Following Ryan Blaney‘s victory in the 2022 NASCAR All-Star Race, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to familiar grounds in North Carolina for one of its “Crown Jewel” events. Let’s dive into the track information NASCAR DFS drivers need to know, what to expect for this weekend’s running of the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway and some early NASCAR fantasy picks.
NASCAR Charlotte DFS Preview: 2022 Coca-Cola 600
Charlotte Motor Speedway Information
- Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway
- Location: Concord, N.C.
- Length: 1.5-mile oval (asphalt)
- Banking: 24 degrees in the turns
- Dominator Points:
- DraftKings: 100 – laps led, 180 – fastest laps
- FanDuel: 40 – laps led
- Past winners: Kyle Larson (2021), Brad Keselowski (2020)
- Betting favorite: Kyle Larson +500
- Coca-Cola 600 Entry List: 37 drivers including Ryan Preece (15), Noah Gragson (16), Kaz Grala (50), and Josh Bilicki (77)
- Weather: High of 84, mostly sunny
- Watch: FOX
- Listen: PRN (PRN, NASCAR.com, NASCAR Sirius/XM Channel 90)
On Track Schedule (All Times Eastern)
- Saturday, May 28
- 7 p.m.: practice
- 7:35 p.m.: qualifying
- Sunday, May 29
- 6 p.m.: green flag (400 laps)
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2022 Coca-Cola 600 DFS Picks
Following the embarrassment that was the 2022 All-Star Race, NASCAR heads back to “home base” for the majority of its teams — the greater Charlotte area. Sunday night’s festivities will be held under the lights of Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Coca-Cola 600.
Sunday’s race will be the longest race of the season, in terms of length run — 600 miles. The Coca-Cola 600 has always been a test of endurance, not only for the drivers but for their equipment, testing engines, brakes and just about everything else under the hood that is attached with a nut and bolt. However, with the flood of tire issues that NASCAR and Goodyear have been enduring over the past two weeks at Texas and Kansas, Monday morning’s headlines could be about who ended up on the right side of the draw in terms of tire luck over the 400 laps. While it’s impossible to project such outcomes on Wednesday before a race, don’t be shocked if the Coca-Cola 600 approaches Bristol Dirt in terms of cautions and laps run under the yellow flag. A word of warning to those who have been tilting at uncontrollable outcomes the past few weeks.
Looking back at the past few Memorial Day weekend races at Charlotte, patterns with laps led almost seem cyclical. A driver will start on the pole, have a huge advantage with a fast car and clean air, and hold a firm lead the entire night before winning (Kyle Larson, 2021; Kyle Busch, 2018; Martin Truex Jr., 2015). In each of those three instances, the three pole-sitters led over 75% of the race with an average running position of first. However, littered amongst these dominating performances are pole-sitters like Kurt Busch in 2020, who led 54 laps before finishing eighth, or William Byron in 2019, who led just 31 laps before ending his evening in ninth. Dating back to 2013, when the pole-sitter doesn’t have the car to beat, they only lead 32 laps per race, on average.
Finding Correlation for Charlotte
With this in mind, what should NASCAR fans and DFS players expectations for Sunday evening be? The easy train to jump on is linking Texas with Charlotte (recency bias) and the idea that clean air is king and whoever takes control of the pack into turn one can just squat on the lead like Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney did this past Sunday. However, Texas was recently repaved in 2017 and is a single-groove behemoth that has removed all racing from the track. Charlotte, on the flip side, last saw new pavement in 2006 giving it an older surface than Kansas (2011) and the same as Las Vegas.
We have seen top DFS lap leading performances from drivers starting on the pole, however, they're happening at shorter/flatter venues (Phoenix – 143, Richmond – 128, Martinsville – 185) or an anomalous track like Darlington (107).
— Phill Bennetzen | RaceSheetsDFS Substack (@PMBennetzen) May 25, 2022
Thus, Las Vegas should be a good plumbline for Charlotte with the Generation Seven car, track dimensions, and age of surface considered. In lieu of this, there shouldn’t be one dominating driver up front all night, in fact, Sunday evening’s race could very well see three dominators become optimal. The 400 laps present ample opportunities for multiple drivers to take the lead and it seems even more likely with an extra stage break as the laps get split up in quarters. Furthermore, six of the past eight races at Charlotte (the 1.5-mile oval and not the roval) have seen at least three drivers lead 10% or more of the event.
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