After a wild few weeks at Daytona to open up the season, NASCAR will enter its first mile and a half intermediate track in what feels like the real start to the 2021 NASCAR season. The racing might not be as exciting at these types of tracks, but we have more data to look at when constructing lineups this weekend. With that being said, let’s dive into this slate and discuss how we should approach this from a DraftKings and FanDuel perspective. Let’s get into some NASCAR DFS picks for the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Dixie Vodka 400 NASCAR DFS Strategy | DraftKings & FanDuel
The strategy at these mile and a half tracks isn’t anything out of the normal. We are typically looking at two to three dominator builds (potential lap leaders) mixed in with potential place differential plays and drivers that have high-finishing position upside. One thing to note for Homestead, is that this is a high tire wear track, so looking at how drivers did at similar tracks last year will be important in our lineup building process this weekend.
Upper-Tier Driver Picks
Kyle Larson $10,700 DraftKings – $11,300 FanDuel (17th)
Anytime NASCAR heads to Homestead, Kyle Larson should be on fantasy players radars. He didn’t get to run this race last year due to his suspension, but he has been elite here in recent memory. The way Homestead in constructed, the fastest way around the track is up near the wall, which is a driving style that Larson excels at. He has no problem riding the wall and posting strong results here at Homestead. In fact, he leads all drivers in fantasy points per race, laps led, and fast laps the past six races at this track. It should also be mentioned that Larson is now in the No. 5 car for Hendrick Motorsports, which is an upgrade from his No. 42 car in previous years at Chip Ganassi Racing. Starting 17th, he will need to work his way through the field to start, so he’s best paired with a potential early lap leader to lock in those early dominator points.
Kevin Harvick $10,100 DraftKings – $14,000 (4th)
He may have not made the final four last year, but Harvick had the best season of any driver and was overall dominant. The first two races were not really tracks where we would target Harvick, as he was starting near the front at Daytona and he didn’t show much promise at the road course in previous attempts. But he was last year’s most profitable driver as he showed up in the optimal lineup more often than any other driver (38.89% of the time). And Homestead has been a very strong track for Harvick besides last year blunder where he got into an incident on pit road early on, which killed his chances of having a strong race. If the 2020 Harvick speed is back in 2021, he should challenge for the lead and be a potential dominator at a price that is undervaluing him a bit from what we saw out of him last year.
Denny Hamlin $9,600 DraftKings – $13,500 FanDuel (1st)
Speaking of early lap leaders, Denny Hamlin is the number one candidate to dominate this race early on Sunday afternoon. For the fifth time in six races at Homestead, Hamlin will start on the pole and lead the field into turn one this weekend. His history at Homestead wasn’t spectacular prior to last years race, but he put on a clinic in 2020 and absolutely dominated this race on his way to one of many wins over the course of the season. Hamlin was dominant at similar track types last season and trailed only the 2020 NASCAR champion Chase Elliott, in average green flag speed at the high tire wear tracks. Hamlin is severely underpriced for his dominator potential over on DraftKings.
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Mid-Tier Driver Picks
Tyler Reddick $8,500 DraftKings – $9,200 FanDuel (35th)
The pricing on Reddick is too low for someone who is starting so far back in the field and has elite place differential upside on Sunday. Like Larson, Reddick is a wall-rider, which is the preferred way around the track here. And Reddick used this to his advantage in his first career cup start at Homestead last season. He started near the back and flew through the field leading all drivers in fast laps, while accumulating a total of nearly 85 DraftKings points. Expect him to be chalky on this slate, but he’s an elite play in all formats and a staple in cash games.
Matt DiBenedetto $8,800 DraftKings – $7,200 FanDuel (37th)
Like Reddick, Matty D has had a forgettable start to the season and will be starting in the back of the pack on Sunday. This makes him an elite place differential play who can realistically pick up twenty some spots once the race is all said and done. His average finish on these track types this year was just inside the Top-15, which would net him over 50 fantasy points this weekend. He doesn’t have the upside a dominator would, but he’s a nice high-floor play to pair with potential dominators in your lineups.
Austin Dillon $7,700 DraftKings – $8,000 FanDuel (22nd)
With Dillon being sandwiched in between a a mess of place differential plays starting in the 30s, he has a real chance of being overlooked this weekend despite his success at these track types last season. AD was a Top-15 machine last year at similar tracks finishing within that mark 80 percent of the time. A feat. that only top tier drivers like Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch were able to accomplish. Looking at Homestead numbers specifically, he’s finished inside the Top-12 each of the past three races and inside the Top-15 each of the past six. His starting spot isn’t as appealing as others in his price range, but that can be used to your advantage in tournaments this weekend as a pivot off of chalkier drivers.
Value Driver Picks
Ross Chastain $7,400 DraftKings – $6,000 FanDuel (32nd)
Looking at Chastain’s history, it’s not going to look impressive as he was in junk equipment for the entirety of his career in the cup series. This year, he’s moved up the ranks and is now in the No. 42 car (Kyle Larson’s former car) for Chip Ganassi Racing. He won’t put up the same numbers Kyle Larson did, but this is definitely a massive upgrade for him and he should be able to compete for Top-20 finishes. Starting this far back, he’s in play as a cheaper place differential play to provide some floor to your lineups.
Ryan Newman $6,300 DraftKings – $6,000 FanDuel (23rd)
The value this week, especially on DraftKings, is one of the worst I have seen in quite some time playing fantasy NASCAR. Most of the usual suspects are starting much further up than they normally do making them basically unplayable in our lineups. So we may have to make some uncomfortable decisions down low this week, which is fine as everyone else will have the same dilemma as well. Newman is never an exciting play, but he is starting far enough back where I think he can at-least hold his ground or gain a few spots. Not expecting much here, but as I said, it’s a waste land down low this week.
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