As the Olympics churn on, the return to racing for NASCAR draws closer in early August. As this two-week hiatus concludes, let’s review where the Cup Series playoff picture currently sits for NASCAR betting with odds from DraftKings and FanDuel and what to expect for NASCAR DFS predictions with four races before the regular season reaches its conclusion.
2021 NASCAR Cup Betting Picks + Odds
With just four races remaining in the Cup regular season, it is a good time to take advantage of this lull in action. Starting with drivers who have clinched their way into the playoffs, those in via points, and finally potential playoff dark horses. While not comprehensive, this look will give fans and bettors alike a 50,000-foot view of the Cup playoff field and what their motivations may be going into this final month of the regular season.
* Drivers are ranked according to NASCAR’s own projected playoff standings as of July 31.
Kyle Larson, 1st (+280 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The surprise story of the 2021 season, Larson currently leads the field via his series-leading four victories. That number could easily be eight had he not dealt with late issues at Atlanta, Kansas, Dover, and Pocono. Larson’s meteoric rise this year, in his first season at Hendrick Motorsports, was always on the periphery of Larson’s potential outcomes as everyone wondered what his true potential could be in a top-tier car. That projection has come to life as Larson has shown the ability to compete in both the low and high-horsepower packages, small and large tracks alike.
Since his cut-down tire in the first Pocono race, in which he was one turn away from his fourth-straight victory, Larson’s numbers have come back down to earth. In that time, he has led zero laps and has just one top-five finish. With two road races and Daytona coming up in August, a true gauge of Larson’s horsepower will rear its head at Michigan — a true horsepower venue. Michigan has been kind to Larson, with three straight victories but none since the fall-2017 race.
Martin Truex Jr., 2nd (+800 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The driver of the 19 currently stands second in NASCAR’s projections, but his odds do not reflect that at DraftKings Sportsbook, where he is fifth in outright odds. With three victories, Truex is tied for the second-most wins this season. However, the last time Truex was showering his pit-crew with Gatorade was back at Darlington 10 races ago. New Hampshire would have been a good index of where he currently stands, especially in the 750-horsepower package. Yet, the rain and NASCAR itself had other plans for Truex.
Watkins Glen and the Indy GP provide two opportunities for Truex to accumulate more playoff points as well as outright victories. With his lackluster results in the 550-horsepower package (average finish of 10.6) compared to his numbers in the 750-horsepower package, it is obvious what the direction of this team has been. If he can run strong enough at tracks like Las Vegas, Kansas, and Texas, he should carry enough of a cushion where he will be a threat to win again at Martinsville and then finally at Phoenix when the title is decided.
Kyle Busch, 3rd (+650 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The last time fans saw Busch, he was sailing into turn one in New Hampshire before wrecking his No. 18 car. Like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr., Loudon was going to be a real litmus test for where he stood in the high-horsepower package and what his viability would be in the playoffs at the shorter tracks.
As far as bigger venues, this is where Busch has really excelled in 2021 with victories at Kansas, Pocono, and a near win at Atlanta. Busch currently leads all drivers with seven top-five finishes in the eight races utilizing the low-horsepower package with an incredible average finish of 3.4. Considering this run, Busch will probably roll into Michigan as the betting favorite.
Still, this performance in the 550-horsepower package could be all for not if he does not clean up his numbers in the 750-horsepower package. With just one top-five in seven races and an average finish of 17.3, Busch could easily find himself falling out of the playoffs in much the same way Kevin Harvick did. Success in the playoffs and ultimately winning the title is now based on what drivers can do in the high-horsepower package. With the first round of the playoffs being comprised totally of tracks utilizing the high-horsepower setup, Busch could put himself in a hole come round two.
Denny Hamlin, 4th (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dependent on what happens in these final four races, Hamlin could easily move up or down this playoff field. Hamlin’s playoff prowess has been built off his body of work in the 2021 season, as he currently holds zero victories. Even so, with five stage wins, 11 top-fives, and 15 top-10 finishes, he has been amassing points at such a consistent rate that he has placed himself up high on the leaderboard. With a 201-point lead over Kevin Harvick and 278 points over Tyler Reddick, if anyone makes their way in via points, it will be Hamlin.
Hamlin has been a good road course racer over his career, but Hamlin’s best shot at sealing a win before the playoffs begin at Darlington comes in the regular-season finale at Daytona. A multiple-time Daytona 500 winner, Hamlin’s mastery in superspeedway races goes without saying. Yet, with the sheer randomness and chaos that tends to accompany the second Daytona race, that race could also be Hamlin’s undoing. Should a surprise victor, say a former Xfinity driver from last season, win at the Indy GP, all it could take is another winless driver at Daytona to knock Hamlin out of the playoffs.
Chase Elliott, 5th (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)
By all rights, Elliott’s 2020 championship was lightning caught in a bottle. Circumstances, including NASCAR making up a reset rule in the pits, put Elliott in a situation to win at Martinsville. He then went on to win the championship race at Phoenix, despite not having the fastest car that day (Brad Keselowski). Regression was anticipated in 2021 for Elliott, and it has come. Larson’s two victories have only come in road courses, and luckily for him, the next race on the calendar is Watkins Glen, a race he has won back-to-back.
