NASCAR DFS Preview, DraftKings & FanDuel Picks & Projections for GEICO 500 at Talladega

Following Alex Bowman‘s victory at Richmond, NASCAR heads down to the hallowed grounds of Talladega. Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR DFS picks, preview and analysis for the GEICO 500 and highlight the stats and trends you need to know for this Sunday when building your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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Richmond Wrap-Up

The words of advice going into Sunday were to play Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. Lineups needed to have at least one of them, if not both. The Joe Gibbs duo went on to lead more than 75% of the race and showed to be the class of the field. There are a few weeks before the 750-horsepower package returns at Dover. However, make a mental note now that Joe Gibbs drivers should be at the top of potential dominator lists.

The buried lede from Sunday was the late caution that made it possible for Alex Bowman to win. Without that caution, Bowman probably would have finished top five. That caution made it possible for the No. 48 team to start behind Hamlin and overtake him for the victory after clearing Joey Logano. Speaking of Logano, he was on his way to victory before that caution, showing that what happened at Phoenix wasn’t an anomaly. It would have been fitting for him to lose the Phoenix race in a long run but win the Richmond race on a similar long run.

Logano’s Penske teammates were disappointing, to say the least, especially Brad Keselowski. He made his way to the front and led a few laps. However, by the end of the race, he was two laps down and his setup was doing him no favors. Speaking of which, Ryan Blaney’s team copied Keselowski’s setup. What worked so well early when the clouds were still over the track ended up being their undoing once the sun came out and made the track slick.

Building NASCAR DFS Lineups for a Superspeedway

The return to Talladega means a superspeedway race and a change to the NASCAR DFS process. In this video with Alex Baker, we explain what you need to know for this Sunday.

What I did want to investigate are the numbers from the Race Sheets so we can validate our still-standing assumptions about building lineups for a superspeedway event.

GEICO 500 NASCAR DFS Preview

Fade the Pole Sitter

This is perhaps the easiest box to check based on the chaotic nature of this event. not to mention the history of the pole sitter in general. Rostering the pole sitter provide access to early laps led points, but that would mean taking a shot on a driver who could legitimately lose 39 positions should they wreck.

In the long term, since 2013 the pole sitter has an average finish of 14.875, just 17 laps led per race and three fastest laps. No matter the scoring system, losing 13 spots is going to wipe out any bonus from those minuscule dominator points. In the short term, since 2018 the pole sitter has an average finish of 11th with just 28.2 laps led and 5.3 fastest laps. Even then, that is just 33.54 DraftKings points.

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Don’t Focus on Dominator Points

This is perhaps the biggest mental hurdle for people to clear. Week in and week out it is about adjusting rosters based on the number of dominators needed for cash or tournaments. This week, due once again to the chaos, it doesn’t make sense to chase a dominator. There will be drivers who lead swaths of the race. However, making these drivers the focus of lineups is a fool’s errand.

First off, the fastest laps are unpredictable in an event like Talladega. With everyone tightly packed together, everyone will garner fastest laps. They will randomly happen and there is no way to predict who will have the fastest lap from lap to lap. The “Start/Finish Heat Map” tab shows every starting position over the past six races averages at least 1.8 fastest laps (39th) up to 5.7 fastest laps (27th).

Second, good luck guessing who will lead this race. Since 2013, everyone from the pole sitter to the driver starting 35th has led the most or second-most laps. The average starting position of the top-two lap leaders has been ninth. Since 2018, though, a top-two lap leader has not started outside of 12th, with four of them actually winning.

The approach to dominator points at Talladega and Daytona should be the “blind mouse” approach. That means hoping to blindly wonder into dominator points, and if it doesn’t happen, so be it. The concern in superspeedway races will always be finishing position points and place differential.

Stack in the Back

Top 12 average DraftKings scores over the past six Talladega races: 30th, 25th, 40th, 33rd, 20th, 15th, 34th, 29th, 37th, 9th, first and 36th.

Top 12 average FanDuel scores over the past six Talladega races: 30th, 33rd, 25th, 2oth, 40th, 15th, 34th, 37th, 29th, first and 21st.

All of the top DFS scores on average are coming from drivers starting back in the field. They are doing it via place differential and finishing position points. If a starting position in the single digits has a top-12 score, like first or ninth, it’s on the back of laps-led points. Those are the only two viable paths for building lineups. Drivers have to get there via a high finish and laps-led points or a high finish and place differential. Choosing option B is the safer and more consistent path to DFS success according to what average scores are showing across both sites.

Can We Play Cash?

For cash-game players, this sort of week might be scary. Chaos, chalk and everyone knowing what to do may lend one to think this is just a tournament weekend. For those reasons, the better play may be to avoid single- and multi-entry double-ups. One could have an amazing lineup but miss out on the cash line because of one driver. They could even hit the cash line and end up losing money because the lineup got duplicated hundreds or thousands of times and it wasn’t the optimal cash lineup.

Instead, play head-to-head games and make people prove that they know what they’re supposed to do. Living inside the insulated DFS bubble of reading articles, listening to podcasts and doing research via spreadsheets can convince someone that everyone else is doing the same. However, people doing those things on a consistent basis only make up a small percentage of the DFS infrastructure. Create or pick up some head-to-head games this Sunday.

Rule No. 1 for cash at Talladega is play no one starting further than 20th. If simply dividing the field, playing no one starting higher than 20th and making the six selections based on likelihood to finish the race in the top 15, the lineup will be good to go. Cash this week is all about maximizing place differential.

How to Get Different in Tournaments?

This is perhaps the biggest problem to solve when it feels like everyone is employing the same strategy. Here are some tips for differentiating:

Expand the player pool into the teens and single digits. Do not have more than one or two per lineup, but if people are strictly playing everyone 20th and beyond, then get some exposure to these drivers who could finish top five but have vastly lower ownership. This is the principle of getting greedy when others are scared.
Do not go crazy with punt plays. People are going to fall in love with punts this week. If this were Daytona, where things get even more hectic, then that could work. However, most Talladega races don’t see drivers in the punt play area move up that much. If they are not moving up, then their ceilings are capped. Have exposure but go under the field on nearly all of them.
Making full use of “uniques per lineup.” This is the sort of week to maximize as many uniques as palatable.
Take an ownership stand. Once ownership projections have been set, find a driver or two to take a stand on, either fading or embracing.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com