Michigan Weekend NASCAR DFS Preview for DraftKings and FanDuel

Following Brad Keselowski‘s convincing victory at New Hampshire, NASCAR makes the journey west to the Irish Hills of Michigan. A doubleheader awaits the NASCAR DFS world with the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Saturday and the Consumers Energy 400 on Sunday.

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Silly Season in August

Speaking of Keselowski, he kicked off an interesting Monday with the announcement of re-upping with Penske. Speculation where he would end up racing rode wild following his win. That speculation was put to rest when Keselowski and Penske announced this new deal. However, all the deal did was add even further speculation about Keselowski’s future when the news dropped that the re-signing was for only one year. In the short term, the deal gives both sides security going into next season. In the long term, it sure feels like a marriage of convenience bound for separation following 2021.

On Tuesday, Bob Leavine — owner of Leavine Family Racing (No. 95), announced that he had sold the team due to financial issues. Many reasons were listed as to why Leavine wanted to get out. Chiefly was the cost of being a “business partner” of Joe Gibbs, lack of sponsors due to the pandemic and the delay in the Generation 7 car. Unconfirmed rumors are that Spire Motorsports has purchased Leavine’s assets — an unfortunate result. Should this go down, the 95 will no longer be a reliable vehicle in NASCAR DFS but a future punt play filled with the likes of Bayley Currey or Gray Gaulding. This all but eliminates a potential seat for Clint Bowyer or Erik Jones should they not re-sign with the respective teams.

Michigan Preview – Sorta Kinda

Much like Pocono in June, we’re staring down the barrel of a boring NASCAR DFS weekend. I hate to put it that bluntly, but Michigan does not produce good racing. It’s too big. It’s too wide. Drivers are constantly on the throttle. There is no nuance to this track.

Not only do we get to witness it on Saturday, but we also get basically the same race on Sunday with the exact same amount of laps. At least Pocono made the races smaller and made the lap totals different. The only consolation I have this weekend is knowing after the 800 miles of racing at Michigan, we don’t have to see this track again until 2021.

If ever there were a race track to embrace the pole-sitter, this would be it. In the 14 races that Michigan has hosted since 2013, only three of them have failed to see the pole sitter either lead the most or second-most laps. In fact, in six of those 11 instances, the pole sitter would go on to win the race.

	Laps Led	Fastest laps	Finish	Avg

S13	16	9	8	7
F13	51	19	1	4

S14	63	39	2	4
F14	68	48	1	3

S15	1	6	15	8
F15	146	75	1	2

S16	138	51	1	2
F16	24	7	10	8

S17	96	31	1	3
F17	105	26	17	4

S18	46	13	3	3
F18	13	3	8	9

S19	163	7	1	3
F19	66	24	19	7

A Note About Pole-Sitters

While it’s still in the works, I am in the midst of putting together just what lap leaders have done since the return to racing. Keeps your eyes open for that when it drops in the upcoming weeks. I would push it through this week to help our NASCAR DFS analysis, but Michigan is so advantageous to the pole sitter (especially in this package) I think we can hold off until post Daytona.

Michigan 1 – 2019

Our best bet of “predicting” what occurs Saturday, and consequently Sunday, is to use the two races from 2019 as our gauge for this NASCAR DFS slate. If you’ll recall, the first Michigan race was delayed until Monday because of rain. Combining the low-horsepower/high-downforce 2019 package with a green track was the perfect spell for someone to dominate the race. That was exactly what happened with Joey Logano, as he led 163 laps. However, he didn’t lead his first lap until No. 4 after taking back the lead from Denny Hamlin. The real enigma from that race was how Logano could lead 163 laps but only notch seven fastest laps.

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Michigan 2 – 2019

You might remember this race a bit more fondly. The lead changed hands a bit more, and the end was sort of chaotic. However, no one really wants another race where cashing your NASCAR DFS lineups comes down to landing on the guys who didn’t run out of gas. Regardless, this race was another classic Michigan case of the pole-sitter leading the most laps — 66 in fact. Keselowski eventually faded towards the end of the race, finishing 19th. In fact, our second-leading lap-leader, Logano (52), faded as well and finished 17th. The race came down to the final in-race setups of Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin with Harvick having the advantage.

Hamlin had the most fastest laps of anyone that day (37), with the best average running position (5) and driver rating (125). However, what mattered was getting out in front, and he only managed to lead six laps — none occurred after lap 56.

Final Thoughts

Saturday is really going to boil down to how the random draw shakes out, especially in regards to who sits on the pole. Regardless of who “wins” the pole, with only 200 laps our need for dominators is limited with two on DraftKings and perhaps just one on FanDuel. Sunday, will see the top 20 inverted, so we’re probably looking at a scenario where we’re picking three drivers in the teens for our NASCAR DFS lineups who also have the capability to lead laps later in the race. However, this is all wild speculation this early out.

I’m anticipating a fairly green race on Saturday, as these will be the cars teams have to use on the race on Sunday. Thankfully for teams, following this weekend is the Daytona road course. So if they do wreck two vehicles, they won’t be behind the eight ball going into next weekend. Be sure to check back Friday for my article breaking down the field for Saturday’s race, and then come back Saturday evening as I do the same for Sunday’s event.