After a long road to get here, NBA Finals Game 1 begins tonight. The stakes have never been higher for these two team, and we should see an exciting series between the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers. Lineup construction on these single-game NBA DFS slates may be a bit tricky, but there are some NBA DFS picks more likely to go off than others.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
Ben’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, Sept. 30.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Anthony Davis vs. Heat: DraftKings: $12,000, 7.4% Boom | FanDuel: $14,500, 3.1% Boom
Davis had two games against Miami this season, which were two solid outings. He put up a 33-point double-double in one game then was just two rebounds and three assists away from a 26-point triple-double in the other. Davis also totaled three blocks in each, which he could continue to do given the Heat are undersized. If he continues to add high blocks and some steals, Davis could be in for the best performance of the day.
Editors Note:
The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool is pegging Anthony Davis as a 7.4% boom candidate, which means there’s a likelihood he could hit the over on his NBA prop bet for points scored. The new Awesemo OddsShopper tool searches all the big betting sites and finds the best price for your bet. Click here to start shopping!
Alex Caruso vs. Heat: DraftKings: $3,000, 6.0% Boom | FanDuel: $7,000, 0.0% Boom
You may need a bit of salary relief when constructing your perfect NBA DFS lineup today. Caruso can be that for you, but only on DraftKings. He has been getting minutes in the mid-20s, adding a few stats across the board. Caruso is a great option on DraftKings, but he’s too similarly priced on FanDuel to have much value.
LeBron James vs. Heat: DraftKings: $13,200, 3.6% Boom | FanDuel: $15,500, 0.7% Boom
James has continued to struggle in Game 1 of series this postseason, but this is the NBA Finals. He should come to play against a team that is calling him out. The fact that it is his former team and coach doesn’t hurt. LeBron was one rebound away from a 28-point triple-double last time he faced them. He is also coming off a 38-point triple-double, so he has to feel good about where his game is.
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Bust Candidates
Duncan Robinson vs Lakers: DraftKings: $6,800, 95.4% Bust | FanDuel: $9,000, 99.8% Bust
Robinson is a streaky 3-point shooter that can fill it up in a hurry. However, he faces a Lakers team that could give him some trouble. First, the Lakers have a couple perimeter defenders that will challenge shots much better than some of the defense he has faced in the playoffs. Second, the Lakers will try to keep this game slower to ensure Miami doesn’t get out in transition and start draining 3’s from everywhere. If the Lakers are able to control the pace, Robinson could be in for a tough day.
Kelly Olynyk vs Lakers: DraftKings: $2,000, 89.2% Bust | FanDuel: $6,500, 100% Bust
Olynyk has simply not gotten the playing time to be trustworthy at even this low of a salary. The last time he played 20 minutes was Aug. 14, and Olynyk averaged 10 minutes played last series. They probably do not want him on the floor guarding Davis or one of the Lakers centers.
Danny Green vs Heat: DraftKings: $4,200, 71.9% Bust | FanDuel: $9,000, 100% Bust
Green has shown up a few times this postseason, but most of his performances have been letdowns. He’s made multiple shots just once in the past three games, and the matchup against the Heat doesn’t overly excite us.
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