Following Kevin Harvick’s late-race win, snatched from the jaws of defeat, we head South. Let’s be frank. Without the Penske boys running out of fuel, Harvick doesn’t win last week. Regardless, the NASCAR Cup series makes its mid-August return to Bristol, Tennessee for 500 laps around the Coliseum.
Before I begin let me say this week’s breakdown is going to be different. At Michigan and Pocono I spent the bulk of the space highlighting what happened in the first respective races. I didn’t go too in-depth because the first articles were the statistical dive most are looking for. However, my first Bristol article from the Spring was more about the 750 horsepower package than anything. Thus, this weekend’s article will actually summarize past Bristol races and its DFS implications.
An Eye on the Past
From 2013 through this past April’s Bristol race, here is how the lap leaders have broken down. Note: only drivers who led 10% (50) or more of the race made the graph.Â
- Through thirteen total races, we’ve had 48 drivers lead at least 50 or more laps. In average terms, it means we can expect 4 (3.69 to be precise) drivers to collectively lead the majority of laps.
- The largest segment of laps a single driver has led was 276 by polesitter and race winner Carl Edwards in the Spring of 2016.
- The Spring 2013 race, the first ran at Bristol in the Generation Six car, saw not only the most individual Hogs (6) but also the fewest amount of laps led (117) by the driver who led the most laps.
- The driver who leads the most laps averages 186 laps led and 56 fastest laps (74.5 Hog points). Whereas, the secondary dominator averages 121 laps led and 56 fastest laps (58.25 Hog points). The driver who leads the third-most laps averages 81 laps led. When a race has a fourth dominator, that driver averages 69.5 laps led.
Just Tell Me How Many Hogs
After reading the above info you may be ready to skip ahead. Before you assume you know how this book ends, let’s stop for a second. What we do know is that you will for sure need two dominators. Focusing the majority of your research on the top two lap leaders will be more than beneficial this week. Because? Think of it this way. The drivers who lead the first and second most laps are going to score exponentially more fantasy points than everyone else. Thus, giving more emphasis on research to those drivers will help ensure your lineups are in green.
Below are the nuts and bolts of our top two dominators from each Bristol race.
Starting Position | Final Position | Place differential | Total Laps Led | Fastest Laps | ||
S13 | 3 | 23 | -20 | 117 | 34 | |
2 | 1 | 1 | 109 | 80 | ||
F13 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 149 | 58 | |
3 | 39 | -36 | 119 | 48 | ||
S14 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 165 | 38 | |
12 | 1 | 11 | 78 | 57 | ||
F14 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 148 | 35 | |
5 | 1 | 4 | 76 | 33 | ||
S15 | 4 | 38 | -34 | 184 | 74 | |
7 | 15 | -8 | 98 | 31 | ||
F15 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 192 | 66 | |
5 | 1 | 4 | 176 | 55 | ||
S16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 276 | 85 | |
14 | 36 | -22 | 142 | 26 | ||
F16 | 3 | 39 | -36 | 256 | 61 | |
24 | 1 | 23 | 128 | 65 | ||
S17 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 202 | 54 | |
3 | 8 | -5 | 116 | 89 | ||
F17 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 260 | 59 | |
18 | 1 | 17 | 156 | 86 | ||
S18 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 200 | 109 | |
1 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 58 | ||
F18 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 121 | 30 | |
16 | 6 | 10 | 120 | 36 | ||
S19 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 158 | 35 | |
7 | 3 | 4 | 146 | 71 |
- the average starting position of the top two lap leaders: 6.8
- the average finishing position of the top two lap leaders: 10.23. This number is dragged down by four drivers who finished DNF. If you remove those four DNF’s the average jumps up to 5.18. Regardless, you don’t need your Hog candidates to win.
- the number of times the polesitter was a top-two hog: 4! Since the polesitter led the most laps in four of five races from Spring 16 til Spring 18, the polesitter has gone on to lead 17 laps last fall and 38 last Spring.
- the number of times the top two lap leaders came from beyond 10th: 6!
Conclusion, potential lap leaders had better come from the top-ten. Unfortunately, a driver you might project to be a Hog on Friday may change if they fail tech on Saturday. Yes, you can take shots on drivers outside of 10th place but be prepared for them to need 350+ laps to move forward. Spring winner Kyle Busch won from the 17th starting position but he didn’t have his first lead until lap 384.
The 750 Horsepower Package
So, is it three or four dominators? In cash games the safe bet is to go with three. However, if you’re looking for an optimal build then I think we need to re-examine this racing package. The 750 horsepower/ no aero duct package has been used six times this season. Below are the races, where the dominators came from, and just how much % wise of the race they led.
Race | Driver | Start | Finish | Laps Led | % Led | Fastest Laps | Total Laps |
Phoenix | Kyle Busch | 4 | 1 | 177 | 56 | 103 | 312 |
Ryan Blaney | 1 | 3 | 94 | 30 | 27 | 312 | |
14% leftover | |||||||
Martinsville | Brad Keselowski | 3 | 1 | 446 | 89 | 79 | 500 |
11% leftover | |||||||
Bristol | Ryan Blaney | 3 | 4 | 158 | 31 | 35 | 500 |
Joey Logano | 7 | 3 | 146 | 29 | 71 | 500 | |
Kyle Busch | 17 | 1 | 71 | 14 | 40 | 500 | |
26% leftover | |||||||
Richmond | Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 1 | 186 | 46 | 34 | 400 |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 8 | 101 | 20 | 55 | 400 | |
24% leftover | |||||||
Dover | Chase Elliott | 1 | 5 | 145 | 36 | 47 | 400 |
Martin Truex Jr | 13 | 1 | 132 | 33 | 80 | 400 | |
31% leftover | |||||||
Loudon | Kyle Busch | 2 | 8 | 118 | 39 | 69 | 301 |
Denny Hamlin | 23 | 2 | 113 | 37 | 55 | 301 | |
22% leftover |
Once you get past the top dominators, you on average still have 21% of the laps led unaccounted for. At Bristol, this would mean 105 laps. Could a fourth driver lead all of these 105 laps? Sure, anything is possible. However, chances are they only lead half of those. Then we get into a debate about whether the 12.5 laps led points to justify spending however much on Hog #4. Thus, going with three dominators in all lineups would be the preferred path. A case can be made for four but you’ll need some special circumstances.
First, you need none of the high priced drivers to be a top-two lap leader. If Kyle Busch leads a large chunk of laps then this scenario goes out the door. Corresponding with that, you need mid-tier drivers to be the ones who soak up the dominator points.
Roster Construction
We’ve got our dominators figured out. Three more than likely. We’re relying heavily on multiple high-priced drivers to carry the mail, we need punts and perhaps even two depending on how tech shakes out. What you do with the remaining slot(s) is going to rest on your desire to chase finishing position or place differential.Â
In the Spring, Matt DiBenedetto probably scared off players starting in 21st. Especially at $6700. However, he moved forward and scored the 11th most points on the day with Paul Menard. Coincidentally, all Menard did was start 9th, and finish 6th with no laps led or fastest laps.
Bristol ModelÂ
Potential Dominators = orange. Cash Place Differential = green. GPP Place Differential = blue. Punts = pink.