Following Ryan Blaney‘s third victory of the 2021 season, NASCAR makes its return visit to Darlington to kick off the playoffs. Let’s recap the exhilarating action from Daytona, how the playoff field stands and what to expect for our NASCAR DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday afternoon’s Cook Out Southern 500. Be sure to check out the Awesemo expert NASCAR DFS projections and tools throughout the week for up-to-date information.
NASCAR DFS Strategy: Cook Out Southern 500
The Big One Seals It
On the final restart, with three laps to go, Ryan Blaney (+1200) started alongside Corey LaJoie (+8000). Thanks to a massive push, one that might have been too good but in the end helped keep him away from the impending doom, Blaney was able to dictate the rules upfront and block effectively keeping both lanes behind him. On the final lap, a wreck perhaps triggered by Kurt Busch getting into Daniel Suarez, the “big one” occurred entangling over half of the remaining field. Playoff hopefuls like LaJoie, Suarez, Austin Dillon, and Matt DiBenedetto saw their chances slip away as they got caught in the carnage. Meanwhile, others like Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace saw an opportunity that was for not as the yellow flag waved.
Had the wreck not occurred, it would have been very interesting to see if LaJoie, Suarez, or DiBenedetto could have made a move to overtake Blaney. That said, Blaney has blossomed into a skilled superspeedway driver with an incredible knack for blocking. The sort of blocking that does not get drivers turned into the wall or hated by their fellow drivers.
Regardless, with this final restart shootout, NASCAR got exactly what it wanted. Their desire was for intrigue to be full to the top as several drivers had the opportunity to win and seal their chance into the playoffs. No other track offers this scenario, especially when done in primetime under the lights. NASCAR has been rightly criticized for a myriad of bad decisions this year. Moving the season-finale to Daytona is not one of them though.
2021 Playoff Field
Blaney’s victory resulted in two interesting fallouts, as per the playoffs. First, it boosted his own standing as shown below. Second, it sealed Tyler Reddick‘s place into the final playoff spot. Here is the playoff field, via NASCAR.COM, as they currently stand:
Via five victories and an incredible 12 stage wins, Kyle Larson starts the playoffs off with a 28-point lead over second place. It is doubtful but missed opportunities at Atlanta, Kansas, and Pocono “might” haunt Larson down the road. As for now, it is smooth sailing for the No. 5 team. With back-to-back wins, Blaney vaulted himself up in the playoff picture and now sits tied with Martin Truex Jr. for second place. Afternoon into evening races has traditionally been Blaney’s Achilles heel. Yet, in this year’s previous Darlington and Richmond races, he finished 11th or better in both.
Going down the board, the first winless driver of 2021 shows up with Denny Hamlin sitting in seventh. With 15 playoff points accrued during the season, Hamlin finds himself in a somewhat safe spot after pointing his way into the playoffs. However, now, the need to do more than just finish well sits on the No. 11 squad’s shoulders. In positions, eight through 14th sit the drivers who all made their way in via their singular wins. Several of these drivers would have been very questionable to make their way into this field, if not for those victories.
Rounding out the final two spots are Reddick and surprise under-achiever, for 2021, Kevin Harvick. Perhaps, inspection changes, have meant that much to Harvick and Childers ability to compete compared to last season. However, at some point, these two should have been able to adjust. It is especially alarming when NASCAR fans and DFS players alike realize he gained a total of two playoff points through 26 races with zero stage wins. While this is sobering for Harvick’s chances to advance into round two, it is worth noting just six points separate Harvick from Brad Keselowski in 10th. This picture could evolve quite a bit following Darlington.
A Return to the Lady in Black
As previously stated, the first race in the first round of the playoffs kicks off Sunday afternoon at Darlington. This will mark just the second time this season, NASCAR has made a return visit to a track that was not part of a double-header. The other track being Atlanta. The first Darlington race went down on Mother’s Day weekend, a 400-mile snoozer that saw Truex win his third race of 2021.
That May event saw NASCAR change up Darlington by using the high-horsepower/ low-downforce package as opposed to the 550-horsepower package it has used there the past few years. As per the drivers, they seemed to embrace more horsepower and less downforce at a track already nicknamed “too tough to tame”. The change in racing packages took a track that can become slick as the surface chews through tires and made it even harder to handle thanks to the 200-horsepower bump.
Initially, the changes created a very racy start as the lead changed hands seven times through the first 27 laps. However, for several 30-lap or longer stretches, Truex would prove to be the better driver in the better car. After he would yield the lead, several drivers would exchange the lead once more. By lap 188, at the end of the second segment, the lead had changed 18 times. Yet it was Truex on top of the leaderboard at this stage break, just like at the end of the first segment. Following the caution on lap 188, Truex would go on to lead the final 105 laps en route to victory. With no yellow flags in the final segment, Truex was able to put all but nine cars a lap down. Even though the lead changed hands 19 times, Truex still accounted for 248 of 293 laps led or nearly 85%.
NASCAR DFS Lessons for Sunday
When one driver hogs this many laps, it creates an optimal lineup built around one dominator. For those who built a two-dominator lineup, they were still rewarded as Kyle Larson joined the optimal on both DraftKings and FanDuel, despite no laps led and just 11 fastest laps. With 367 laps on tap for Sunday, DFS players should return to a similar build, on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This covers the gamut of another single driver leading nearly the whole race, as what happened in May and then happened again at the somewhat similar Nashville Speedway in June. Not to mention, if this race and its surface evolves thanks to starting in the afternoon and finishing at night, then the race could easily see different drivers excelling under the different conditions.
Picking place differential drivers will be key and with the grid getting set by Daytona’s results, there will be quite a few options – all dependent on how aggressive the sites get with pricing. Yet, the key in tournaments is going to be in finding the cheapest source of a high finish. In the Spring that was Chris Buescher at $6,500 who scored 39.95 DraftKings points. Starting 11th, Buescher was a fade for most DFS players. However, he managed to hang on to the lead lap all day. In the end, he finished in ninth place and became a cheaper source of points via his finishing position points. While most people were making cases for the cheaper, typical punt plays; Buescher gave actual upside thanks to where he finished.
With nearly a hundred more laps, perhaps this scenario changes for a driver like Buescher. The one thing that will not, though, is what happens for drivers like Quinn Houff or Cody Ware. Save for attrition, they are more likely to lose even more laps and get mired in the rear of the field. The only races where these drivers approach viability is races that end with several cautions, like Martinsville. That should not be the case on Sunday evening.
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