NASCAR DFS Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel

Below you can see Stokastic’s NASCAR DFS Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re interested in other premium content, head over to Stokastic’s NASCAR Ownership Projections, NASCAR DFS Projections, and Stokastic’s Top Driver Tool, which gives the probability that each driver will end up in a winning DFS lineup. For FREE DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS content, including FREE DFS Strategy shows, NASCAR DFS cheat sheets and picks, check out our NASCAR home page!

How to Use NASCAR DFS Projections

Update: Projections now give a breakdown for points scored by finishing position + place differential (Placement Points) and laps led + fastest laps (Dominator Points). For FanDuel a lot of points are given to drivers for completing laps, but that’s not useful for DFS because to win you need your drivers to finish the race. I suggest using my version of the projections without those points included for building your fantasy lineups. A full breakdown of scoring categories is listed in the “Detailed” tab.

NASCAR DFS Projections

Last Projections Update: 4 days ago

DraftKings

Name	Projection	Starting Position	DK Salary	DK Value	Odds to Win	Placement Points	Dominator Points	PP/$1k	DP/$1k
Name	Projection	Starting Position	DK Salary	DK Value	Odds to Win	Placement Points	Dominator Points	PP/$1k	DP/$1k
Kyle Larson	62.53	1	11,000	5.68	5.16	29.74	34.80	2.70	3.16
Ty Gibbs	38.49	2	8,500	4.53	14.82	24.35	15.10	2.87	1.78
Christopher Bell	33.91	3	9,500	3.57	19.72	23.56	11.10	2.48	1.17
Tyler Reddick	53.92	4	10,000	5.39	5.16	32.72	22.60	3.27	2.26
Chase Briscoe	15.27	5	7,700	1.98	137.29	12.44	3.07	1.62	0.40
William Byron	45.40	6	10,800	4.20	8.69	31.44	14.93	2.91	1.38
Ryan Blaney	36.86	7	10,200	3.61	16.43	28.15	9.35	2.76	0.92
Austin Cindric	5.03	8	6,400	0.79	340.55	4.33	0.76	0.68	0.12
Martin Truex Jr	40.05	9	9,700	4.13	12.46	30.98	9.72	3.19	1.00
Bubba Wallace	34.50	10	8,700	3.97	21.41	28.20	6.77	3.24	0.78
Denny Hamlin	43.86	11	10,500	4.18	10.93	33.86	10.71	3.22	1.02
Ross Chastain	32.14	12	9,200	3.49	31.94	27.52	4.98	2.99	0.54
Michael McDowell	8.71	13	6,200	1.41	340.55	8.13	0.64	1.31	0.10
Alex Bowman	28.06	14	8,400	3.34	60.79	24.98	3.34	2.97	0.40
Austin Dillon	10.67	15	6,300	1.69	340.55	10.13	0.59	1.61	0.09
Carson Hocevar	11.52	16	5,900	1.95	340.55	10.99	0.58	1.86	0.10
Daniel Suarez	22.79	17	7,200	3.17	160.86	21.21	1.72	2.95	0.24
Zane Smith	13.61	18	5,500	2.47	340.55	13.03	0.63	2.37	0.11
Chris Buescher	30.24	19	8,000	3.78	81.54	27.78	2.66	3.47	0.33
Joey Logano	36.36	20	8,800	4.13	46.94	32.70	3.95	3.72	0.45
Noah Gragson	17.10	21	7,500	2.28	209.78	16.42	0.74	2.19	0.10
Brad Keselowski	33.31	22	8,200	4.06	81.54	30.78	2.75	3.75	0.34
Corey LaJoie	12.24	23	5,800	2.11	628.68	11.94	0.33	2.06	0.06
Chase Elliott	40.22	24	9,300	4.32	46.94	36.67	3.84	3.94	0.41
Josh Berry	20.82	25	6,800	3.06	286.95	19.96	0.94	2.93	0.14
Ryan Preece	21.44	26	5,700	3.76	340.55	20.92	0.57	3.67	0.10
Erik Jones	32.84	27	7,000	4.69	160.86	31.08	1.90	4.44	0.27
Todd Gilliland	17.14	28	5,600	3.06	782.85	16.83	0.34	3.00	0.06
Harrison Burton	12.80	29	5,400	2.37	1,448.69	12.71	0.10	2.35	0.02
John H. Nemechek	25.51	30	6,500	3.92	340.55	24.97	0.58	3.84	0.09
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	20.00	31	6,100	3.28	628.68	19.76	0.25	3.24	0.04
Justin Haley	20.67	32	5,300	3.90	1,106.99	20.43	0.26	3.86	0.05
Kaz Grala	9.57	33	5,100	1.88	3,344.60	9.53	0.04	1.87	0.01
Austin Hill	29.50	34	6,000	4.92	340.55	28.91	0.64	4.82	0.11
Kyle Busch	53.89	35	9,000	5.99	35.60	49.59	4.64	5.51	0.52
Ty Dillon	24.88	36	5,000	4.98	1,106.99	24.61	0.29	4.92	0.06
Jimmie Johnson	25.88	37	6,700	3.86	782.85	25.65	0.25	3.83	0.04
Daniel Hemric	22.14	38	5,200	4.26	1,448.69	21.99	0.17	4.23	0.03

