NASCAR DFS Picks, Projections & Preview for Toyota Owners 400 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Following Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at Martinsville, NASCAR makes the quick jog to Richmond. There will be 400 laps this Sunday at Richmond in the Toyota Owners 400. Let’s dive into this week’s NASCAR DFS picks and preview as we highlight everything you need to know for DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NASCAR DFS: Toyota Owners 400 DraftKings & FanDuel

Hamlin’s Dominance at Martinsville

It may have taken 450 laps, but Truex finally found his way to the lead. Even then, following the final round of pit stops, he still couldn’t hold off teammate Denny Hamlin. However, after the initial short-run, Truex reeled in Hamlin before finally passing him late and sealing his second win of the 2021 season.

The short-run was Hamlin’s key to success. Whereas some teams guessed that the race would be under the lights on Saturday, others planned on a Sunday affair with the rain-imminent forecast. Day or night, the No. 11 team planned on lots of short runs regardless of the conditions. This setup played well into Hamlin’s hands as he took the lead after just three laps from Joey Logano. After any restart, Hamlin was a rocket on wheels becoming impossible to pass following the green flag.

However, Hamlin did have kryptonite and it came in the form of long runs. He was passed in both long runs in stages one and two by Ryan Blaney. Once the track cooled down and the corners found grip with 400-plus laps of rubber getting laid down, Hamlin got pulled in by Truex. Had there been another late caution, Hamlin finding victory circle for the first time this season would have been the obvious bet. Instead, it was only Hamlin’s seventh top-five finish through eight races.

It doesn’t seem to matter the track type or horsepower package; the No. 11 is going to be a factor week in and week out and could easily have the regular-season championship wrapped up by July.

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Martinsville = Richmond?

So, should one expect to see teams plan similarly for Richmond as they did at Martinsville? Probably not and here’s why. Even though both Martinsville and Richmond fall under the moniker of “short tracks” and use the same 750-horsepower package – there are noticeable differences.

For one, Richmond is a quarter-mile longer — not as big as New Hampshire or Phoenix but not nearly as short as Bristol or Martinsville. One might scoff at this extra quarter-mile amounting to anything. However, this extra length combined with Richmond’s D-shape actually increases speed quite a bit. Whereas the key to Martinsville is how early or late someone gets on the brakes and then back into the gas, Richmond will focus a bit more on the full use of that 750-horsepower engine.

Not to mention, that extra space decreases congestion in the corners and allows for passing outside of bumping someone out of the way. In this 2011 interview with Motorsport.com, Tony Stewart goes a little further into the uniqueness of Richmond and why to him, “It’s the perfect-sized track for a Cup race.” Someone might enjoy the beating and banging form Sunday and the calamity that ensues. However, at races like Richmond, drivers not only race each other but the track as well.

2020 Richmond

Due to COVID-related issues, the 2020 NASCAR schedule ended up with just one Richmond race last season. It was a Saturday night affair, like the past five Richmond races so as to not compete with the start of the NFL season that following Sunday. Furthermore, it was the second race of the first round of the playoffs following the third race of 2020 at Darlington. Thus the race had priority for more than a third of the field, however, there was no prior race in the season to look back on for notes. What a team dialed in at the shop was what they would be working with for 400 laps that evening.

Two storylines emerged that evening: The lack of cautions and Penske’s dominance in the 750-horsepower package. Penske will be covered in depth later in the week. If looking for one more thing to distinguish Richmond versus Martinsville, it’s the lack of cautions. In that 2020 Richmond race, there were three cautions thrown all evening. Yet all three were planned. The first caution came out at lap 30 as a competition caution to allow teams to inspect tires. The following two cautions were thrown for stage breaks.

This shouldn’t be that surprising as Richmond has seen a lack of yellow flags over the years. Including stage breaks, Richmond has seen only one race with double-digit cautions since the fall race of 2013. Since 2018, that number hasn’t gone over six. When pairing 400 laps with a lack of cautions, there are long green flag runs. Long green flag runs result in cars getting lapped, sometimes multiple times. In last year’s Richmond race, only 11 drivers finished on the lead lap.

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Building Optimally for Richmond

One of the keys to tournaments this weekend in NASCAR DFS is going to be nailing which drivers can hold their position or advance slightly and stay on the lead lap. Once a driver drops a lap they’ll have to fight like hell to be the first driver a lap down or else they’ll be hoping for a caution that might not happen. Tyler Reddick was that driver last year with an average running position of 16.2 but finished the night in 11th. With 45.8 fantasy points on DraftKings and 75.5 on FanDuel, Reddick found his way into both optimal lineups.

Without an official starting grid as of yet, there is not a prospective list of who tournament candidates will be. Beyond drivers who find themselves being optimal via finishing position points, the main focus begins and ends with dominators in a 400 lap race.

The pillar of both optimal lineups was Brad Keselowski after he led 192 laps, had 44 fastest laps, and also picked up eight positions. The second common factor of both optimals ended up being surprise mini-dominator Austin Dillon who led the second-most laps that night with 55. That number is what should be noted. The “Laps Led Data” page in the Race Sheets shows 55 laps led for the driver with the second most laps led are the smallest number in Generation-Six era racing at Richmond. Most generally, the second dominator leads in the neighborhood of 100 laps.

This is where the lineups diverge. The third driver in the optimal DraftKings lineup is another dominator with Logano and his 45 laps led and 27 fastest laps. However, Truex becomes the third optimal driver on FanDuel with no laps led but six place differential points and second-place finish.

Final Early Toyota Owners 400 DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Thoughts

Assuming there is not another race with five drivers who lead 10% or more of the race, this should be a two-dominator build across both sites. However, the unknown factor is what this race looks like under the sun as opposed to the lights. This will be the first day race at Richmond since the Spring event of 2018. In that race, the top dominator only led 121 laps, the smallest number by any dominator at Richmond in the Generation-Six era. In fact, that day there were three drivers that led over 90 laps. While one can’t project a similar scenario for Sunday, just know that type of race might be on the table.

One thing for sure, whether looking at two or three dominator builds, lap leaders have to come from upfront. In the 15 Richmond races since 2013, only twice has the driver with the most or second-most laps led come from the 12th or worse starting position. In the short term, since 2018 the top-11 starting positions are accounting for 377 of the 400 laps led. Moving up the starting grid, the top-four starters are accounting for just over half (207.4) of the laps led per race in that same time frame. The closer to the front the more likely a driver is to lead.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com