Pocono 350 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft

Following Kevin Harvick‘s victory on Saturday, we plan ahead for the Pocono 350 on Sunday. An inverted field flips our NASCAR DFS process on its head, so let’s dive into how differently lineups should look Saturday versus Sunday.

Pricing Before Inversion

Both DraftKings and FanDuel attempted to adjust salaries according to the way they thought the Saturday race would unfold. However, guessing is an inexact science and we have some mismatched drivers. To begin with, good luck guessing who would finish 20th on Saturday and start on the pole Sunday. If you had Ryan Preece doing so, go buy a lottery ticket on Monday. Furthermore, neither site could have guessed that Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones would tangle up with one another and start in the 30s.

Needless to say, we anticipated what lineup construction would look like. For the most part, it’s remained static as the sites prematurely adjusted salaries. However, discrepancies do exist. So let’s start off with what ideal lineup construction does look like. Then we’ll find jumping-off points thanks to these miscalculations.

As far as SuperDraft is concerned, they didn’t bother trying to guess what the finishing order for the Pocono Organics 325 would be. However, because of what I believe proper lineup construction to be, things are static. In fact, you’ll see a lot of bleed over from driver selections from DraftKings to FanDuel to SuperDraft due to the lack of laps.

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Do I Even Need a Dominator?

This was a legitimate question Saturday but, in the end, you needed one dominator. However, now we can make a real argument for fading a potential lap leader from upfront. Think back to the second Darlington race a few Wednesday evenings ago. We had this similar scenario with several top-tier drivers starting in the teens or worse. They all possessed place differential upside with the added bonus of potentially leading laps. Now that scenario exists again but we have even fewer laps to worry about.

The majority of points scored Sunday will come via two sources: place differential and finishing position. Yes, someone(s) is going to rack up the fastest laps and laps led points. However, chances are the drivers that do so are going to necessarily fade through the race while these drivers starting in the teens march forward. Therefore, the few bonus points that those drivers accumulate will be nullified by their negative place differential.

That being said, in the tournament portion of the article, I will list some potential lap leader options. Most players are going to focus solely on place differential and disregard lap leaders. Pivoting from the chalky place differential guys to a lesser-owned dominator makes total sense.

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NASCAR DFS Cash Place Differential/ Finishing Position Options

Joey Logano, 36th ($12,000 FanDuel, $9,400 DraftKings, 1.05X SuperDraft) – Logano is the top play on each site and it goes without much analysis. He offers the highest fantasy point ceiling and floor of any driver on Sunday’s slate. If Logano finishes 20th to 10th then he was a solid contributor for your NASCAR DFS lineup. If he finishes around 5th, a feat he’s done before at Pocono, then we’re talking about the top fantasy score on the day.

Erik Jones, 38th ($10,000 FanDuel, $7,400 DraftKings, 1.45 X SuperDraft) – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Well, to be fair, we might be on the 7th or 8th time that Jones has pulled the wool over our eyes. I did warn you that Jones has been erratic with his finishes this season and bam, it happened again Saturday. Although we can blame Jones’s finish on someone else and not Jones. Regardless, the risk has been “nearly” removed from Jones with his salary and starting position.

Just like Saturday, fading Jones is the optimal play to get away from the chalk. However, Jones has a huge floor and a gigantic ceiling. We know Jones is fully capable of finishing in the top-5. If you don’t play Jones in cash on any of the three sites, you’re taking a major risk.

If you reference the Race Sheets, you’ll see exactly how I feel about all the drivers 15th and back. However, if you would like a pure rankings based approach to these drivers when you consider salary/ place differential/ likelihood to lead, this is how I fall.

Chase Elliott – 25th
Kevin Harvick – 20th (hard not to like the driver who races the same track in the same vehicle he just won in)
Martin Truex Junior – 15th
Denny Hamlin – 19th (Hamlin ended the race with an unknown vibration, so keep an eye on his status)

NASCAR DFS Tournament Place Differential/ Finishing Position Options

Before we delve too deep, let’s discuss what the obvious chalk builds will be for each site. Looking purely at place differential and names, the majority of players will start lineups with the aforementioned Logano and Jones while adding Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott to the fold. Doing so will give DraftKings players $15,200 leftover for the final two spots. This same build will leave $7,400 leftover on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, this means you don’t get to add another top-tier driver unless you pivot off of Jones or Reddick. On FanDuel, you have a plethora of drivers at or under $7,400. Just know, if you keep those previous 4 and then add in whoever, you’ll probably enter a several hundred-time duplicated lineup. Therefore, let’s find those valuable pivots off the chalk.

Ryan Blaney, 9th ($11,800 FanDuel, $10,000 DraftKings, 1.1X SuperDraft) – In the great debate of Ryan Blaney versus Aric Almirola, it was Almirola running away. Perhaps, I was a day too early on Blaney. Regardless, Blaney could never make a real move for the lead and eventually fell back after the final round of off-sequence pit stops.

Now, out of all the potential lap leaders, he starts the furthest forward. Outside of some shenanigans, we can’t really expect him to be a threat to lead until the second segment. However, if he takes the lead and gets clean air, he could ride circles around this track. In this same line of thought, add Brad Keselowski to your tournament pool as a potential lap leader.

Kyle Busch, 16th ($13,500 FanDuel, $11,000 DraftKings, 1.25X SuperDraft) – When will Busch put it all together? At this rate, not until NASCAR has practice again. Busch is too expensive on any site to be utilized in cash. If you think that the short turnaround plays like practice to the #18 team, then this might be the day to jump on Rowdy after his salary jumped up again.

Michael McDowell, 13th ($5,000 FanDuel, $5,500 DraftKings, 1.6X SuperDraft) – Passing is indeed tough at Pocono but McDowell made it look easy picking up nearly 20 positions yesterday. Starting 13th, McDowell’s ownership should be microscopic but there is merit to choosing him as your punt play. First off, yesterday’s car looked great, especially for something coming out out of Front Row Motorsports. Talent isn’t an issue either. Most forget this but McDowell came up in the Joe Gibbs Racing program.

While McDowell, realistically, only has a few positions to gain, it’s the fact that he could still lose place differential and still outscore everyone else in his price range.