Following Chase Elliott‘s second victory in the 2021 Cup Season, NASCAR heads south for its second race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Let’s review this Sunday’s past action at Road America, the tidal wave of chalk that hit, and what to expect for our DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS picks and our NASCAR DFS strategy this weekend for the Quaker State 400.
NASCAR DFS Picks & Preview: Quaker State 400
Road America Review
Chase Elliott won a road race. Moving on to Atlanta …
Yes, there is tons more analysis following 62 laps at Elkhart Lake. However, the above sentence should be the least surprising thing about this past weekend. Despite failing to post a qualifying lap and having to start from the rear, Elliott found his way to the lead at the halfway point of the event and never looked back. The victory for Elliott marked his second win of the 2021 season, coincidentally both coming at road races. Elliott could very easily be 4-for-4 at road courses this season.
Perhaps the bigger story for Road America was the lack of carnage. With a wreck-filled practice on Saturday and multiple vehicles breaking down during Sunday’s qualifying, expectations were high for an attrition-filled race. Yet once the green flag waved, the race was relatively clean. In fact, there were no yellow flags due to wrecks. Only four times did the yellow flag wave — once for a stage break and the other three times for mechanical issues. Compared to previous Xfinity starts at Road America, this clean race was a welcome change. It is a shame, in hindsight, that it took the Cup Series this long to return back to Road America, as the track provided intriguing racing.
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Following qualifying on Sunday, DFS players were left with a question: Just how much chalk can one embrace, especially in a road course race? It turns out the answer was all of it.
Seven drivers were left without a qualifying effort. All of these drivers could easily fit in a lineup due to soft pricing plus optimal lineup strategy. Surely not all of these drivers could hit because any one of them could wreck or have a mechanical issue — especially someone like Kyle Busch, who was in a backup car that had yet to turn a single lap on the track. So who gets prioritization, and what should ownership caps be in a perceived chaotic road race?
By the end of 62 laps, the chalk managed to break through in a low probability outcome. Of these drivers starting 34th or worse, the driver with the lowest finishing position (Ty Dillon) was the one carrying the lowest ownership, and he managed to pick up 13 positions. Of the other six, the worst DFS outcome was Bubba Wallace driving from 37th to 24th. Meanwhile, Elliott, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. all finished within the top 12. A core of Elliott, Busch, Briscoe, Dillon and Stenhouse crushed across both DraftKings and FanDuel, as chalk skeptics were disciplined for their lack of faith.
All of the chalk succeeding is a tough proposition, to begin with. Add on several of these drivers finishing with career-highs for a road course and it makes for a DFS situation that may never happen again. For those who profited, enjoy the outcome because these chalky situations crushing as they did on Sunday are few and far between.
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Back in Atlanta
For the first time since 2010, the NASCAR Cup Series will enjoy a second race at Atlanta in the same season. On the other hand, unlike previous seasons with two Atlanta races, this year finds NASCAR returning to Atlanta in mid-July.
If not from or around the South, this might come as a bit of a shock, but Atlanta in July is not nearly the same as Atlanta in March or September as fans have been accustomed to seeing. Compared to March’s event, temperatures could be 30 degrees or hotter on Sunday. The forecast for Hampton, Georgia looks to be cloudy with temperatures pegging out in the upper 80s. However, should the cloud cover move out, it could easily become a hot and humid day in Atlanta with temps in the mid-90s.
Regardless of what the clouds do or do not do, the best race to look back upon would be the 2020 Atlanta race. Due to COVID-19, the Atlanta race that season was postponed from March until June 7. It was an unseasonably warm day at Atlanta Motor Speedway, even for early June. Track conditions at the already warn-out venue became even more treacherous. On that Sunday, excelling at Atlanta was not just about tire management but doing so with a hot, slick track with even less grip than usual.
2020 Atlanta
That 2020 Atlanta race was a tale about three drivers. Initially it was Elliott starting from the pole, leading the first 26 laps until a competition caution, losing the lead on pit road and never seeing it again. Oddly enough, the same thing happened to Denny Hamlin as the pole sitter in this year’s race. Regardless, even though there were 20 lead changes following this exchange on pit road, the race was truly about two drivers: Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick. After taking the lead on Lap 66, Truex would trade the lead with other drivers for six total times leading 65 laps. Harvick led initially on Lap 37, for 29 laps, and then another 17 laps on Lap 70. Yet his biggest mark on the race would come in the third segment when he led 105 of the final 108 laps.
Truex’s surge early and through the middle part of the race reflected his ability to handle a hot slick track. Think back to this year’s Darlington race on Mother’s Day weekend. Darlington, a track with similar track conditions to Atlanta, witnessed uncharacteristic heat for early May in South Carolina. Truex took the lead early in that race and led 248 of 293 laps. Now go back to the first Atlanta race in March. On a cloudy day with depressed temperatures, Truex failed to lead a single lap despite starting second.
The story around Harvick appears to be based around Rodney Childers putting a setup on the No. 4 that was suited for late in the race. After running fifth after the first segment and sixth in the second segment, Harvick came to life around Lap 218 and sailed away only yielding the lead for the final set of pit stops at Lap 268.
Sunday Expectations
Should the sun peek its head out on Sunday, Atlanta could become quite the track to handle. However, waiting for NBC to show Parker Kligerman on pit road so DFS players can see cloud cover versus the sun is a ridiculous game and a fool’s errand. Research and expectations for Atlanta should come down to two factors: Performance in the 550-horsepower package thus far paired with performance at high-tire wear venues this season. In fact, these may matter more than actual Atlanta numbers themselves due to the majority of these races being run recently in late winter.
The potential dominators are obvious. and so is the chalk for this week. as Road America’s results impact the starting grid for Sunday. Regardless, with 260 laps on tap, this week is a two-dominator build at most and perhaps even just one should a driver replicate Larson’s effort from earlier this season.
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