South Point 400 NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

The field is set for Sunday’s South Point 400 with Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch on the front row. Therefore, let’s jump into the top NASCAR DFS plays for this Sunday’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.


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Lineup Construction

After two weeks of multiple-dominator variability, we return to an intermediate track with just 267 laps. Thus, whether on DraftKings or FanDuel, we’re looking at just two dominators on either site. We could possibly look to push that line to 3 dominators on DraftKings. However, we have salary constraints up at the top with drivers like Harvick. Plus, we have a few drivers in the latter teens who have appeal as semi-dominators while also possessing some place differential.


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Kevin Harvick on the Pole

For the 5th time this season, Harvick finds himself on the pole. With salary considered, if you would have faded Harvick in his four previous starts as the polesitter, you would have come out in the positive more often than not.

Kansas – led 9 laps, finished 4th.

Daytona Road Course – led 0 laps, finished 17th.

Daytona – led 6 laps, finished 20th

Richmond – led 41 laps, finished 7th.

Needless to say, the Series most winningest driver this year (9) has failed to win from the pole or even really be a serious dominator threat. However, that above picture isn’t entirely correct. While not technically the polesitter, Harvick did start P1 back here in Las Vegas in February after Kyle Busch failed technical inspection multiple times. From that position, Harvick led 92 total laps and finished 8th. His 92 laps led were tops on the day as well. So, is there any way of reconciling the above numbers?

Of course, there is. At Kansas, he started next to premium restarter Joey Logano. Not to mention, Harvick hasn’t been that hot in night races at intermediate tracks. Neither of the Daytona races needs explaining. Richmond was an oddly clean race with no real cautions and the #4 set up in night races at short tracks hasn’t been nearly as good as Hamlin, Elliott, or Keselowski’s cars. Las Vegas was a track he’s had success at, he had clean air, and he ended up being the top dominator that day.

This is a very long way to say that I anticipate the same thing Sunday. With the premium starting position, clean air, and next to perenially disappointing Kyle Busch (at Las Vegas that is) he should have no issue replicating what he did back in February. For what its worth, in this 550 horsepower package at 1.5 to 2-mile long tracks during the day (7 races), Harvick has 3 wins and is averaging 22.9 fastest laps and 68 laps led.

Other Potential Dominators

Joey Logano 5th ($12,800 FanDuel, $10,300 DraftKings) – While I do worry about the consistency, or lack thereof, that Logano is coming into Las Vegas with at intermediate tracks – you can’t ignore his Vegas numbers. Dating back to 2014, Logano has led at least 44 laps in every Las Vegas race save for the race in 2017. During that time his finishes have gone 4, 10, 2, 4, 7, 4, 1, 9, and 1. No one else in the field comes close to that consistency. Playing Logano is hoping that whatever magic book of notes he has on this track translates into another top-10 finish paired with 50+ laps led.

Ryan Blaney 15th ($11,500 FanDuel, $9,100 DraftKings) – In my preview from earlier this week, I used the corollary tracks of Kentucky and Texas as venues to look at due to the same left-side tire being used. While Blaney was so-so at Kentucky, he showed up at Texas and blew the field away leading 150 laps. This weekend projects to be just as hot and slick as that weekend in Fort Worth was. Vegas is another low tire-wear track and perhaps Blaney can take advantage of his prowess with this tire and translate it into success at a track he’s had 3 top-5 finishes at in the last 5 Vegas races.

Are you sensing a Penske theme? Their crew accounts for 3 of the last 4 Las Vegas wins and no one has an average finish outside of the top-10 here since 2017. Thus, add the 2018 Las Vegas Fall winner Brad Keselowski to your dominator pool as well. Keselowski and Logano are the only drivers in the field to not finish outside of 7th since ’17 here at Vegas.

My dominator pool is extraordinarily shallow this week and the only other names I would include are Martin Truex Junior and Chase Elliott. Truex is your most recent winner at Vegas in the fall and he excelled in the 2018 version of this race too. Save for a 20th place finish in February, he’s been a top-10 machine at Vegas too like the Penske boys. Elliott has been up and down at Vegas with 2 DNFs and only 3 lead lap finishes since 2017. However, in this race last year he finished 4th and he was leading after both stage breaks back in the Spring before finishing 26th after he led 70 laps.

Cash Place Differential Options

Ricky Stenhouse Jr 33rd ($7,000 FanDuel, $7,800 DraftKings) – DraftKings must have disregarded Stenhouse’s salary this week, despite his 33rd starting position. Perhaps, like the whales, they are too focused on NFL DFS. Regardless, Stenhouse is a fairly safe bet for at least a top-20 finish matching his average in day races at intermediate tracks (22). More importantly, though, Stenhouse has shown a ceiling at Vegas evidenced by his 3rd place finish here in February.

Christopher Bell 26th ($7,200 FanDuel, $7,100 DraftKings) – If you look at track history for Bell here, all you find is his 33rd place finish in February. It’s been nearly 7 months but if you’ll remember back to that time, the #95 team started about as bad as it could. Bell followed up this performance with 38th at Auto Club. Thus, don’t hold that race against him as it doesn’t reflect him now. If looking for correlation, Bell did manage to finish 7th at Kentucky. However, for cash purposes, we just need a finish in the 15-20 range.

Others; Ryan Newman, Ty Dillon, Cole Custer

Tournament Place Differential Options

Chris Buescher 16th ($6,000 FanDuel, $6,200 DraftKings) – Buescher is your tournament pivot off the much chalkier Cole Custer, Ty Dillon, Matt Kenseth, or Corey Lajoie. Since 2017, Buescher’s worst finish at Las Vegas is 23rd and that was back in 2017. Since then he’s been a near auto bet for 15th through 18th. Thus, considering his starting position it may feel like his ceiling is capped as he probably just finishes where he started. However, if the rest of those drivers more suited for cash fail to move up and get stuck a lap down, Buescher will be the better value with a better finish at a cheaper salary.

Matt Dibenedetto 19th ($8,500 FanDuel, $7,900 DraftKings) – Now that Dibenedetto is no longer in the playoff picture, he can actually be a value thanks to his starting position no longer getting pressed up. Regardless, with Dibenedetto, we get the Penske corollary and it showed in February when he finished 2nd (by hook or by crook). Furthermore, the #21 team still hasn’t made a formal announcement about picking up their option for him in 2021. Now that 2 seats have come off the market, so to say, Dibenedetto really does need to focus on showcasing his talents and proving to the Wood Brothers that he needs another year in their car and not Austin Cindric.

For what it’s worth, in our 7 race data set with the 550 horsepower package at intermediate tracks – Dibenedetto’s average finish is 11.7 with a 3rd at Kentucky.


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Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com

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