The front row is set for Saturday’s race at New Hampshire, with Jeb Burton and Justin Haley leading the way. Let’s break down some NASCAR DFS strategy for the race this weekend and dive into the top Xfinity NASCAR DFS picks for the Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 NASCAR DFS Picks
Austin Cindric, 4th ($10,700 DraftKings)
It feels odd to note that Cindric only has four victories in the 2021 season, and none at road courses. However, his second win of the season came way back at Phoenix after he led 119 of 200 laps. This is on top of the 72 laps he led in the 2020 championship race at Phoenix, which he also won. This should point to Cindric excelling Saturday at New Hampshire, with Phoenix being the best track to compare New Hampshire to. Box score hunters may shy away from Cindric based on career finishes of 12th and 17th, but on the other hand, the 2019 and 2018 versions of Cindric are not the driver DFS players know today.
Starting fourth, Cindric should be the top option as a dominator among all drivers starting towards the front. Not starting on the front row should not scare off anyone, as he led the most laps in back-to-back Phoenix races from the second row.
Christopher Bell, 14th ($11,500 DraftKings)
Sure, Bell is not Kyle Busch. Yet this salary is ludicrous for Bell and a real mispricing on DraftKings part. To begin with, Bell’s talent instantly makes him the best driver in Saturday’s field. Even so, being better only made Bell $800 more than Cindric and $500 more than Allgaier. Quite frankly, if not for the starting position, chances are that Bell might be cheaper than these two. Instead of gauging drivers’ merits according to salaries, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook where Bell is +130 to win as the outright favorite.
Furthermore, Bell will be in the No. 54 on Saturday, which coincidentally has been the best car in the Xfinity Series this season. With anyone but Ty Dillon behind the wheel, this car has been a contender week in and week out with seven victories and nine straight top-five finishes dating back to Dover. In fact, the No. 54 has failed to finish outside of the top five with anyone but Dillon as the wheelman. Now Bell and his two victories at Loudon in the Xfinity Series take control of this car. It is all lining up for Bell to smash on Saturday and do so at a value.
Brandon Brown, 22nd ($7,500 DraftKings)
A second bad finish (Atlanta, 31st) in four weeks has taken Brown out of the Xfinity playoff picture, trailing Riley Herbst by just 2 points. With two road courses and Daytona remaining in the regular-season schedule, New Hampshire provides an opportunity for Brown to get back up on his feet and bring home a finish to put him back in the playoffs.
Outside of Atlanta and Nashville, Brown has finishes of 11th, 15th, 13th, sixth and fourth going back to Charlotte. Earlier this season, in the best track corollary to New Hampshire (Phoenix), Brown had his best career finish of third, aided by some late cautions. Saturday should be a day that Brown improves on his lone finish of 16th, in 2019, as his eyes should be set on where Herbst who has yet to race at New Hampshire, and Tommy Joe Martins (no finish better than 20th at Loudon) are racing.
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Brandon Jones, 23rd ($10,100 DraftKings)
Toyota is the name of the game here in New Hampshire with Joe Gibbs winning the past five Xfinity races at Loudon. Christopher Bell as the favorite, listed above, is an obvious choice. Using the same corollary, it is hard not to pull the trigger on Brandon Jones who offers place differential as well as access to a Toyota with +2000 odds. For the sake of reference, that sandwiches Jones between both Kaulig drivers starting on the front row. All things equal, Jones’ teammate Harrison Burton has +1100 odds to win, but at just $500 more on DraftKings, DFS players should opt for the driver with the higher ceiling/floor combo in Jones.
J.J. Yeley, 36th ($8,400 DraftKings)
Considering DFS did not exist back in the mid-2000s when Yeley had the reigns of the No. 18 before Busch left Hendrick, this price tag has to be the most expensive Yeley has ever been. Perhaps, this plus $8,000 tag will keep DFS players away, especially for a driver most commonly associated with Rick Ware’s Cup program. Still, in this No. 17 car for Rick Ware/SS Green Light, Yeley has been a fantastic source of place differential all season.
With three top-15 finishes, and no finish worse than 24th in 2021, Yeley carries a safe projection of 27 points up to 38 should be press into the top 15. That said, with this salary Yeley will need to finish 15th or better to approach value.
Spencer Boyd, 40th ($5,200)
With a little money in his pocket, Boyd takes the seat of the No. 52 generally filled by Gray Gaulding. This will be Boyd’s first start in the Xfinity Series in 2021, which is not all that concerning since Boyd has been racing in the Trucks Series for Youngs Motorsports. Boyd has also seen this track twice in an Xfinity car, with finishes of 24th and 27th.
Boiled down, the appeal of Boyd is a lower to mid-tier team that will not start and park, starting dead last, combined with where everyone else in this price range starts. Last week both Colby Howard and Ryan Vargas were recommended plays and finished in the top 20. That was fantastic for lineups last week, yet now they both start in the top 25 and have tough hills to climb to being values much less being optimal. Boyd enters the fray for New Hampshire as the preferred punt play, regardless of format.
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