Gas-N-Go: NASCAR DFS Picks for the Quaker State 400 Atlanta Motor Speedway on DraftKings + FanDuel

The field is set for the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend with Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch on the front row. Using Awesemo’s expert NASCAR fantasy projections, I have compiled some of my favorite NASCAR DFS tips and DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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Quaker State 400 NASCAR DFS Picks

Chase Elliott, 1st ($13,500 FanDuel, $9,800 DraftKings)

Over the past four years at Atlanta, fading the pole sitter has been a profitable bet. Ever since Kevin Harvick wrecked the field in 2017, leading 292 laps, no pole sitter has crested 33 laps led since. Now, even if the pole sitter was rostered, that driver did not technically sabotage lineups. During this same time span of the past four races, the worst finish the pole sitter has garnered was eighth in 2019. Yet considering salary and ownership, jumping off the pole sitter has been the savvy move for DFS.

The past three races at Atlanta have all seen the pole sitter lose the lead following a competition caution. This list includes Chase Elliott in last June’s race here in Atlanta. The question comes down to, should there be a competition caution this Sunday, can Elliott’s crew get him out fast enough for him to retain the lead? If so, he should be a safe bet to lead a majority of the first segment. What happens after that is up to Elliott, whose career at Atlanta, supposedly his home track, has been average at best.

Kyle Larson, 6th ($14,500 FanDuel, $12,000 DraftKings)

Following two lackluster races at Pocono, Larson returns to a bread-and-butter track for himself. It was earlier this season that Larson started sixth and ended up leading 269 of 325 laps in the first Atlanta race. A race that Larson should have won should Logano not worked diligently to keep Larson from lapping him.

It has been in these intermediate track races that the No. 5 team’s speed has shined as he led 103 laps at Las Vegas, 269 at Atlanta, 132 at Kansas and 327 at Charlotte. The lone intermediate that Larson did not become a dominator at was the first intermediate race: Homestead, where he finished fourth after leading just five laps. Regardless, at this track type, no one comes close to Larson’s dominance, and nothing has changed since Charlotte to lead DFS players into believing someone else has the upper hand.

Austin Dillon, 13th ($8,000 FanDuel, $7,900 DraftKings)

“All Dillon has to do is hold his position on Sunday.”

That phrase has been uttered so many times in the YouTube Strategy Shows it deserves a meme by now. For what has felt like the bulk of 2021, Dillon consistently finds himself starting too far forward for cash. However, in tournaments Dillon finds viability in tournaments if he can just hold his spot or move up a few positions. Despite these repeated questions, that is all Dillon had done before the Pocono double-header. From Homestead through Charlotte, Dillon had failed to finish any worse than 12th, with his Charlotte finish placing him in sixth.


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Daniel Suarez, 27th ($6,500 FanDuel, $7,700 DraftKings)

For the majority of DFS players and NASCAR fans alike, guessing where Suarez has finished in the 550-horsepower package this season would yield a wide range of results. Most still have a bad memory of Suarez in the No. 96 Gaunt Brothers car last season that was a 29th-place finish just waiting to happen. However, in this inaugural season for Trackhouse, Suarez has finished 15th, 26th, 17th, 11th, 15th, 13th and 15th in the seven races utilizing the low-horsepower, high-downforce package.

In Suarez’s brief career at Atlanta, his results last year in the No. 96 were definitely the worst (31st). Save for his rookie season, Suarez has been a consistent finisher in the teens at Atlanta — a projection he can safely be given for Sunday.

Ryan Newman, 29th ($5,800 FanDuel, $6,100 DraftKings)

It has been a while since Newman has been recommended as a core play across DFS, but the conditions are perfect for Newman to be optimal this weekend. Much like with Jimmie Johnson, as a driver ages their skill begins to fade. That was on full display for Newman last weekend at Road America where he was an afterthought for most of the afternoon. Now NASCAR returns to a venue that plays into one of Newman’s remaining skills: Managing tire fall off.

Over the past three races at Atlanta, Newman has finishes of 13th, 14th and 13th. In 2021 races featuring tire management, Newman has finished seventh at Homestead, 10th at Darlington, 23rd at Dover (four laps down) and 13th at Nashville. Comparatively, Newman has been much better in the lower-horsepower package compared to the high-horsepower package, as have been most mid-tier teams like Roush. With Newman’s skill to manage tires at a horribly abrasive track like Atlanta, matched with this place differential, it all sets up Newman to be a fantastic play in DFS.

Ryan Preece, 34th ($4,000 FanDuel, $7,400 DraftKings)

With this starting position for Preece, the temptation is going to be to jam him in cash games as well as tournaments this weekend. While the Race Sheets point to a driver with an average finishing position of 21st in the 550-horsepower package, through seven races, a big “buyer beware” is positioned atop Preece’s forehead. To begin with, finishes of eighth in the second Pocono race and 15th at Las Vegas are boosting that average number up a bit. Every other finish in this package has been 21st or worst.

Second of all, Preece in just three races has not figured out Atlanta and how to manage tire wear. Since his rookie season, his finishes have gone 35th, 26th, and 25th. In all of the races, in 2021, featuring high tire wear management, Preece finished 21st at Homestead, 29th at Richmond, 25th at Darlington, 18th at Dover (a lap down), and 32nd at Nashville. By the end of Sunday’s race, Preece may have picked up positive place differential, but probably not enough to merit rostering in either cash or tournaments. Especially given his absurd salary on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he is cheap enough he could be the last driver selected in tournaments.

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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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