Quaker State 400 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

The field is set for Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at Kentucky. A random draw, that no one witnessed, has put Kyle Busch on the pole and stuck Christopher Bell back in the mid-30s once again. Therefore, let’s break down this week’s top NASCAR DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.

The Random Draw Issue

First though, a rant of sorts. If you haven’t noticed, this random draw has created issues for those of us in the NASCAR DFS world. The only fantasy site you could play without this qualifying order impacting your process is Prize Picks. Regardless, the issue we have is these advice articles aren’t changing. Writers are recommending the same dominators, place differential, and punt plays week in and week out.

There isn’t much movement happening from 1-12, 13-24, or 25-36 in points. Thus, as the fields remain relatively static so also do the drivers we’re recommending and you’re playing. NASCAR isn’t going to change until they hold actual qualifying. Thus, we need sites to do something because the ownership numbers are getting absurd. If you’re reading this DraftKings, FanDuel, and even SuperDraft – please either do something with the scoring or salaries.

The Kyle Busch Conundrum

Now to some real NASCAR DFS analysis and it begins with the polesitter. What you do with Busch will ultimately set your table for Sunday. I hate to make it so simple but that’s the truth. Thanks to the random draw system, NASCAR DFS has become a matter of being on the right side of the chalk. Either you’re going to fall on the right side of Busch or not. Let’s explore his pros and cons as a dominator in your NASCAR DFS lineups.


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The Case for Kyle Busch

As Evan Silva might say, “this is Kyle M-F’n Busch”. We’re talking about the two-time NASCAR Cup champion. The driver who may approach 300 career wins in Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup combined by the end of his career. The talent is still there, it never left. It’s just an issue of does he really need practice time that badly?

You can look at Busch’s results year to date and see a strong correlation between track time and finishing position. Before Covid-19 shut things down, he finished 2nd at Auto Club and 3rd at Phoenix. In the 2nd Darlington race, he finished 2nd. In a 600-mile race at Charlotte, he finished 4th. Fast forward that next Sunday to Bristol, after 500 laps he finished 4th and led a large chunk of the laps. Heck, after this he showed some solid hope with 2nd at Atlanta and 6th at Homestead – tracks he had little car time in.

Perhaps Busch and crew chief Adam Stevens is on the same page and we should expect solid results from Busch at a track he’s performed well at. In the 9 years since the Cup Series started racing at Kentucky, Busch owns 2 wins and 5 other top-5 finishes. Busch has shown, despite this need for practice, that at tracks he’s been good at that he figures out even if the laps are lacking. We should expect the same Sunday from Rowdy.

Heck, even if Busch hasn’t technically jumped the curve, you know what he has on his side that no one else will? Clean air, that’s right, clean air. We know clean air is king and whatever performance issues this car may have come off the hauler, that clean air will cover those up. Passing at Kentucky is tough and should Busch sail off with that clean air we may see 100+ laps led out of the 18 Sunday.

The Case Against Kyle Busch

First and foremost we must begin with ownership. People have been waiting for Busch to look like the old Rowdy. Now that he’s on the pole, the crowd will flock to roster Busch expecting him to at least be a dominator if not an outright win. Second, his salary on DraftKings is still discounted at $10,100 which will only help to fuel his ownership.

However, I’m not so concerned about ownership. Look at my lineups on a weekly basis, I embrace chalk as if my life depended on it. My concern with Busch is can he actually deliver as a potential lap leader? If we look at the 11 Cup races, excluding Talladega for obvious reasons, since the return to racing we see that Busch is averaging the following:

  • Finish: 12.9 (7th)
  • Running position: 13.7 (11th)
  • Driver Rating: 92.6 (7th)
  • DraftKings points: 36.8 (9th)
  • FanDuel points: 54 (11th)
  • Fastest laps: 12.7 (9th)
  • Laps led: 10.1 (10th)

Those are fine numbers in all but numbers I would expect from Kurt Busch and not Kyle Busch. On the other hand, if I further remove the two short tracks utilizing the 750 horsepower package, two important numbers get dramatically worse. Busch’s fastest laps number falls from 12.7 per race to 7.8. More importantly, his laps led average falls from 10.1 to just 1.2 per race.

