NASCAR DFS Picks: Free Geico 500 DraftKings & FanDuel Daily Fantasy

The field is set for Sunday’s Geico 500 at Talladega Speedway. You know the drill. I know the drill. The only thing left to discuss is what makes Driver X starting 28th that much better of a play than Driver Y starting 30th or vice versa for NASCAR DFS.

What’s the Drill?

I don’t want to be too presumptive at this point in the NASCAR DFS season. However, I’m going to assume most of you reading this already know what the game plan is. You’re probably just looking for some picks to back up your pre-Sunday roster decisions. If that’s you, feel free to move on.

On the other hand, there is still a good segment of you who have never had the joy of playing NASCAR DFS at a superspeedway. If that includes you, welcome to the wildest swing in DFS, period. For you NASCAR DFS novices, you need to get acquainted with why Talladega is such an anomaly. I outlined it concisely in this week’s preview. If you fail to read that, then nothing else in this article will make sense. Heck, no NASCAR DFS content you consume this entire weekend will make sense.

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The Talladega NASCAR DFS Game Plan

Whether you’re building lineups on DraftKings or FanDuel, here are the guidelines you should consider.

Salaries are arbitrary concepts like government budgets. Don’t concern yourself with trying to use as much as you can like every other weekend. Our concern is where drivers start and not how much they individually cost or what their collective salaries look like on a 5 or 6 driver lineup.
Your driver pool, in most cases, has to have a starting point. As in, you won’t take any drivers starting higher than 20th or 25th. Be cognizant that the higher this number is the more risk you’re opening yourself up to. On the other hand, the lower that number the safer your lineups will be. If your cash lineup has anyone starting higher than 20th – start again.
If you’re swinging for the fences, you’ve got to take on extra risk. Each race’s past optimal had a lap leader who started in the single digits or teens. Taking a driver this high opens up your portfolio to extra risk due to them being able to lose tons of place differential. However, as Bruce Arians had stated, “No risk it, no biscuit”. If you want first place, you’ll have to have shares of potential lap leaders – a tactic most will shy away from.

Potential Lap Leaders

Joey Logano 9th ($13,000 FanDuel, $10,200 DraftKings) – A serious argument can be made that Logano is the best current superspeedway driver in NASCAR. If not both Talladega and Daytona, then for sure at Talladega. Over the past 5 years, Logano has won 3 times at Talladega with 3 other top-5 finishes. Over the past 3 years, Logano is averaging the most laps led (32) with by far the highest driver rating (108.9). Starting 9th gives Logano a little place differential to squeeze to help his fantasy outlook.

Chase Elliott 11th ($13,300 FanDuel, $10,400 DraftKings) – If it’s the “Spring” at ‘Dega, then it’s time to give Elliott a look. In back to back Spring Talladega races, Elliott has finishes of 1st and 3rd. Like Logano, Elliott’s starting position gives him a little place differential to help boost his overall score.

To be honest, the cases can be made for several drivers to be potential lap leaders who also finish top-5. Below are my rankings if you want exposure to these high ceiling/ low floor plays in tournaments.

Joey Logano
Chase Elliott
Kevin Harvick
Denny Hamlin (better in the Fall though)
Brad Keselowski
Ryan Blaney
Kyle Busch
Kurt Busch
Jimmie Johnson
Martin Truex Junior

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Tournament NASCAR DFS Picks

This group encompasses everyone I wouldn’t consider a threat to lead. Yet, they’re skilled enough to finish in the top-5 and perhaps do enough via place differential to be a top-6 fantasy scorer. Once again, like the potential lap leaders, these are drivers you would only want 1 of in your lineups out of 5 or 6.

Aric Almirola 15th ($11,000 FanDuel, $6800 DraftKings) – If you wanted a driver to hammer ownership on that may go under-owned, Almirola could be your Huckleberry. Thanks to the random draw, Almirola starts in a dead zone for some fantasy players. Starting 15th, Almirola offers place differential but is still a risk should any number of things happen. Heck, even with Almirola’s superspeedway resume (multiple wins, tons of top-10 finishes), he’ll still get marked off because he starts in the teens. For me, Almirola is a huge threat to lead laps as well as win. While risky for cash game purposes, I wouldn’t tell you no, because he’s been that good at superspeedways.

Ricky Stenhouse Junior 20th ($10,100 FanDuel, $8400 DraftKings) – Starting 20th, Stenhouse is going to be on the fence line for a lot of fantasy enthusiasts. Stenhouse is plenty aggressive enough to win this race, as he did in 2017. On the other hand, that same aggressiveness could take himself out and cause the big one in the process. Based on Stenhouse’s past at Talladega, it feels like you’re either getting a top-5 or a finish in the 26th place range. Not ideal for cash but perfect in tournaments.

Another driver you’ll want shares of is Ryan Newman starting 14th. Any concerns about how Newman will race post-Daytona are probably overblown. If Newman was scared of risking his life once more, he wouldn’t have stepped back in the 6 at Darlington. While nothing is guaranteed at a superspeedway, Newman has been a lock to finish on the lead lap in his career at Dega and Daytona. I would expect the same Sunday and perhaps he gets the victory he nearly had last fall.

Cash NASCAR DFS Picks

Just have exposure to everyone starting 25th or worse. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk…

I know, it’s not that simple. However, if multi-mass-entering you will want exposure to every driver in the back half of the field. Some drivers are better options than others. Yet, in the end, any one of these drivers, regardless of talent or equipment, could pick up 20, 25, or 30+ positions.

The undoubted chalk, and perhaps highest owned driver on all sites, will be Ty Dillon starting 33rd. In Dillon’s 3 years at Germain Racing, he is one of only 2 drivers to finish on the lead lap at each Talladega race. While 10th is his career-best finish at Talladega, it’s that track record combined with 33rd starting position that makes him such a valuable play. He’s a lock in cash games, a great play in tournaments, and your top fade candidate if you’re trying to beat the field via ownership.

Another popular play that I like in all formats is Daniel Suarez starting 37th. I bemoan Suarez and his salary on a weekly basis during the live show on Saturdays. However, for Talladega, I’m back in on Suarez. To begin with, his starting position gives you a great floor and tons of upside should he survive the day. Second, it’s his track record at Talladega that leads me to believe he will be hanging around the top-15 come to the end of the race.

In 6 career Talladega races, last Fall saw his only finish outside of the top-20. If nothing else in 2020, Suarez has shown in attrition tracks (Bristol, Martinsville) that he’s capable of keeping his equipment clean and picking off spots. Remember, superspeedway races aren’t about equipment as everyone’s equipment is on par with everyone else. Suarez can use this to his advantage Sunday. Hopefully with some help from his Toyota racing family.

Finally, as I state that every driver in the second half of the field should be in your pool, I truly mean it with Garrett Smithley starting dead last in 40th. This selection is a little hairy as this will be Smithley’s first Cup start at a superspeedway but I wouldn’t overthink it. Smithley has made 7 starts at Daytona and 4 starts at Talladega in the Xfinity Series. In only 2 of those starts has Smithley failed to finish on the lead lap. Heck, Smithley even has a start here in the ARCA Menard’s Series. Regardless, Smithley has plenty of experience here and in this type of track.