In fact, the four road course races have been the shining stars in Elliott’s 2021 resume. Outside of those events, he only has six other top-five finishes. Elliott’s going to need to accumulate some playoff points at Watkins Glen and Indianapolis to help provide himself some breathing room going into the playoffs. With enough cushion, Elliott could conceivably put himself in position for the third round with a win at the Charlotte Roval, a track he has won in two straight seasons.
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William Byron, 6th (+1200 DraftKings Sportsbook)
It has been so long since Byron won at Homestead. It almost feels like that victory came in 2020. That early victory locked Byron into the playoffs, and he has ridden a wave of consistency since with eight top-fives and 14 top-10 finishes. However, since coming up two laps short of fuel in the second Pocono race, Byron’s finishes have been on the downturn, with no finish better than 20th in the past three races.
Byron has steadily improved as a road racer throughout his Cup career, although that is not mirrored in 33rd or worse finishes at Sonoma and Road America. The two races at Watkins Glen and Indianapolis provide an opportunity for the 24 team to right their ship and gain some ground in the playoff standings, where he is currently tied with Chase Elliott with 2016 points.
Alex Bowman, 7th (+1400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Coming into a make-or-break season for Bowman, he has exceeded expectations with three victories. Yet, the argument can be made that Bowman’s ascension lies in the hands of crew chief Greg Ives who has capitalized on strategy on and off pit road to put Bowman in these opportunities to win. With no stage wins and just 151 laps led, Bowman’s victories and skill overall has been a story of a good to great pit road team and being able to make a late push as he did at Richmond and Dover.
Outside of these victories, Bowman only has three other top-five finishes to his name. Furthermore, 98 of Bowman’s 151 total laps led came at Dover. Another 34 laps led happened in the fuel-strategy races at Pocono. Thus when his season is isolated against those three events, Bowman’s laps led total craters down to 19 races over 19 races.
It is strategy that has put Bowman in this situation. It will be strategy that helps Bowman excel in the playoffs. Thankfully for him, he has the crew chief and the pit crew to make it a viable path to making a late playoff push.
Joey Logano, 8th (+1000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Through 22 races, Logano finds himself as the highest-ranking of all Penske drivers in what could be considered a down year for Penske. Logano’s lone victory came in the Bristol dirt race, an event that stands alone in the 2021 season and will be no corollary for the rest of this year.
Of all drivers in the Penske stable, Logano seems best prepared for a playoff and or championship run. He led the most laps at Phoenix before losing the lead late to Martin Truex Jr. and has posted three more top-five finishes in the high-horsepower package. Logano could have been a real threat at New Hampshire if not for a questionable penalty that put him two laps down before he got back on the lead lap and made a late charge into the top 10.
The emphasis on the 750-horsepower package is fantastic for Logano’s hopes for a second championship. However, his hope has to be that the deemphasis on the low-horsepower package does not become an issue at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Texas putting him into a win or else scenario at Martinsville.
Ryan Blaney, 9th (+1800 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Despite ranking third in stage wins (four), Blaney finds himself in the middle of the playoff field. A victory at Atlanta in the early Spring all but guaranteed Blaney his fifth straight playoff appearance. Nonetheless, with just that lone victory and an average finish firmly in the teens (13.4) for the 2021 season, Blaney has been scraping by for the most part, regardless of the package.
The bright spot for Blaney has been finishes of sixth or better in four of the past five races. The lone blemish came at Road America, a race in which he started 17th and finished 20th. Outside of that, Blaney has been running more consistently but will it be enough to help his playoff run? Since 2017, Blaney’s playoff career has been advancing past the first round only to get snuffed out in the second.
With Talladega sitting squarely in the middle of the second round, Blaney could easily pull out a victory at a track he has won at twice. What happens in the third round at Texas and Kansas, two of his better intermediate tracks, could really lay the groundwork for Blaney to be a darkhorse candidate for the final four in Phoenix.
Brad Keselowski, 10th (+1200 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Now that the cat is out of the bag, as per Keselowski’s intentions to drive for the Cat in the Hat next season, Keselowski’s season may finally go on the uptick. Outside of his victory at Talladega in the Spring, 2021 has been a much more inconsistent season for Keselowski. Especially compared to last year when he won four races, had 13 top-fives, 24 top-10s, and was a slow pit crew away from winning the championship.
The lingering issue for Keselowski has been what appears to be an opposite approach of Joey Logano. Wherein Logano has been better in the 750-horsepower package, the numbers show that Keselowski has been better in the 550-horsepower setup. That approach will get a driver points and victories, but if a driver cannot close the deal at Martinsville and Phoenix, all of those good runs at tracks like Las Vegas and Kansas will be forgotten memories come December.
The bright spot for Keselowski is this past race in New Hampshire. Granted, three of the four Joe Gibbs drivers were non-factors, but Keselowski ran strong at Loudon leading 53 laps and finishing third. With New Hampshire as one of the better corollaries to Phoenix, Keselowski could be a contender for a title once again, should he put together a strong run in the second and third rounds of the playoffs.