A top-10, heck even a top-5, probably isn’t in question for Busch this weekend. It’s all about those laps led and fastest laps points. If Busch is slower than Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, etc… then he’ll lose the lead, clean air be damned. Once he loses it he may not get it back, especially with no practice to help dial in that #18.

Other Potential Dominators

Play Kevin Harvick. Play Denny Hamlin. The article practically writes itself with as good as these two have been. Honestly, the #4 and the #11 are the two most consistent cars week in and week out. We know regardless of where they start, they will make their way to the lead, and eventually fight for the win. Due to salary constraints, you can’t just jam in the polesitter plus Harvick and Hamlin like past weeks. To be frank, you can but it leaves with you $5,800 left per driver on DraftKings. Not exactly where you want to be, place differential or dominator wise in a 267-lap race.

Thus, you’re going to have to decide if you want to pair Kyle Busch with either Harvick or Hamlin. Of course, if you’re not sold on Busch, you can easily just play Harvick and Hamlin together and move on to the rest of your lineup. One of these two keeps making the optimal lineup from race to race, if not both. Bet on the trend staying static.

Other potential lap leaders to add to your dominator pool include Joey Logano starting 2nd, Ryan Blaney starting 11th, and Chase Elliott in 8th. Logano simply gets the nod because he’s on the front row. He has a great history as a restarter and if he beats Busch off the line… smooth sailing. Blaney and Elliott make the list because they always seem to find a way forward. In this 550 horsepower package, you’ll always want a sprinkle of Blaney and Elliott. Not as headliners of your DraftKings or FanDuel lineups, but as a secondary lap leader.


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Place Differential Options

We’ve complained long enough about salaries being too soft on DraftKings. In response, DraftKings has jacked nearly everyone’s salaries up. Well, I don’t know for sure, that my weekly articles are moving the needle at an office space in Boston but it’s nice to imagine. Regardless, lineup construction is a little tougher this week on DK, which is what we want.

Michael McDowell 30th ($6,000 FanDuel, $5,700 DraftKings) – Continuing to not get respected McDowell is the punt du jour this week on DraftKings. Since the return to racing at Darlington, McDowell has an average finish of 18.5 including 8 top-20 finishes and 2 top-10s in the last 3 weeks. Outside of Corey Lajoie, McDowell is the only driver I want to have any exposure to from drivers under $5,900 on DraftKings.

Ryan Preece 32nd ($5,500 FanDuel, $6,300 DraftKings) – Priced up relative to where he’s been the past month, Preece is another great piece for your Kentucky lineups on either site. He was an unfortunate member of circumstance last week finishing dead last. Starting 32nd, Preece may be a bit chalky and when you consider ceilings – he may be better suited for cash. My projection model has Preece finishing 24th, fine for head to head games and double-ups but perhaps a shy-away from play in tournaments.

Austin Dillon 19th ($7,200 FanDuel, $6,500 DraftKings) – Your DraftKings pivot from the chalky Ryan Preece, Ty Dillon, and Cole Custer plays is to go with Dillon. My first inclination was to side with the cheaper Ryan Newman. However, at this point, I’m convinced that Newman has no ceiling. All he can hope for is to get a high random starting position and block the whole night trying to maintain it.

Dillon, on the other hand, does have a ceiling and we saw it last Sunday at Indianapolis. In fact, since Miami-Homestead, Dillon has run exceptionally well with finishes of 7th, 39th (Talladega), 19th, 14th, and 18th. The two Xfinity races have reinforced just how tough passing is here. Dillon will have the leg up, positionally, on the three aforementioned chalky drivers all starting 29th or worse.


Looking for more NASCAR DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NASCAR home page, just click HERE

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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