The field is set for Friday night’s race under the lights of Las Vegas with Ben Rhodes and Sheldon Creed on the front row. Let’s dive into the top DraftKings NASCAR DFS picks for the Bucked Up 200.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
We have a fly in the DFS ointment, and its name is Kyle Busch. Busch is our lone Cup entrant in tonight’s Bucked Up 200 Trucks race, racing for his own team in the No. 51. Busch’s odds to win are -125, while the next closest driver is the 2020 champion Sheldon Creed at +550. Based on his history here and elsewhere in the Trucks Series, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Busch is going to win. The only problem is his salary and what rostering him forces you to do with the rest of your lineup.
In cash games, I think it’s a safe bet to just chase place differential, and that means starting your lineup with Busch. However, in tournaments his salary forces you to evaluate just how good of a point-per-dollar play he is compared to the rest of the high-priced drivers. If you play Busch in tournaments, you basically get to play him with one other dominator, and then you’re using roughly $25,000 for four other drivers. You can try to get away from Busch and play the cheaper place-differential drivers, but you’ll be sweating every lap you see that No. 51 advancing up the board.
Bucked Up 200 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings Tonight
Sheldon Creed, 2nd ($9,800) — GPP
Depending on what you do or don’t do with Busch, you may only have one roster spot available for an early dominator. If you find yourself in that position, my best bet is to play Creed in that position as the Stage 1 leader. Since joining GMS, his finishes at Las Vegas have been consistent, with four straight top-10 finishes, including second here last fall. At intermediate tracks as a whole, Creed had two wins (Kansas and Texas) and finished top five in three other events in 2020.
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Tate Fogleman, 20th ($5,500) — GPP
This Trucks slate is what I call a glue week. We need someone cheap who can make a lineup stick. While I don’t endorse getting too cheap with drivers like Jennifer Jo Cobb, Jesse Iwuji or B.J. McLeod, I can make a case for Fogleman. Racing for Randy Young last season, Fogleman didn’t have a single top-10 finish to his name in the No. 2. However, he did have plenty of top-20 finishes, and you can feel pretty confident that Fogleman will not get called down Pit Road for a phantom issue. At his salary, if he can advance a few positions, he’ll be a valuable asset as the cheap piece that allows you to squeeze in the top-tier drivers.
If maxing out 20 lineups, a pivot off Fogleman could be his similarly priced teammate Kris Wright ($5,200), starting 15th. With five fewer positions to gain, he doesn’t have nearly the floor or upside of Fogleman. We also saw Wright one time last year, and that was in the Daytona Road Course race. What we get from Wright is up in the air. However, when it comes to punts, we never put all of our eggs into one basket unless another Ty Gibbs mispricing occurs. Neither Fogleman nor Wright is Gibbs, so we play one in lieu of the other in tournaments.
Tanner Gray, 22nd ($7,000) — Cash
For cash games this week, you’re going to need at least one moderately priced driver with place-differential upside. While not a punt, Gray gives you access to a driver who should pick up 10 spots at the very least. If things fall Gray’s way, then his finish nets 15 to 20 place-differential points. In 2020, Gray brought home back-to-back top-eight finishes at Las Vegas. All of Gray’s races at intermediate tracks resulted in top-12 finishes in 2020.
Kyle Busch, 29th ($15,000) — Cash/GPP
The question with Busch isn’t “should” you play him. It’s more about can you play him. When you consider his exorbitant salary, it makes this discussion legitimate. Yes, he has won the past three Las Vegas Spring races. Yes, he won four of the five events he raced in last year in the Trucks Series. However, this debate all comes down to does it make roster construction sense to pay this much for Busch when there are three viable drivers below him on the starting grid with cheaper salaries?
Let’s look at it this way: In Busch’s past three starts at Las Vegas in the Trucks, his DraftKings points totals have gone 106, 98 and 68. If he approaches 100 fantasy points, thanks in part to leading half or more of the race, then you will be happy you rostered the most expensive driver on the board. Aiding Busch will be all of this place differential. You may not need Busch to lead his typical 100 laps in order for him to hit 100 points again. However, at this salary, you are definitely going to need dominator points because pure place differential will not cut it.
Austin Hill, 31st ($11,000) — Cash/GPP
It is not often we get a realistic winner this far back. However, thanks to the formula for the starting grid, we get Hill starting back in the 30s. For a time, Hill was pretty unspectacular at Las Vegas, with a finish of 10th being his best run. Yet he turned that around in the fall race of 2019, winning that event. Since then, his finishes have gone third and first. Although these finishes suggest he may be better at Las Vegas when the track is hot and slick, his third-place finish in this race last year points to a driver that is capable of winning tonight’s Bucked Up 200.
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