or better. Those odds are half of what Aric Almirola, Chris Buescher and Daniel Suarez‘s odds are for the same outcome.
Ryan Newman, 28th ($7,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
Typically drivers with recognizable names that are starting this far back become auto-plays in DFS. It is only natural to assume that with their skill and equipment they will pick up positive place differential and end the day on a positive note. Ye before people start locking in Newman and his assumed upside, they really need to investigate in what they are investing.
Since leaving the confines of Stewart-Haas in 2013, Newman’s finishes at Watkins Glen have gone 41st, 15th, 16th, 25th, 19th and 25th for Roush in 2019. There are a few top-20 results, but in his past 10 road course races:
Ryan Newman, currently slated to start 28th, in his past 10 road course races:
RA21 – 32
SON21 – 33
COTA21 – 24
DRC21 – 20
CR20 – 31
DRC20 – 19
CR19 – 32
WG19 – 25
SON19 – 7
CR18 – 11— Phill (@RaceSheetsDFS) August 2, 2021
Call it diminishing skill, call it a lack of performance with time spent at Richard Childress Racing and Roush Fenway Racing. Whatever the diagnosis is, Newman has not been good in road courses of late. Expecting that trend to correct itself with a car-driver combo that has zero fastest laps and averaged a running position of 24th in 2021’s four road races may be a losing bet.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[NASCARPAGE]
