NASCAR DFS Gas-N-Go: Toyota Owners 400 Picks, DraftKings + FanDuel

The field is set for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 race at Richmond, with Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin on the front row. Using the Awesemo expert projections and tools, let’s dive into the some of NASCAR DFS picks that are popping in the projections for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR DFS Picks

Martin Truex Jr., 1st ($14,000 FanDuel, $11,400 DraftKings)

Statistically Truex is king at Richmond. In every category, from 2018-20 Truex is leading or ranking second in practically every metric. His only real competition in these numbers is Kyle Busch, a driver who cannot be a dominator in this no-practice era. In last year’s COVID-affected race, Busch led just four laps all night despite starting sixth.

Regardless, what matters most are Truex’s 32.8 fastest laps and 115.8 laps-led averages in the past five Richmond events. In fact, Truex has led over 100 laps in six of the past eight Richmond races. He has a penchant for finding the front and accumulating tons of dominator points.

The only hesitation with Truex is how he has fared in this 750-horsepower package thus far. Yes, he won at both Phoenix and Martinsville. However, he averaged just 42 laps led in those races Hopefully starting out front with the preferred lane will solve this issue.

Denny Hamlin, 2nd ($13,000 FanDuel, $11,000 DraftKings)

Hamlin is the driver to build around if looking for consistency. It is not hyperbolic to project yet another top-five finish for Hamlin, if not an outright win – currently sitting at +600 with the second-best winning odds, via DraftKings Sportsbook. Along with that high finish is going to come laps led, something he has failed to do just once this season (Homestead). Based on his 2021 consistency, last week at Martinsville and his prior Richmond history, Hamlin could lead the most laps this Sunday.

Ryan Blaney, 7th ($10,200 FanDuel, $9,100 DraftKings)

The easy DFS thought process for most people this week is just to play the guys who were good at Martinsville last week. While that will probably work with our drivers atop the front row, it does not for Blaney. In his nine career starts at Richmond, his best finish is 17th two years ago. Overall, his average finish is 24.9 with zero laps led and just 3.9 fastest laps per race.

Blaney has improved leaps and bounds over the years and has become an impressive short-track specialist. However, isolating his Martinsville and Bristol numbers versus that of Richmond shows a stark difference. However, here at this 0.75-mile venue, Blaney puts up numbers comparable to Corey LaJoie or Ryan Preece. Know that this is by far one of, if not his worst track on the circuit.

Fade the recency bias, and fade the hype for a supposedly underpriced driver.

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Austin Dillon, 11th ($8,500 FanDuel, $7,500 DraftKings)

Tuesday’s preview mentioned that in last year’s race Tyler Reddick became the driver needed in tournaments because of his finishing position aided points. This year’s candidate to fill that role is Dillon starting 11th. On the periphery, it’s hard to play Dillon starting this high and expecting a positive outcome. However, for the year Dillon has been better than his normal milquetoast self. His worst finish thus far is 34th at the Daytona Road Course; every other finish has been 17th or better. Furthermore, Dillon has three top-six finishes in his last four Richmond races, including fourth last year, wherein he led the second-most laps.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 14th ($6,300 FanDuel, $6,200 DraftKings)

Stenhouse is the cheaper version of Dillon with less upside to sneak away with dominator points. He might sneak up on those not paying attention this season, with no finish outside of the teens, save for his second-place finish at Bristol. Through these eight races, Stenhouse has only finished off the lead lap once, tying him for second in that category with Truex, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick.

With no sign of why his run of lead-lap finishes should end this week at Richmond, a track he’s finished on the lead lap in three of the past five Richmond races, Stenhouse should finish around where he starts. Projecting Stenhouse for 35 DraftKings points isn’t exhilarating, but DraftKings has made the lower-$6,000 range tough once again. Either play Stenhouse, go up to Chris Buescher with even more fragility starting 12th, go down to the volatile Ross Chastain at $6,000 or plunge down into the $5,000 range where every one of these drivers could end up one or multiple laps down.

Brad Keselowski, 20th (13,500 FanDuel, $12,000 DraftKings)

Starting 20th, last year’s Richmond winner will have an uphill climb getting to the lead, and only twice has any driver starting worse than 18th led any laps at Richmond since 2018. However, Keselowski has led at least 39 laps in each of the past four Richmond races and finished in the top 10 in all of them. Starting 20th means Keselowski won’t need nearly as many dominator points, thanks to his place differential potential.

The last time Keselowski started this far back at Richmond was the spring 2018 race when he started 28th. That evening he finished eighth but led no laps in the process. Know that a similar race could play out for Keselowski on Sunday as he works his way forward.

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Daniel Suarez, 27th ($5,300 FanDuel, $6,600 DraftKings)

Suarez’s finished 29th at Richmond last season in the Gaunt Brothers No. 96. But he has hung around the top 10 just about every other Richmond race, so when Suarez has good equipment, he’s more than capable of bringing home good finish. While this Trackhouse Racing No. 99 won’t be as good as his Joe Gibbs or Stewart-Haas rides, this is still a step up compared to what he had last season.

Furthermore, this car has an affiliation with Richard Childress Racing. This matters because Dillon has fared very well at Richmond, and Tyler Reddick spiked here last season, finishing 11th. If the preparation going into those cars goes into Suarez’s vehicle, he should have a positive Sunday Suarez.

Austin Cindric, 38th ($6,000 FanDuel)

Rather than watching Larson and Blaney fight for the win at Atlanta, gamers should have watched Cindric was doing that evening. He was priced up high on DraftKings, started dead last and became a pivotal ownership play in tournaments. Those who projected him to finish near the top 10 had to play him regardless of format. However, he was better suited for cash for those who saw him in the imd-20s. By the end of that Atlanta race, Cindric crossed the line two laps down in 22nd place.

Cindric is driving in just his third Cup start in his first race in the 750-horsepower package, albeit dead last. In six Xfinity starts at Richmond, Cindric has four top-five finishes, including back-to-back runner-ups in 2019. However, this package will be a different animal compared to what he’s used to driving in the Xfinity Series.

Therefore, those who think he will do what Blaney has been unable to do in five years and finish top 12, then he needs to be played everywhere. If it’s another low-20s finish, then he is a third driver in cash. At his salary on FanDuel, projecting him around 24th is absolutely fine. However, $9,000 for those results is untenable.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com