NASCAR DFS Picks: Go Bowling at the Glen Cash and GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Following Denny Hamlin’s victory at Pocono, the Cup Series makes one final stop in the northeast. This time, racing goes down at Watkins Glen for the Go Bowling at the Glen. Though not advertised, Sunday will see drivers turn 90 laps around the 2.42-mile road course. Let’s dive in and find some picks for those NASCAR DFS  lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Track Preview

Among the trio of road courses employed in the Cup Series schedule, Watkins Glen is by far the least technical. Sonoma is known for its elevation changes and myriad of turns. The Charlotte Roval is known for sharp turns, braking, and use of the speedway’s backstretch. Whereas Watkins Glen is much more about horsepower with its long straightaways. As you can see to the right, the Glen has several spots where passing comes down to pure muscle. Not to mention how late a driver is willing to brake before entering a turn. The track does have a dogleg, an easy addition that would help pure racing. However, chances are track owners don’t want to trade an addition in track length for a reduction in overall laps.

That all being said, not just any NASCAR driver can walk away from the Glen with a victory. Former winners include AJ Allmendinger, Marcos Ambrose, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Robby Gordon. All drivers with plenty of racing experience outside of paved ovals. While we don’t have any “ringers” in the field like the previously mentioned drivers, we do have a crop of drivers who continue to shine in road race after road race.

 A Broken Record

The point has been made in previous articles but we’re going to play that record again. NASCAR screwed up a good thing when they added segment breaks to road races. In years past at the Glen, you could see any of numerous strategies deployed as teams tried to out-think one another. With guaranteed cautions, those strategies have left the building more or less. The majority of teams chase those precious regular-season points at the end of segments while sacrificing their chances at a win.

However, a few teams, consistently make the points trade-off for their chances at a win and continue to get paid off for their aggressiveness. Granted, it’s teams who not only have their playoff seats locked up but are virtually guaranteed to see the second round. Yet, the point is clear. Teams with a vested interest in the win will continue to pit just before the segment breaks putting themselves in a prime starting position at the beginning of stages two and three and ultimately competing for the win. Meanwhile, fringe playoff teams are fighting for regular-season points and with a little luck will be competing for a top-five at the end of the race.

Watkins Glen 2018 Race Rewind

If you have the extra fifteen minutes be sure to watch this. Chase Elliott was a lap away from losing the win due to fuel.

Lowered Expectations

Due to the lack of laps, fantasy scores will be depressed. Last year’s highest-scoring driver was Chase Elliott with 74 DraftKings points with 26 of those points coming from laps led and fastest lap bonus points. Meanwhile, in second was Kurt Busch who started 36th, grabbed 27 place differential points, yet only scored 62.5 DraftKings points. If we move to 2018, our highest scoring driver was Martin Truex Junior with just 64 DraftKings points, 16 coming via Hog points. Trailing behind Martin was Matt Kenseth with 55.5 DraftKings points. Regardless of how you cut it, points projections should be low for tomorrow. As you’ll see below, scores in the 30’s earned at least a top-ten score in back to back years.

2018 Watkins Glen Top-Ten DraftKings scores:

2017 Watkins Glen Top-Ten DraftKings scores:

Narrowed Expectation

So what does this all mean? When fantasy scores compress, that generally means so should our driver pool. Compress as in the starting range in which you pick drivers gets narrower. If obvious chalk, like last year with Kurt Busch, presents itself than dive in headfirst. However, as evidenced by the 2017 race, shortening that driver pool to the top-twenty may be in our best interests. This, in turn, means not getting crazy chasing place differential. With passing as hard as its ever been, perhaps deploying drivers starting in the high teens who can pick up five to ten spots would be our best bet.

Case in point, last year Paul Menard ($7100) became chalk right next to Kurt Busch after getting sent to the rear. Menard advanced as far as his equipment/ ability could get him and he ended his day in 28th. Menard’s 25 DK points tied for him the 17th best score with Ryan Newman. Directly below Menard was Austin Dillon ($7000) who started 26th, finished 27th, and scored 14 DK points. Below Dillon was Matt Kenseth ($6900) who nearly replicated Dillon’s effort by starting 28th, finishing 29th, and scored 12 DK points. However, at $6700 was Erik Jones who started 9th, finished 5th, and wound up with 43.5 DK points.

While Erik was nothing close to a safe, cash-game pick, the two drivers below Erik were. William Byron rolled off the grid 17th, finished 8th, and ended his day with 7th highest score. At a $100 discount from Byron was Alex Bowman who went 22nd to 14th and scored the 11th most points. A Menard to Byron pivot would have netted 19 more DraftKings points.

Roster Construction

However, this is all conjecture as it’s another impound weekend. Before last weekend, the past few impound races had been fairly uneventful. However, as I suggested, getting closer to the playoffs would push teams to push the envelope. Boom, 1/4 of the field failed inspection. Could teams be so bold as to push this inspection envelope for a second straight weekend? Perhaps, but we won’t know until Sunday morning.

As of now, I’m projecting lineups to be based around a single dominator. Last year was the taste of things to come with road races in the present as Chase Elliott led 52 laps. Elliott’s 52 laps led were the most at Watkins Glen in the Generation Six era and the first time over 30 since 2013. At Sonoma earlier this year, Martin Truex Junior led 56 of 90 laps grabbing the lead in chunks of 13, 22, and 24 lap segments. I expect more of the same this year at the Glen as one driver should be able to wrangle away the lead for large portions of the race.

Where should you look for a potential dominator?

Past races say potential Hogs should come from the top five. However, perhaps not the pole sitter with their average finishing position of 20th. Beyond our dominator, lineups should be balanced with drivers in the top-twenty as mentioned before. We not only want drivers who we can project to pick up 5-10 place differential spots. We also want drivers who could possibly sneak into the top ten by the end of the race.

Dominators (sp)

It pains me to pretend that dominator is an actual word in the English lexicon. God knows how many former English teachers of mine die a little inside when I use it. Regardless, I think our dominator pool is narrow and it’s only the drivers starting top-six. Chase should lead the first twenty or so laps much like Kyle Busch did today. Hopefully, Chase’s day ends better than Kyle’s did. I’m not going to give William Byron attention as a lap leader but crazier things have happened.

If the trend of the pole-sitter leading laps but not being optimal continues than it’s either Kyle Busch or Martin Truex Junior who assume that position as the top fantasy scorer. Kyle Larson has a history of over qualifying at road races so I’m going to assume he falls back again. Finally, Denny Hamlin won this race two seasons ago and he continues to roll in with good form.

In order, I would rank the drivers Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Junior, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and William Byron. As per the rest of the drivers filling out your lineups, check the Race Sheets below where I highlight my preferred cash vs. gpp plays.

Watkins Glen Model

Potential Dominator = Orange. Finishing Position = Blue. Cash Place Differential = Green. Preferred Punts = Pink.