NASCAR DFS Picks: Goodyear 400 DraftKings DFS MUSTS at Darlington

The field is set for Sunday’s race at Darlington with Joey Logano and Kyle Larson on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Goodyear 400.

DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Best Goodyear 400 Values

Joey Logano, 1st ($9,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Logano took, perhaps, the fastest car in practice and backed it up in qualifying by starting his No. 22 car on the pole for Sunday’s race. Logano will have a tough task with Kyle Larson starting beside him on the front row, however, it looks like Logano has the short-run speed to keep Larson and the rest of the Toyotas at bay – using his speed to build a cushion. The only worry with utilizing Logano in single-dominator builds is that Logano’s long-run speed appears to fall off precipitously for his 10-lap average compared to his 15-lap average.

Furthermore, if NASCAR has a competition caution to gauge tire wear, that presents another opportunity for Logano to lose the lead. That said, Logano is $1,800 cheaper than Larson on DraftKings and $4,000 cheaper on FanDuel. Those savings may be well worth pivoting to Logano for cash games instead of Larson, who has shown plenty of speed in 2022 but continually disappoints on the track in terms of his laps-led numbers.

Kyle Larson, 2nd ($11,000 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

For those not afraid to return to the well of diminishing returns, Darlington is a track that Larson has continually run well at and appears to have a fairly fast car in the short term that gets faster the longer into a run it gets. In that scenario, it may not take 20 laps before Larson catches up to Logano and passes him high. Also, with Larson, NASCAR DFS players get the added benefit of him running near the wall collecting a large amount of fastest laps. The one downside with Larson is that he continually shows an unwillingness to save his tires, not to the point of blowing them and wrecking, but as in losing a lead late because he overspent them early in a run to establish a lead. Bettors should keep this in mind, but if Larson does what he did last fall, then it won’t matter if he finished second again for DFS.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 26th ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

If Dover was a sign of the No. 47 team righting a ship that was stuck in a sand barge for most of 2022, then it’s time to jump back on one of the scariest rides in Fantasy NASCAR. Stenhouse qualified in the teens last weekend and drove his car, without any real hijinks on his part, to a strong second-place finish. Fast forward to Saturday at Darlington, Stenhouse posts top-11 speed in the single lap, five-lap, and 10-lap intervals but a disappointing qualifying number. This, in turn, creates a plentiful opportunity for place differential for a driver who has finished 20th or better in his past three starts at Darlington. For those still scarred by Stenhouse, pivoting to Cole Custer might be the safer option, but Stenhouse might have a higher ceiling based on practice numbers and performance last weekend at Darlington’s closest corollary.

Corey Lajoie, 30th ($4,900 DraftKings)

Ty Dillon went and overqualified (21st), at least for cash game purposes, so this week’s punt option for head-to-head games and double-ups is the driver of the Marty Robbins’ throwback — Corey Lajoie.

Lajoie wasn’t necessarily fast in practice but the kicker is that he definitely wasn’t the slowest, posting better practice speeds than the typical punt options and rookie Todd Gilliland who looked like a driver trying to get his sea legs underneath him. Yes, Gilliland has seen this track in the Trucks Series but when it comes to picking a cheap option who won’t just torpedo a lineup, side with the driver who has Cup experience and knows how to navigate this track with its tire wear as opposed to the more expensive option who’ll be learning on the fly. Lajoie’s FanDuel salary is not listed, and hopefully DFS players can avoid that range altogether.

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Chase Elliott, 34th ($10,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

If only it was a cut tire…

During his practice run, Elliott wrecked after his right rear went flat and he careened into the wall. Now, in a new vehicle, Elliott will start dead last and join Harvick as two of the highest-owned pieces of roster construction. Concerning a backup vehicle, there are virtually no issues, as backup cars have shown to be just as competitive as the primary cars brought to the track.

Although Elliott comes into Sunday with the second-highest salary on DraftKings and third-highest on FanDuel, Elliott holds the slate’s highest ceiling due to his place differential potential as well as dominator point upside. Over his past six races at Darlington, Elliott is averaging 15.2 fastest laps and 25.2 laps led per event — both marks he can easily meet and surpass on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick, 35th ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

After cutting a tire down during practice, enough damage happened to the diffuser of the No. 4 that the decision was made to replace the part, which meant they couldn’t post a qualifying lap. This creates the easiest selection of the entire slate as Harvick is a lock for cash and a hard-fade candidate in tournaments. Harvick, a perennial top-10 finisher at Darlington and a two-time winner since 2019, is priced at or under $9,000 on both sites allowing him to fit easily into any type of roster construction.

Harvick was one of the drivers popping up as a popular option in the Goodyear 400 NASCAR betting picks article. Check out how to bet Harvick, as well as all of our other NASCAR predictions this week by clicking on the link.

Darlington is consistently a track where speed and positions can be gained through tire management, one of Harvick’s stronger assets. Expect a competition caution tomorrow to check on tires, despite the tire test run earlier this year, which will help catapult Harvick further along.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com