FanDuel

Name	Projection	Projection-Laps	Starting Position	FD Salary	FD Value	NoLapsValue	Odds to Win	Placement Points	Dominator Points
Name	Projection	Projection-Laps	Starting Position	FD Salary	FD Value	NoLapsValue	Odds to Win	Placement Points	Dominator Points
Kyle Larson	62.17	36.59	1	14,000	4.44	2.61	5.16	30.70	5.89
Ty Gibbs	53.82	28.52	2	9,500	5.67	3.00	14.82	26.37	2.15
Christopher Bell	52.18	26.93	3	11,000	4.74	2.45	19.72	25.53	1.40
Tyler Reddick	61.25	35.62	4	13,500	4.54	2.64	5.16	32.18	3.44
Chase Briscoe	42.11	17.31	5	6,800	6.19	2.55	137.29	17.02	0.29
William Byron	58.25	32.78	6	12,500	4.66	2.62	8.69	30.68	2.11
Ryan Blaney	54.49	29.16	7	12,000	4.54	2.43	16.43	27.97	1.19
Austin Cindric	35.24	10.61	8	4,800	7.34	2.21	340.55	10.56	0.05
Martin Truex Jr	56.29	30.93	9	11,500	4.90	2.69	12.46	29.62	1.30
Bubba Wallace	53.41	28.15	10	9,000	5.93	3.13	21.41	27.33	0.82
Denny Hamlin	58.17	32.76	11	13,000	4.47	2.52	10.93	31.28	1.48
Ross Chastain	52.09	26.91	12	10,000	5.21	2.69	31.94	26.36	0.55
Michael McDowell	36.91	12.24	13	5,500	6.71	2.22	340.55	12.20	0.04
Alex Bowman	49.44	24.40	14	8,000	6.18	3.05	60.79	24.08	0.32
Austin Dillon	37.87	13.23	15	5,200	7.28	2.54	340.55	13.20	0.03
Carson Hocevar	38.26	13.63	16	4,200	9.11	3.24	340.55	13.60	0.03
Daniel Suarez	45.64	20.84	17	7,200	6.34	2.89	160.86	20.71	0.14
Zane Smith	39.33	14.67	18	2,500	15.73	5.87	340.55	14.63	0.04
Chris Buescher	50.16	25.23	19	7,500	6.69	3.36	81.54	24.99	0.24
Joey Logano	53.82	28.73	20	8,500	6.33	3.38	46.94	28.33	0.41
Noah Gragson	41.25	16.46	21	6,500	6.35	2.53	209.78	16.41	0.05
Brad Keselowski	51.68	26.74	22	7,800	6.63	3.43	81.54	26.49	0.26
Corey LaJoie	37.29	12.80	23	3,500	10.66	3.66	628.68	12.78	0.02
Chase Elliott	55.77	30.69	24	10,500	5.31	2.92	46.94	30.30	0.39
Josh Berry	42.81	18.15	25	6,000	7.13	3.03	286.95	18.08	0.07
Ryan Preece	43.22	18.58	26	5,000	8.64	3.72	340.55	18.55	0.03
Erik Jones	50.57	25.78	27	7,000	7.22	3.68	160.86	25.62	0.17
Todd Gilliland	39.68	15.22	28	3,500	11.34	4.35	782.85	15.20	0.02
Harrison Burton	36.37	12.06	29	3,000	12.12	4.02	1,448.69	12.05	0.00
John H. Nemechek	45.27	20.62	30	6,200	7.30	3.33	340.55	20.59	0.03
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	41.20	16.66	31	4,000	10.30	4.17	628.68	16.65	0.01
Justin Haley	41.31	16.93	32	3,000	13.77	5.64	1,106.99	16.92	0.01
Kaz Grala	33.11	8.98	33	2,500	13.24	3.59	3,344.60	8.98	0.00
Austin Hill	47.28	22.58	34	5,800	8.15	3.89	340.55	22.54	0.04
Kyle Busch	62.84	37.68	35	8,200	7.66	4.59	35.60	37.19	0.49
Ty Dillon	43.42	19.06	36	2,000	21.71	9.53	1,106.99	19.04	0.01
Jimmie Johnson	44.04	19.58	37	4,500	9.79	4.35	782.85	19.57	0.01
Daniel Hemric	41.14	16.76	38	2,000	20.57	8.38	1,448.69	16.75	0.01

