Following Martin Truex Jr.’s convincing win at Martinsville, the Cup series heads back to Texas. The second leg of the round of eight will commence for 500 miles in the Metroplex with the AAA Texas 500.
Martinsville Recap
In my Martinsville preview, I clearly stated that this past Sunday’s race should be a mirror of the Spring race. Well, that, unfortunately, is what we got. After a lap 30 caution for debris, Denny Hamlin lost his lead in the pits and Truex never looked back. Truex somehow led more laps than Brad Keselowski did in the Spring (446) and locked himself into the championship four at Homestead.
Whether by hook or by crook, fading the pole sitter at Martinsville worked again. If not for that bad initial pit stop, Hamlin may have pulled off what Truex did laps led wise. However, it was very clear that Truex had the car to beat.
Despite little going on upfront, there was plenty of action behind the leader, including Chase Elliott digging himself a gigantic hole by finishing dead last. As well as two playoff contenders throwing fists post-race. However, neither Hamlin nor Joey Logano found themselves under the cutoff line.
Two To Go
With two races until the Championship race in Homestead, we already have one contender locked in. As previously stated, via Martin’s win, Truex will contend for the title in Miami. As things stand going into Texas, Denny Hamlin (+24), Kyle Busch (+17), and Joey Logano (+14) hold those final three spots. Bringing in the rear is perennial Texas favorite Kevin Harvick (-14), perennial Texas dark horse Ryan Blaney (-15), Kyle Larson (-24), and the aforementioned Chase Elliott (-44).
A win could lock in any one of those seven into the second playoff spot. However, before we get into potential winners let’s discuss Texas Motor Speedway in general.
Expectations For Texas
As per the norm, if you’re looking for a bit more detail about Texas check out my article from the March race. Instead of rehashing pre-released information, let’s look at that early Spring race and how it vibed with expectations.
As Denny Green so famously said, Texas was who we thought it was. Well, at least in the light of the 550 HP package at intermediate tracks. The trend going into Texas was that literally anyone from anywhere can ascend to the lead. However, be sure to give a strong nod to the pole sitter initially. Despite how you may have felt about the pole sitter (Jimmy Johnson) that day, he did end up being a crucial cog in DFS that day. Johnson ended the day with the second-most laps led and in the optimal lineup.
Beyond Jimmie, our driver with the most laps led (Kyle Busch) started 16th showing the stark contrast between the two packages. The week prior at Martinsville, Kyle started around the same spot and could never breakthrough into the lead. Fast forward a week and Kyle maneuvers his way to the lead. To put a bow on this point, the lap leaders started 16th, first, sixth, third and 11th. Yes, the further up the grid a driver started the more likely they led but two drivers outside of the top 10 bring the point home.
However, the fact that we had five drivers lead at least 10% or more of the race shouldn’t be lost either. In fact, this is what made this race unlike any other before at Texas in the Gen Six car. Four times since 2013 we’ve seen at least four drivers lead 10% or more of the race. However, March’s race was the first time we had seen five.
Furthermore, since we had a fifth-lap leader enter the fray we also saw a reduction in total laps led by the dominators. To be honest, we really didn’t have a dominator in the Spring. Our top lap leader led an underwhelming 66 laps, by far the fewest for any top lap-leader at Texas in the Gen-6 era. It was subsequently the first time the top lap-leader failed to lead over 100 laps in this era too.
Which Texas Do We Get?
The $10,000 question for tomorrow is what version of Texas do we get? If we have a Spring style outcome once more then balance will be crucial. Paying $11,000 or more on DraftKings for just 60 laps led won’t be viable if multiple drivers at $2000+ less salary replicate their production. However, if we return to a race like last fall that saw Kevin Harvick lead 177 laps then paying up makes all the sense.
The story, for the most part, is what we saw initially in this package is what we get in the Fall. However, I think the March Texas results were so out of bounds that we don’t get a repeat. Whether in the context of past Texas races, or just this package at intermediate tracks in 2019, March repeating seems very unlikely. Thus, roster construction should focus on two dominators with the correct balance of place differential and finishing position drivers.
P.S. just as a heads up be mindful this race is 500 miles in length. It’s a longer race, as far as intermediate tracks are concerned, but it still doesn’t affect our roster builds.
Potential Dominators
Atop the list of potential leaders has to be pole-sitter Kevin Harvick. Happy has been in a tier all his own since Texas was repaved owning 2 wins and an average finish of 3.2 since 2017. We’ve seen time and time again this year that when Kevin has clean air he runs away. As noted above, Kevin currently sits on the outside looking in the final four. Harvick could easily run away with this race and lock himself into the championship round.
Next on my Hog list is Spring winner Denny Hamlin in 3rd. This pick comes with a little risk as Denny has not fared well of late at Texas. However, we’re banking on a two-time winner in the 550 HP package to pick up where he left off in the Spring. With no fear of selecting drivers in the teens, unlike last week, we look at Kyle Busch too. In similar circumstances, Kyle worked his way forward in the first Texas race. Starting 12th gives Kyle a little place differential floor. Plus, after some less than stellar weeks, Kyle needs a strong showing before going to Phoenix.
The final name to mention is Ryan Blaney in 15th. Texas has been a strong track for Blaney in his short career. Just 15 points behind Logano for spot #4, a win much less a top-five could go along way for Ryan.
Place Differential Options
Whether its equipment or the driver, you can tell the days are winding down for Paul Menard. After another bad qualifying attempt, Menard finds himself starting 31st and should be locked in for cash. At his price tag, there isn’t a good tournament pivot unless you go down to Chris Buescher. While you may think Chris is starting a little too high, I like this spot for Buescher. In 20th, Buescher has space to gain and should slot in an area keeping him away from getting lapped.
Priced up due to his history, and somewhat recent win here is Jimmie Johnson starting 23rd. Johnson showed really well in the Spring but I think that was more due to his starting position. Johnson is better suited for cash than tournaments much like Clint Bowyer. Starting 24th, Bowyer has a nice floor but as far as ceiling I just don’t see it. In fact, I don’t think either Bowyer or Busch has a ceiling unless they started dead last or on the pole. For tournaments, I’d rather save a little dough and go up the grid to William Byron. With JJ, Bowyer, and Newman all starting behind Byron I expect his ownership to be a fraction of that trio. For what it’s worth, Byron has more top-ten finishes in this package than all of those three.
