NASCAR DFS: Bojangles Southern 500 Preview

(Disclaimer: I’m heading to Dallas for the weekend for a family reunion on the wife’s side. Thus, I’m not too certain on my availability because trying to keep up with native Texans is like herding cats. Or is it hogs. Maybe it’s cat-hogs. Regardless, below is a preview of Darlington with everything you’ll need to know going into the weekend. Check back with this article on Saturday evening as I’ll highlight my favorite cash, tournament, and dominator picks.)

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The Lady in Black

Darlington is here and that can mean only one thing…

Yes, its Labor Day weekend and college football is back.

However, more importantly, it’s throwback week!

Yes, to purists, it’s annoying that the Darlington weekend has become a glorified high schoolesque “spirit week”. However, this weekend is about “fun” and more importantly the added sponsor revenue the sport and track sees. The various Xfinity and Cup teams paint their cars to mirror some past car and the majority of fans enjoy reminiscing about a 1992 Ford Thunderbird that Rusty Wallace drove or a mid 80’s Buick Grand National. Heck, NBC even ratches up the throwback nostalgia with outdated graphics and retired play by play analysts rejoining the booth. Heck, if NBC could, they’d have the decaying corpses of Benny Parsons and Chris Economaki seated next to Dale Jr. Too soon?

In terms of “coolness”, my favorite throwback scheme I’ve seen thus far has to be the #24 of William Byron.

William Byron Unveils Days of Thunder Inspired Throwback Car for Darlington https://t.co/BSoQBurzGS pic.twitter.com/FOubMAP00g

— The Final Lap (@thefinallap) August 1, 2019

Days of Thunder is not a good movie by any means. The racing depicted is a bit over the top, even by 1990 standards. However, Tom Cruise was great playing a Tim Richmond like character. Nicole Kidman was #beautiful and the stuff of every young man’s dreams. If you’re into tall women with an Australian accent… Heck, even John C. Reilly was in the movie playing a member of Cruise’s pit crew. Sadly, no mention of a Dingus made the script.

However, that era of NASCAR definitely makes me think back to my childhood watching the sport with my dad. Heck, I even own the five toy cars released by Matchbox in conjunction with the movie. All in the original boxes too.

Byron’s paint scheme makes me think back to a “better” more innocent time in my life. EXACTLY, the type of emotional reaction the throwback weekend is supposed to do. Looks like Darlington is winning despite what the purists think. I’m convinced Darlington doesn’t care if this race is a “good race” by your, mine, or Jeff Gluck’s standards. All that matters is the lead up to the race.

Track Preview

Darlington, the track, is itself an odd duck. At 1.3-miles in length, it’s not really a short track while not being an intermediate either. For the sake of reference in the Race Sheets, I did compare it to the night races at intermediate tracks in 2019. Work with me people, we need more statistical analysis than just the past three Darlington races. Regardless, it’s not just the size that distinguishes Darlington but its shape. The best comparable to Darlington would be a chicken egg. Yes, a literal chicken egg is my comp for Darlington.

In fact, the chicken egg comp may not be the craziest idea when you consider Darlington’s banking. With 25-degree banking in turns 1 and 2 and 23-degree banking in turns 3 and 4, the curvature of the egg takes on a whole new parallel. It’s this banking that lends to drivers taking the quicker high line and sometimes ending up with the characteristic black stripe across the right rear quarter panel as they “kiss” the wall. Austin Dillon will leave Darlington with at least one good scrape. Maybe five if we’re being honest.

Darlington Dominators

When you think about a high-banked track racing at night, a few things should come to mind. First, lots of grip just like a Bristol night race. Second, a driver can sit on the lead. Those two factors have combined to produce lackluster racing as drivers sit on the lead and ride around all night. This was definitely the case last year as Kyle Larson led 284 of 367 laps last year. Once he passed Denny Hamlin on lap 12 it was “all over but the shouting” as my fellow Okies say.

2017 appears to be our anomaly at Darlington as every other race saw the top Hog lead at least 196 laps. Thus, if we’re expecting a “normal” Darlington race our top lap leader should lead around 200 or more laps. As far as a second Hog, we’ve seen a second driver lead 10% or more of the race in every Generation Six race save for last season. If the secondary dominator Sunday night merely averages what the other secondary dominators have done, he’ll lead 52 or so laps. 13 bonus points for laps led isn’t that much. Thus, depending on how qualifying goes Saturday afternoon, you may find yourself liking single dominator builds better.

The only issue with single dominator builds is if you miss with your lone bullet then you’re out on 100+ fantasy points and you will not cash. With a dual dominator build you at least give yourself two shots at the driver who leads the most laps.

For what it’s worth, I’m not worrying about fastest laps. We’ve seen high-banked tracks jumble up the fastest laps this year and I have no reason to think it won’t happen again. It will all be a random matter of who has the cleanest air at that time in the race.

It’s Good to Start Up Front

So, where should our search for Hogs begin? How about the front row?

Let’s recap this graph.

• No driver starting outside of 9th has led the most or second-most laps.
• The average starting position of the top two hogs is 2.9.
• 5/6 races have seen at least one of the cars on the front row lead the most or second-most laps.

In conclusion, passing is hard at Darlington and those with the positional advantage often wield it.

Darlington Versus the 550 Horsepower Package

I know some of you are staring hard at those last two races wondering what happened to the pole-sitter? Especially, when you consider the results the pole-sitter has had in the 550 Horsepower package and this year in general. Well, first let’s look at how the driver starting first has fared at Darlington since the Gen Six car was unveiled.

Looks like sometimes starting first is great and other times it downright sucked. Well, instead of just dealing with that sort of generalization let’s look at just who was the pole-sitter in those races.

2013: Kurt Busch driving the #78 for Furniture Row. This was back when the #78 was a Chevrolet loosely affiliated with Hendrick. Thus, a car capable of throwing down a fast lap but not able to maintain it during the race.

2014: Kevin Harvick driving for Stewart-Haas. Kevin won the race and the championship that year.

2015: Brad Keselowski driving for Roger Penske. Brad finished 7th in points that year.

2016: Kevin Harvick driving for Stewart-Haas.

2017: Kevin Harvick driving for Stewart-Haas, in the first year of the Ford transition. SHR was still figuring out the Ford chassis at this point and it wouldn’t be until a win at Texas that Kevin looked like Kevin.

2018: Denny Hamlin driving for Joe Gibbs, the year Denny failed to win a race for the first time since 2005. Denny won four poles in the 2018 season but ended with no finish better than 8th.

The trend here “seems” to be if the pole-sitter is a great driver in great equipment, lock them in. However, if the pole-sitter is a combination of bad equipment and or bad form then you fade. I know, not the most analytical breakdown but it is a trend that sticks out. If the Lady in Black deems you unworthy to dance with she’ll find another partner. Pole sitters in other 550 HP package races have raced out to the lead this season. If Kyle, Kevin, Brad, Joey, or Martin wins the pole you may as well just write their name in magic marker.

Darlington Model

Come back Saturday evening as I will highlight my preferred cash, tournament, dominator, and punt plays for the Bojangles Southern 500. As of now, I envision a single Dominator build paired with a secondary driver who gets a few Hog points. The other four spots should be occupied by finishing position and place differential, dependent on salary and running order of course.