Detailed

Name	Avg finish	DKFinishPoints	FDFinishPoints	Place Differential	Fastest Laps	Laps Led
Name	Avg finish	DKFinishPoints	FDFinishPoints	Place Differential	Fastest Laps	Laps Led
Kyle Larson	7.6	36.4	34.0	-6.6	40.2	58.9
Ty Gibbs	10.6	33.0	30.7	-8.6	19.5	21.5
Christopher Bell	11.5	32.0	29.8	-8.5	15.2	14.0
Tyler Reddick	7.6	36.3	34.0	-3.6	28.0	34.4
Chase Briscoe	17.7	25.1	23.4	-12.7	4.7	2.9
William Byron	9.2	34.6	32.3	-3.2	19.3	21.1
Ryan Blaney	11.2	32.3	30.1	-4.2	12.8	11.9
Austin Cindric	23.0	19.3	18.0	-15.0	1.3	0.5
Martin Truex Jr	10.8	32.8	30.5	-1.8	12.9	13.0
Bubba Wallace	12.6	30.8	28.6	-2.6	9.4	8.2
Denny Hamlin	10.4	33.2	31.0	0.6	14.0	14.8
Ross Chastain	13.8	29.4	27.3	-1.8	7.2	5.5
Michael McDowell	23.5	18.7	17.5	-10.5	1.1	0.4
Alex Bowman	16.0	27.0	25.1	-2.0	5.0	3.2
Austin Dillon	23.5	18.7	17.5	-8.5	1.0	0.3
Carson Hocevar	23.6	18.6	17.4	-7.6	1.0	0.3
Daniel Suarez	19.2	23.4	21.8	-2.2	2.8	1.4
Zane Smith	23.6	18.6	17.4	-5.6	1.1	0.4
Chris Buescher	17.0	25.8	24.0	2.0	4.1	2.4
Joey Logano	15.2	27.9	25.9	4.8	5.9	4.1
Noah Gragson	23.4	18.8	17.6	-2.4	1.2	0.5
Brad Keselowski	17.0	25.8	24.0	5.0	4.2	2.6
Corey LaJoie	26.5	15.4	14.5	-3.5	0.6	0.2
Chase Elliott	15.2	27.9	25.9	8.8	5.7	3.9
Josh Berry	23.6	18.6	17.4	1.4	1.5	0.7
Ryan Preece	23.6	18.6	17.4	2.4	1.0	0.3
Erik Jones	19.3	23.4	21.8	7.7	3.0	1.7
Todd Gilliland	26.5	15.4	14.5	1.5	0.6	0.2
Harrison Burton	29.0	12.7	12.0	0.0	0.2	0.0
John H. Nemechek	23.6	18.6	17.4	6.4	1.0	0.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	26.6	15.3	14.4	4.4	0.5	0.1
Justin Haley	26.7	15.2	14.3	5.3	0.5	0.1
Kaz Grala	32.3	8.9	8.7	0.7	0.1	0.0
Austin Hill	23.6	18.6	17.4	10.4	1.1	0.4
Kyle Busch	14.3	28.9	26.8	20.7	6.8	4.9
Ty Dillon	26.6	15.3	14.4	9.4	0.5	0.1
Jimmie Johnson	26.6	15.3	14.4	10.4	0.4	0.1
Daniel Hemric	28.8	12.8	12.2	9.2	0.3	0.1

Author

Alex Baker

A self-proclaimed U.S. history buff, stats enthusiast, and rabid fan of anything Detroit (yes, even the Lions), Alex started playing daily fantasy sports in 2013 and never looked back. After graduating with a degree in mathematics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2008, he began developing advanced statistical models and applied his unique skill-set first to poker, then as a full-time DFS player. He has since dominated DFS, becoming a fixture on leaderboards and cementing his position as the top-ranked overall player according to RotoGrinders. Competing in most guaranteed prize pool tournaments, he has ranked in the top 3 across major sports, including NBA, NFL, NHL, PGA, and MLB. He enjoys sharing his knowledge of fantasy sports with new and experienced players alike. Career Highlights: No. 1 Overall Ranking; 14x FanDuel $100k winner, 11x DraftKings Hundred-Thousandaire; 20x Live Final qualifier. You can contact him on Twitter @awesemodfs or by emailing [email protected].