The field is set for Saturday’s Xfinity race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with Myatt Snider and Austin Cindric on the front row. Let’s jump into the top DraftKings NASCAR DFS picks for the Alsco Uniforms 300.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
As I scroll through the loop data from the past six Xfinity races at Las Vegas, I see a strong theme. We always seem to get one strong dominator, as in scoring north of 100 DraftKings points. Save for Kyle Busch in the spring 2019 race, these dominators are leading at least 80 of 200 laps. Yet Busch’s 100-point day came on the heels of 50-plus fastest laps. Regardless, we should expect to see the top lap leader in that range as well, knocking down at least 100 fantasy points via laps led and fastest-lap points.
Whether it’s cash or tournaments, I believe lineups start with one dominator from a driver in the top 10. After that, we have a bevy of place-differential drivers to choose from. For tournaments, you’re going to have to play around with which cheap-end drivers (who won’t start and park) that allow you a dominator plus place-differential drivers with top-10 upside.
Alsco Uniforms 300 NASCAR DFS Picks
Austin Cindric, 2nd ($10,500) — Cash/GPP (Dominator/Core)
Las Vegas has typically been a Ford track. In the days of its infancy, Jack Roush was king of the hill here. In the past decade, the crown has gone from Roush to Penske in the Cup Series and Stewart-Haas (Fred Biagi to be more accurate) in the Xfinity Series. With Chase Briscoe promoted to the Cup Series, that leaves Cindric as the best Ford in the field. Luckily for him, he starts alongside Myatt Snider on the front row, a formidable but easy foe to pass on the initial green flag.
Outside of manufacturer touting, Cindric should always be on our radars at intermediate ovals. He ran well here last year, finishing sixth and second in the Spring 2020 race, leading 39 laps in the process. At all intermediate ovals in 2020, Cindric had three wins, eight top-five finishes and 514 laps led in the last 10 intermediate races alone. Cindric is the odds-on favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to win at +190.
Daniel Hemric, 3rd ($9,200) — GPP (Dominator)
As much as I want to dismiss Hemric, I’m at the point that I can’t. Running in perhaps the best equipment he’s ever seen, Hemric has started this 2021 season off with finishes of ninth, third and third last weekend at Homestead. Eventually, this quality car is going to intersect with Hemric’s talent and we’re going to get a dominator performance out of the No. 18 car. It never hurts to be early instead of chasing a performance the week prior.
While I can’t project Hemric for a win, who currently has the seventh-highest odds to win, we can give him a top-five finish and dominator points in the process. Unfortunately for Hemric, he neither has the personal talent or car to beat out Cindric outright. However, we can never rule out shenanigans on the track or Pit Road that allow Hemric to get in front of Cindric and take advantage of clean air.
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Riley Herbst, 12th ($9,000) — GPP
Despite not having near the same DFS appeal as last week, I’m back on Herbst in tournaments this weekend. We have to look at the car he’s piloting. While not on the same level as Briscoe, Herbst is talented in his own right. Now he gets the reigns of this car that Briscoe piloted to two wins and 240 combined laps led at Las Vegas in 2020. The factor in Briscoe’s favor in both instances was starting on the front tow, which Herbst obviously had. However, dialing in this setup should be a piece of cake for the No. 98 team, and we should see Herbst in the top five in no time.
Matt Mills, 31st ($4,700)
Jesse Little, 32nd ($5,000)
Stefan Parsons, 33rd ($5,200) — GPP
Pick a B.J. McLeod Racing driver. Pick any B.J. McLeod Racing driver.
Scattered between 15th and 33rd, there are a slew of drivers in the $4,000 and $5,000 range. Not many of them have any upside, and most seemed destined to fall back if not just start and park. So just hold your nose and take one of these guys. Considering their starting positions, they give you a little more fantasy floor than either Timmy Hill, Kyle Weatherman or David Starr, who may randomly compete or might just have a phantom radiator issue.
If looking for a ranking of the three McLeod drivers, I would go Parsons, Mills and finally Little. Parsons at least has a top-20 finish to his name at Vegas last fall. Little spiked with a 14th-place finish in this race last year but currently is sponsorless, according to the Friday entrant list. While not always a hard-and-fast rule, seeing a sponsorless car is typically an indicator of a car destined to end its day early. For what it’s worth, Starr may not be worth chasing as the preferred punt play, as Whataburger is not sponsoring the No. 13 this week at the Alsco Uniforms 300.
Noah Gragson, 34th ($11,300) Cash/ GPP
Unless you forego access to a dominator from the top 10 and have no issue double-punting, you’re probably only playing one high-priced driver from the 30s. Tyler Reddick has more place-differential potential and won here as recently as the fall of 2019, but I don’t see this race playing out like last week at Homestead. Playing Reddick at nearly $12,000 worked out last week with his second-place finish. I don’t know if he has that sort of upside this week.
Justin Allgaier has more place differential as well and is cheaper. However, in 13 career starts, Allgaier has zero wins at Las Vegas and averages just over eight laps led per race. Since joining J.R. Motorsports in 2016, Allgaier has only failed to finish outside of the top-10 once — an engine failure in the Spring-2019 race. However, with salaries above $11,000, I want more than just a top-10 finish. I want a driver with dominator potential as well as the ability to win, that’s why I’m siding with Noah Gragson.
Despite this starting position, Gragson still has the second-best odds to win at +550. In Gragson’s four starts with J.R. Motorsports, his worst finish was sixth back in 2019. Last week, we saw a similar scenario with Gragson having marched through the field and was well on his way to victory before David Starr happened. This week he has a few more cars to drive past but I full anticipate Gragson to be a factor in the final stage.
Gray Gaulding, 36th ($6,700) Cash
In cash games we need a cheaper floor play, and Gaulding fits the bill. Starting 36th, he comes with a fairly safe floor, as he should pick up at least 10 spots. He has this floor because we know he will compete as has been the M.O. for the No. 52 team. In competitive rides, the past few seasons — 2007 and 2008 — Gaulding had finishes of 24th, seventh and 12th.
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