NASCAR DFS Preview for the GEICO 500 Draftkings and FanDuel

Following Denny Hamlin’s victory at Homestead, NASCAR heads west to Alabama. The NASCAR DFS world will turn its eyes Sunday to the Geico 500 from Talladega Superspeedway.

A New Package for 2020ish

I know it’s been a while but think back to February. If you thought of Minneapolis, it was about the Wild, the Twins or maybe even the hapless Timberwolves. Murder hornets sounded like a bad ’90s kids’ anime meant to compete with Power Rangers and not the latest threat to your life. When someone said “corona” you instantly thought of cerveza and not the highly contagious respiratory disease. It was simpler times for sure.

It was also when we all saw Ryan Newman fly through the air and nearly die, live on national TV at Daytona. In an attempt to mitigate that threat, NASCAR came up with a new rules package for the other three superspeedway races in 2020. Now cars will have 40 fewer horsepower and air will move differently over the cars thanks to some new technical rules.

These changes would be all fine and dandy if the drivers had practice to make adjustments based on these changes. However, as you and I both know, there is no practice and probably won’t be until August. Therefore, everyone is going to have to use the first segment to get a real feel for how these cars drive, especially when it comes to how these cars handle in the draft.

In an interview with Bob Pockrass of Fox Sports, Hamlin stated he expects drivers to pick up the nuances “pretty quick.” In that same article, Kyle Busch thinks the real challenge is going to be for the engine tuners dealing with the drop in horsepower. As far as the drivers, Busch told Pockrass, “I don’t think any of us would have any problem with it.”

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Package Implications for NASCAR DFS

In the end, what do we know for certain? The cars will have less power. What’s that look like in a draft or pack racing? Well, that’s to be determined. However, I’m not too concerned about the package’s simplification for DFS. First off, the driver’s don’t seem too concerned on their end. Hamlin and Busch both feel pretty confident that they’ll pick up the changes on the fly. Even if they don’t, this is a 500-mile race (188 laps). There will be plenty of time to learn as more and more rubber gets laid down.

Furthermore, these changes at superspeedways always get lost in the minutia of the draft. Yes, cars are getting slowed down. Maybe the rules changes make it easier to drive up to the rear of a car without getting them loose. Perhaps you do or don’t need a drafting partner to help push you past someone for the lead. Remember, the aero change is for safety and not for handling. NASCAR wants to keep drivers from barrel-rolling through the air should they go sideways.

Regardless, the variable not changing is the draft itself. Pack racing elicits a very specific DFS roster construction build, a build that you all should be familiar with now.

Superspeedway Roster Construction

If you’ve only recently started playing NASCAR DFS, you might be unfamiliar with why tracks like Talladega and Daytona are anomalies compared to other venues. It comes down to a few simple factors. First, we have a reduction in laps because of the size of these superspeedways (2.5 miles). Therefore, those precious dominator points become few and far between. For DraftKings purposes, just forget that fastest laps exist this weekend. Practically everyone will get fastest laps and there is no way to predict who will get them from lap to lap, all because of the draft.

Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel does a great job here of explaining drafting.

The draft produces pack drafting, i.e. the whole field is grouped together mere inches and seconds apart. Positions can and will change constantly including the lead. Furthermore, with everyone running so close together, wrecks can and will happen at any time. Just one car getting loose can set off a chain reaction that can take out over half the field.

For NASCAR DFS purposes, the only scoring metric you can really bank on at superspeedways is place differential. Yes, drivers will lead laps but you have no guarantee that these lap leaders won’t wreck out. Furthermore, with only 188 laps, there exists a strong probability that the top lap leader will be outscored by several drivers who pick up 15, 20, 25 or 30 positions.

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Digging Deeper into Talladega

If you’re an Awesemo Premium subscriber, this would be a fantastic time to open the Race Sheets and look at the tab labeled “Start/Finish Heat Map”. On that page, you can easily see the results for every position over the past six Talladega races. Listed in those results are average laps led, fastest laps and DraftKings points.

If all we do is sort starting positions by average DraftKings points, we find that the top-10 average scorers are primarily drivers starting 25th or worse. Our exceptions are the ninth- and first-starting positions, lo and behold, three of the last six winners who are averaging over 23 laps led per race. So what’s the common thread with those drivers starting in the back scoring so many fantasy points? It’s place differential and in most cases, they are averaging over 10 spots gained.

On the flip side, if we sort by lowest average DraftKings points, we see a bunch of top-20 starting positions. Our only exception is the 31st starting position scoring the third-fewest points. However, it makes sense when you see the driver starting 31st is averaging a finish in 32nd. Beyond that weird exception, lower average DraftKings scores are associated with higher starting positions. In fact, 13 of the 14-lowest average DraftKings points come from drivers starting 19th or higher.

You may have heard of the superspeedway mantra “start drivers in the back.” It may seem silly but it’s true. The lower down the starting grid you go, the higher the average fantasy points are scored.

NASCAR DFS Lineups Manifested

That last section may seem like nonsense. Believe me, if you’re new to NASCAR DFS, I get it. Since the return to racing, you’ve been listening to me talk about basing lineups around two, three or even four lap leaders. However, now we’re totally throwing out lap leaders and strictly chasing drivers who can gain place differential? Well, let’s look at the optimal DraftKings lineups from the past six Talladega races.

Two things should be apparent to you now. First, none of these lineups come anywhere close to using all of the salary cap. It might be tough but you’re going to have to force yourself to ignore salaries and build solely off starting positions. Second, that roster construction really is about picking drivers in the rear of the field. You want drivers you project to pick up at least 15 positions relative to where they start.

“But what about all of these optimal lineups with drivers starting in the single digits or teens?” you ask. If you’ll dig through those lineups, you know what you have? A race winner that also gained points via laps led. For example, not only did Ryan Blaney gain eight place differential spots, he also led 35 laps en route to victory last fall. In last spring’s race, Chase Elliott picked up 10 positions while also leading 44 laps. If a driver starting in the top half of the field is going to be optimal, they have to lead a portion of the race. If they don’t, you’re taking a shot on a driver with limited upside but tons of downside should they go backward.