Kurt Busch, 11th (+2500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Following a DNF in the Coca-Cola 600, Busch was an afterthought for most people. He was mired in the standings in the 20s as per the playoffs. With no victories, and one top-five (Daytona Road Course), hope for Busch to continue his win and playoff streak was few and far between. However, Busch did the improbable and pointed his way into the playoffs for the final spot with four top-10 finishes.
A surprising performance, as well as a late victory at Atlanta, cemented his spot in the playoffs. Whatever concerns there were about Busch in his age-42 season all seem overblown. Now Busch is on the precipice of signing a new deal with Trackhouse Motorsports to stay in the 1 or move over to 23XI Racing and take the reins of their second car.
Busch’s late ascent makes him an intriguing long shot and probably the most viable of any driver in the +2000 or longer area. Even then, with just a projected eight-point lead over the final playoff spot, Busch will need to close out the season strong so as to not be in a spot where one bad race in the opening round sabotages his championship hopes.
Christopher Bell, 12th (+3000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Michael McDowell, 13th (+15,000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aric Almirola, 14th (+3500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bell starts off a run of drivers, who if not for their lone victories, would be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. A surprising victory at the Daytona Road Course propelled Bell into the playoffs. Since then, Bell’s season has been a series of ups and downs, mostly downs, though. With just nine top-10 finishes and zero stage points, Bell sits tied with the third-fewest projected playoff points (2005) alongside Michael McDowell and Aric Almirola.
Michael McDowell was the first driver to clinch a playoff spot way back in February at the Daytona 500. Of all drivers with a victory, McDowell ranks lowest in terms of laps led (25) and just one other top-five (third, Talladega) to his name in the 2021 season. With the lowest funded team of everyone in the playoff picture, it should be no surprise his odds reflect that of drivers who have to win their way in just to make the playoffs. McDowell and the 34 team are really going to have to pick up playoff points at Watkins Glen, Indianapolis, and Daytona (all strong suits of McDowell) if he has any hopes of advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Considering how cursed this 2021 season has seemingly been for Almirola, he is probably just happy to be in this spot. With five DNFs and an average finish currently sitting at 21.8, Almirola has not had a season this bad since his days at Richard Petty Motorsports. However, Almirola’s tale is a cautionary tale for every driver sitting outside of the playoffs who happen to be top 30 in points. One win can change everything, and that is what it did for Almirola at New Hampshire. He has a tough road just to make it out of the first round, yet as things stand, he is only 4 points behind Brad Keselowski for the ninth spot.
Kevin Harvick, 15th (+1200 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyler Reddick, 16th (+6000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Via an 82-point lead, Kevin Harvick “seems” like a safe bet to make the playoffs via points. Coming off a nine-win season in 2020 that ultimately ended in heartbreak as Harvick failed to qualify for the championship race, 2020 has been a punch to the face for Harvick. With zero wins, Harvick is hoping to break this cycle as he has won at least one race per season going back to 2009.
In all, 2021 has not been that bad to Harvick, with six top-fives and 15 top-10 finishes. However, his inability to scale to the lead has been a glaring weakness for the 4 team this season. In all, Harvick has led a total of 105 laps this season, with 66 of those coming at New Hampshire and another 29 in the two superspeedway events. His consistency has kept him in the playoff hunt, but he will need more than that if he wants to avoid a first-round elimination.
Rounding out the playoffs in the final spot is Tyler Reddick. With just a five-point cushion over teammate Austin Dillon, this final spot could really be in flux over the final four events. 121 points separate Reddick from Chris Buescher, so outside of two surprise winners in the final four events, this last spot should come down to who can run better amongst the Richard Childress drivers. Neither driver can afford a bad finish as one wreck could turn this minuscule gap into something more sizable.
The Field
As touched upon earlier, if anyone from 17th through 30th in points can manage to win at Watkins Glen, Indianapolis, Michigan, or Daytona, they will kick Harvick and or Reddick out of the playoffs. It may not seem fair, but NASCAR rules dictate that if a driver is simply top 30 in points while also having a win, they leapfrog everyone who has qualified for the playoffs via points. NASCAR wants intrigue and potential chaos heading into the homestretch.
Watkins Glen does not have the appearance of a rogue winner. Indianapolis, however, does carry intrigue as this will be a track with practice, qualifying, and the first time the majority of Cup drivers will have seen this venue. Xfinity drivers from last season will have a leg up, but whatever advantage that past Xfinity race merits may be leveled by on-track activity. Michigan is a no-go for a first-time winner in 2020, as horsepower will be the story of that two-mile track.
Daytona is the great equalizer, though. It goes without saying, but literally, anyone can win at Daytona. With the right drafting partner and landing on the right side of variance, even Anthony Alfredo could find his way into the playoffs and make the push between Reddick and Dillon a moot point. Nonetheless, it will be fascinating to watch and should affect strategy for a few drivers going down the stretch.
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