NASCAR DFS Picks: Pocono Raceway Preview for DraftKings, FanDuel

Following Ryan Blaney‘s victory at Talladega, NASCAR heads North to Pennsylvania. More specifically, they head to Long Pond, Pa. and the “Tricky Triangle” for back-to-back races. Therefore, let’s preview Saturday and Sunday’s races at Pocono for NASCAR DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft.

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A Gimmicky Track Producing Subpar Racing

The best, and most concise, way to describe racing at Pocono is … boring.

If you had never watched a single NASCAR Cup Series race and wanted to know whether a track would be enjoyable to watch, we have a few factors to consider. Does the track lack banking — corners or straightaways? Also, is the track extra wide? Finally, is the track longer than a mile in length? If the answer to all three is yes, then you might have a boring race.

Unfortunately, Pocono fits all three criteria. Indianapolis, the site of next weekend’s race, fits that description too. It’s uncanny that NASCAR scheduled two of its worst tracks for racing back-to-back weekends. Or in our 2020 case, we get three of these races in an eight-day period.

Now, on the surface, Pocono looks like a track that should be somewhat fun. First, it has an odd shape with its triangular formation which resembles nothing else in the Series. Second, it’s three corners are all from fellow tracks with not one mirroring another corner at the track. However, the first problem that shows its head is the length of Pocono — 2 1/2 miles. A gimmicky shape and unique corners are great but when you make the straightaways so long, the gimmick takes a step back to sheer horsepower.

Furthermore, this triangle is relatively flat. There is some banking in the corners, 14 degrees at most, but the majority of this track is flat. This places the focus on horsepower even more as these long straightaways become a matchup of who’s faster. Here’s the Race Rewind from last July’s Pocono race to give you an idea of what to expect, or what you might “miss” should you go mow the yard, like I will.

Boring Racing and its NASCAR DFS Implications

These factors all culminate in a race with minimal passing practically anywhere. Where a driver starts is a good predictor of where they will finish. If a driver picks up spots, it typically happens on pit road. Over the past six Pocono races, only one starting position outside of the top 20 has an average finish better than 20th (23rd – 14.3). Meanwhile, sorted by average finish, your top average starting positions are first, second, fourth, sixth, fifth, ninth, 13rd, third, 17th and third.

In the past, before stage-breaks, drivers could attempt to race Pocono backward like a road course. We even saw Pocono become fuel-mileage races plenty of times. However, with guaranteed cautions and their subsequent pit-stops, Pocono has been robbed of any possible strategy, so the issue of drivers not really moving forward or back much gets compounded. Everyone gets to come in after the second stage-break, get tires and gas, and know they can make it the rest of the way on one more stop. It comes down to who can beat who off pit road and perhaps gain a few spots on the restart before everyone gets too fanned out.

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Thank God for Short Races

In the past, these races have been 160 laps (400 miles). However, with the back-to-back nature of this weekend, we will see shorter races. Saturday’s race will only be 130 laps in length while Sunday’s will just be 140 laps. This reduction in laps means more than just shorter television subjugation. It also means we need to go back to our NASCAR DFS sliding scale for roster construction purposes.

First, let’s address Saturday’s race. A hundred thirty laps means far fewer “dominator” points than we’re accustomed to seeing. On DraftKings, only 65 fastest laps points will on the board and just 32.5 laps led points. Meanwhile, on FanDuel, a measly 13 laps led points will be for the taking and on SuperDraft, that number jumps to just 26. You’re still going to build single-dominator-centric lineups on DraftKings. Meanwhile, on FanDuel, your focus will be on finishing position. Furthermore, with just 26 laps led points on the board, it’s going to be extremely tough for drivers who start upfront with small multipliers to be worth rostering.

On Sunday, these “dominator” numbers will jump incrementally as we go from 130 to 140 laps. However, don’t forget that the field for Sunday will be set via inversion. Thus we’re going to have a slew of drivers starting 13th through 20th on Sunday with 10 place differential spots who could also be fighting for the race win come segment 3.

This is all to say, the way you build lineups on Saturday for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft will evolve into Sunday. On both days I will release my driver breakdown articles highlighting my top plays. In these articles, I will address what changes your lineups should be going through based on the starting grid. The main takeaway I want you to have is not to assume what worked on Saturday will remain static on Sunday. Yes, the number of laps is similar. Yet the field inversion is going change things up enough because we’re dealing with so few laps.