Hey everybody, we have a NASCAR DFS slate!
I’ll be honest, I thought we wouldn’t see another NASCAR DFS slate until Memorial Day weekend at the earliest. Currently, according to the writers at The Athletic, the tentative plan is to start racing again at Charlotte. With that comes 15races in July and August to keep the full Cup schedule. Thus, when I saw that I just wrote off NASCAR DFS for a month and a half.
Then the news broke Friday and DraftKings provided us a slate for Sunday’s IRace at Bristol. I had been clamoring for either DraftKings or FanDuel to just throw us a freeroll for these virtual races. However, DraftKings did more and we have a real live slate.
IRacing
If you’ve yet to watch IRacing because you’re one of the few remaining “purists,” lean in. No, this isn’t actual stock cars racing one another, but until our country’s leaders get a handle on this pandemic, this is the closest thing you’ll see. IRacing is way more than just you simulating a race on NASCAR Heat by giving control of the game to the computer. This is the actual drivers themselves racing one another with steering wheels, clutches, pedals, etc.
How a real-life athlete plays a game like Madden or NBA 2K comes with no bearing from their actual skill. Meanwhile, the driver’s skill behind the real wheel correlates strongly to how they do in an IRace and vice versa. IRacing has become the preferred method for drivers from all series to perfect their craft. In no way is playing NBA 2K going to help Russell Westbrook improve his 3-point shot.
Regardless, the television product has been pretty good. Racing has gotten better and more competitive. Both nationally televised races have provided exciting finishes. Also, FOX has done a great job making the virtual racing watchable. If you want an idea of what to expect, here’s the ENASCAR event from Bristol earlier this week.
DFS Implications
NASCAR DFS scoring remains static on DraftKings for Sunday’s event. However, we do have a meteor falling out of the sky at the speed of light towards us.
The slate is going to lock before we know the running order.Â
Let me rephrase that. You will be forced to build lineups without knowing where any driver starts.
Here’s the conundrum that DraftKings was presented by the IRacing schedule. FOX is going to begin its broadcast at 1 PM EST with two heat races. These races will establish the starting grid for the 30 drivers in the main 150-lap race. However, with cautions and commercial breaks, we don’t have a clear transition period between the end of the second heat race and the start of the main feature.
So instead of forcing you to look at the grid with maybe five minutes left and construct lineups, DraftKings has resorted to this. If you don’t like that think of it this way: the heat races could go longer than expected, the slate locks with us still not knowing the starting order and we’re still in the same boat. However, this time you have far less time to build lineups. This way everyone has now through Sunday at 1 p.m. EST to make lineups instead of waiting to see if the second heat race ends in time to build off the true starting order.
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Building Off What We Know
At this point, you may be totally turned off from playing. Believe me, I understand. The starting grid is the point at which we begin our weekly analysis. So now we need a new starting point.
Thus, throw out worrying about place differential. You can try to guess where a driver might start. However, in the end, that’s all it is — dart throw in a dark room. That’s the biggest shame too. With only 150 laps on tap, place differential will be a big factor in fantasy scoring as “dominator” points will be on the shallow end.
As such, I propose our new starting point is prospective leaders. We try to anticipate who is going to qualify towards the front and thus have the best chance at leading the race. Besides obviously earning those .25 bonus points for laps led, race leaders at Bristol are typically picking up fastest laps as well. In last Fall’s Bristol race, the fastest laps were all concentrated around the drivers who led the race. I believe we anticipate a similar scenario for Sunday in regards to NASCAR DFS scoring.
Second, we need to worry about finishing position. Not everyone can lead and even then there are only 150 laps. Thus, the more consistent fantasy points will come from where the driver’s finish.
Top Plays for Bristol
With this being the inaugural offering for IRacing, not to mention the mitigating circumstances following lock, picks are going to look different from the typical weekly article. Instead of listing drivers under usual sub-headings, I’m going to just explain why I like them in terms of NASCAR DFS.
Timmy Hill $10700 (+500)
No, this is not a typo. Hill is the most expensive driver in the field. Last week’s winner at Texas comes in as a top-two Vegas favorite (+500) via Bet Online. IRacing career-wise, Hill has a 40% winning mark in 1,673 starts (673 wins) with 456 poles. In the two televised IRacing events, Hill has finished third and first with 22 laps led combined. Furthermore, those finishes have come with an average start of ninth.
However, it’s his history in IRacing that has me most intrigued. Bristol is going to be a completely different race compared to the intermediate ovals we’ve seen at Texas and Miami. Having experience is going to matter a ton and Hill’s 108,974 totals laps run tell me he’ll be able to navigate this virtual bullring better than most.
William Byron $10500 (+300)
If we had a slate last week, Byron would have been essential for lineups. From the pole, he led 80 laps and was in the position to win before getting a late bump by Hill. Byron has started on the front row in both races and we should expect the same for tomorrow’s event. He currently has the best odds to win at +300 via Bet Online. Furthermore, Byron is -105 to finish in the top three while only -135 to finish outside of the top three.
In the grand scheme of roster construction, I think you pick between Hill and Byron as a single dominator and then go for balance with drivers you expect to finish high.
Matt DiBenedetto $8500 (+2000)
If actual racing is going to translate into virtual racing, this is the time to jump on DiBenedetto. His recent history at Bristol is well documented with his improbable sixth-place finish in a soapbox derby car a few years back and second last year in the 95. However, I’m not basing this pick on real performance or else Kyle Busch would be a slam-dunk play.
In 310 starts, Matt has an average finish of sixth with a 66% top-five percentage, second-best in the field only to Hill. DiBenedetto has experience and I’m hoping that plus his prowess for Bristol translates into another top-five.
Ross Chastain $6400 (+4000)Â
If you do decide to play two dominators, you’ll need to save salary and Chastain feels like the safest bet near the bottom. Chastain has finished both races and perhaps through attrition, he can move forward into the top 10 tomorrow. With 537 career IRacing starts, he has plenty of virtual wheel time. Hopefully, that experience helps guide him past the likes of Jimmy Johnson and Austin Dillon.
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