NASCAR DFS: First Data 500 Cash and GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Following Denny’s Hamlin victory at Kansas Speedway, the Cup series heads east to Martinsville, Virginia. The round of eight will commence around the paperclip for 500 laps with the First Data 500.

Kansas Recap

The end of Kansas ended in a rather “cheeky” manner, as our British cousins would say. For the majority of the race, Ryan Blaney decided to use Kansas as a mock run for Homestead. Rather presumptuous on the number 12 team’s part, for whatever it’s worth. With the laps ticking down, Blaney made contact with the wall after running the high line all afternoon. His contact cut down a tire leaving debris on the track and the field was reset.

Meanwhile, Penske teammate Brad Keselowski had been fighting a terrible car all day. Whatever the number 12’s gameplan was setup wise, it was trash and Keselowski faded all day. By the time of Blaney’s accident, Brad was in danger of losing the last transfer spot. However, the field was so dispersed beforehand, Keselowski felt somewhat safe.

Safety was a relative term as the field got bunched back up and subsequently, Chase Elliott had a real shot to jump Keselowski for spot 8. After a few cautions, Elliott and Keselowski swapped the final spot before a caution on lap 199 changed the 2019 season. A wreck that Brad may or not have caused ended up sending Joey Logano into the infield grass. NASCAR officials called for the yellow flag just mere seconds before leader Denny Hamlin took the white flag. If Hamlin hit the start-finish line before the caution lights lit up, then Keselowski would have advanced. They didn’t and the race went to green-white-checkers. Keselowski got a horrible restart, losing multiple spots and Elliott advanced into the round of eight.

In the end, Blaney’s attempt to practice for Homestead may have cost his Penske teammate his shot at a title.

Round of Eight

With four races remaining in the NASCAR Cup season and the Round of Eight beginning at Martinsville, Kyle Busch stands atop the field with 4046 points. Martin Truex Jr. sits in second (+12), Hamlin in third (+7), and Logano in the final transfer spot in fourth (+2). Two points below the cut line is Kevin Harvick in fifth. Meanwhile, Elliott looms in sixth, six points back of Logano while Kyle Larson (-19) and Blaney (-21) bring in the rear.

This is the point in the playoffs where we really see those playoff points accrued throughout the season come into focus as the drivers with the most wins take the top-three playoff spots. Meanwhile, the drivers whose only wins came in the playoffs find themselves in substantial holes already.

Martinsville in the Spring

First off, if you’re looking for a detailed breakdown of Martinsville, check out my article from the STP 500 back in March. In fact, bookmark your spot here and check out that breakdown. Look at my expectations for that race and cross-check that with how the race turned out. Yes, I can gloat about calling Keselowski a potential dominator. However, I’m going to guess every fantasy NASCAR writer did that weekend. Imagine not touting Keselowski…

The point of reviewing that race is expectations versus reality. It was only the second race we would see in the 750 HP package ever. Phoenix had given us a competitive race but just a snapshot of what was to come, wherein passing was tough and dominators would come from the front. Fast forward 500 laps and Keselowski turned Martinsville into a bad race. Bad is a relative term, I suppose. If you had managed to combine Keselowski and Elliott as a Hog combo, you were loving it. For the rest of us waiting for Busch to move forward, it was boring. Heck, outside of Keselowski fans, watching a singular driver lead nearly 90% (446) of the race was probably boring for them as well.

What else besides Keselowski and his 199 DraftKings points can we take away? Of course, there was Elliott showing his knack for Martinsville after leading 49 laps himself, finishing second after starting seventh. That showed once more that in this package, your Hog candidates need to be top-10 drivers. Furthermore, eight of the 10 drivers who started in the top 10 finished there. Your two exceptions were the pole-sitter Logano, who fought a trash car all day and Larson (sixth) who overqualified his vehicle. Furthermore, would it surprise you that Larson hasn’t been good at a track with almost no banking? Yeah, me neither.

DFS Roster Construction

The big question is do we expect to see this type of race again? If so, then we need to lean heavily on two-dominator lineup builds versus the three we’ve seen in the past. While I think one driver replicating Keselowski’s near domination is probably out of question, seeing two drivers lead nearly all of the laps isn’t. It went fairly unnoticed but in last fall’s race, we just had two drivers lead 10% or more of the race. The duo of Logano and Busch combined to lead 409 laps that day.

It appears the 750 HP package just exacerbated this racing environment. Now, a good driver who ascends to the lead can just squat and hold the lead while the rest of the field jockeys for position. Not exactly fun racing unless you nail these two drivers, especially if you don’t have exposure to the main dominator.

The rest of your roster is going to be a balance of finishing position and place differential.

Impound Race

NASCAR has flipped flopped on this weekend’s schedule more than a fish out of water. As things stand, cars are impounded and the running order won’t be final under Sunday morning. Thus, as positions may not be static I’ve simply highlighted drivers I like for dominators, cash place differential, and finishing position. Don’t forget that when drivers fail tech, they lose their qualifying spot and go to the rear of the field. Chase Elliott is already heading to the rear after changing engines but he’ll still be scored from second. Unless Chase fails tech but we’ll know more in the morning.

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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