The field is set for Sunday’s Auto Club 400 with Clint Bowyer on the pole. Which means it’s time to break down my top NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel! First though, if you haven’t read my preview for Sunday’s race please do so. These preview articles drop every Wednesday morning. It gives you the details you need to kickstart your weekly research process. If you had read that preview you would know my exact leanings toward the polesitter. However, we will breakdown what to do with the driver sitting P1 so don’t fret. Trust me, I know you’re confused.
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Does Practice Data Even Matter?
Before we go through the drivers I prefer for NASCAR DFS purposes, let’s talk about practice. Yes, Allen Iverson, practice!
Friday morning I began thinking aloud on twitter about practice.
A NASCAR practice thread:
Another day of practice equals another data set to add to a young season where we don’t really count the first race…
The biggest debate is how much of practice actually translates into the race itself?
— Marshall Phillips ن (@PhillBennetzen) February 28, 2020
In the midst of rambling off numbers, PJ Walsh of Action Network brought up a good point. The practice numbers correlated more to actual finish at Auto Club, perhaps, because of tire wear. That idea definitely makes sense. The better you can navigate the car – the less tire wear you’ll incur. The less your tires fall off – the more speed you’ll be able to carry. Finally, more speed – quicker laps.
Thus, I’m going to treat Friday’s practice times as a true indicator of speed. I believe you should too when it comes down to 1 v 1 decisions.
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What to do with Clint Bowyer
This may be the biggest decision we all make this weekend. He’s on the pole and being the pole-sitter has usually been good in terms of fantasy viability. I would say that Clint’s ability to lead a race is better than Austin Dillon of last year at this time. Thus, I don’t think you really have to worry about Bowyer losing the lead on lap one and becoming an afterthought. However, let’s talk this one out.
Jeff Gordon noted in the FOX broadcast that SHR had trimmed their cars out for qualifying. Meanwhile, Clint was the last car to go out and qualify before the sun broke through. After the sun came out, times went down as the track lost grip. Thus, I think Bowyer’s Q time was a result of body modifications and luck. The luck, thanks in part to the clouds, is just random chance. However, we’ve seen cars trimmed out for qualifying fade in long runs.
In the second practice session, Bowyer ran no consecutive span longer than five laps. So, we don’t really know just what his car will do once the green flag waves and cars settle in. Somehow, in Bowyer’s lengthy career, he only has three poles to his name. His last one came at Vegas in 2019, a race in which he led one lap. While I don’t know if one lap is in Bowyer’s future, I can easily see single digits with the pack of potential leaders behind him.
So, we fade, right? It depends on what you’re looking for. At his price on both sites, he can make value if you believe he hangs around 4th-8th all day. If you think his trim choices hurt him continually as he fades into the teens, then you’re looking at a fade.
Chalky Martin Truex Junior
The number one owned NASCAR DFS play on Sunday should be Martin and for good reason. After failing technical inspection three times, he starts dead last as his punishment. Honestly, you don’t need numbers or stats to back up playing Truex in the 38th starting spot.  In fact, if you locked in 100% Truex on Sunday, I wouldn’t bat an eye. The only legitimate reason you don’t play Martin is for ownership reasons in tournaments.
Potential NASCAR DFS Lap Leaders
If history is any indication of future events then we have two criteria for lap leaders.
- They needed to post fast short and long-run speeds in practice.
- They need to start as close to the front as possible.
Using those two metrics, here are my drivers most likely to lead laps Sunday.
Alex Bowman 3rd ($10,000 Fanduel, $8800 Draftkings) – Alex has had the car to beat all weekend by dropping the fastest time in every practice run he participated in. One lap, five-lap, or ten laps… it didn’t matter. The only thing between Bowman and the lead is over-trimmed Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson who showed no speed in P2. Although the narrative street gods will be pulling hard for JJ, Bowman could run away with this lead early on.
Joey Logano 7th ($13,500 Fanduel, $10900 Draftkings) – Logano appears to me to be the best overall bet to win Sunday. Much like last Sunday at Vegas, he has the history matched by a car that excels in long runs. Joey comes into Auto Club with three straight top-five finishes including 2nd last year. In practice 2, his car got better as the run went longer. He ran the 2nd best 10-lap average and topped in the 15-lap interval.
Oh yeah, he has the race sponsor on his hood again…
Honorable mentions are saved for Kevin Harvick starting 5th as well as Kyle Larson in 9th. My fear with Kevin is the same I have for Bowyer – his qualifying speed doesn’t truly represent his car’s race speed. Larson, however, got loose and screwed up his q time. He ran fast times in practice and after a long green-flag run could easily make his way to the lead.
NASCAR DFS GPP Place Differential Plays
Thanks to the sun coming out, as well as quick-dry on the track, we had some drivers lay down bad Q times.
In fact, we have so many, you could build a team with no lap leaders and just chase place differential/finishing position. This will probably be the preferred method for lineups in cash on DraftKings. However, this may be best way on Fanduel, regardless of cash or tournament. Don’t forget, with just 200 advertised laps, only 20 laps led points are up for grabs on Fanduel.
Brad Keselowski 15th ($12000 Fanduel, $10000 Draftkings) – Just like his Penske teammate, Brad has three straight top-five finishes to his name. In fact, Brad came in second last year leading the second-most laps from the 13th position.
Ryan Blaney 16th ($10500 Fanduel, $9400 Draftkings) – My favorite play, outside of Truex, maybe the driver of the #12 on Sunday. The 2020 points leader, might be Joey Logano with 30% fewer calories at this point. While he doesn’t have the top-five finishes at ACS to speak of, he does have top-tens. In fact, his finishes at Auto Club have steadily gotten better each year. Now he comes in with a car that ranked 4th or better in each lap interval measured in P2.
P.S. don’t forget, he has the paint scheme sure to incur favor from the racing gods and maybe a little love from the basketball ones too.
You can add Kyle Busch to this list as well. However, I don’t know if I really want to pay his salary for results I get in cheaper drivers with faster equipment that I listed above.
NASCAR DFS Cash Place Differential Plays
If you don’t like weeks when cash games are 3v3 or 2v2, this may be the week to sit out.
Truex will be an automatic play starting 38th. However, we also have the underpriced Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones in 28th/ 29th. The unintentional JGR stack should be the three highest owned drivers across the industry. They lock you into a great floor for fantasy points via place differential. Furthermore, they only cost you $22,300 on Draftkings and $32,300 on Fanduel. Lock and load in cash and move on.
Outside of those three, I feel like going back to Austin Dillon in 25th is the smart move. He got priced up after his 4th place finish last week but has a safe floor thanks to his bad qualifying attempt. If you need a cheaper option, going down to Ross Chastain starting 27th gives you less of a ceiling but perhaps a better floor costs considered.
As far as cheap drivers, I honestly don’t like any of them. Daniel Suarez is still overpriced on Draftkings and everyone else seems destined to get lapped and thus stuck in the 30’s. If you need one on Draftkings, I would just go back to the well with Corey Lajoie and John Hunter Nemechek. You know both drivers are going to compete and that’s all we can ask for. Flip a coin and maybe you pick the one who lingers on the edge of the lead lap all day. Speed-wise, they both look comparable, so I don’t see anything distinguishing this week outside of price.
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