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NBA Optimal Lineups Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel John Collins | Tuesday, Nov. 9

Terry McBride



Tuesday’s tiny three-game NBA DFS slate is at least graced with games that are all carrying reasonably appealing totals, with the earliest game between Milwaukee and Philadelphia coming in lowest (218). That game features massive value appeal on the slate, however, and it will be critically important to the outcome of most lineups entered into GPPs across the industry. The remaining two games are carrying totals above 220, and both feature solid values and potential stars with obvious paths toward ceiling games at their salaries. This is a difficult slate to build unique lineups for. Focusing on the leverage factors and optimal lineup rates is a strong guide rail through lineup construction for NBA DFS contests tonight.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With only three games on the slate, the focus is on the best overall plays on the board from all angles. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Check out Alex Hunter’s Boom/Bust Tool article, where he breaks down some of the top boom and bust candidates from Awesemo’s expert projections. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Andre Drummond: DraftKings — $5,700 — C | FanDuel — $5,500 — C

A salary increase of $1,500 on FanDuel and $2,200 on DraftKings does nothing to diminish how important Andre Drummond will be do DFS lineups once again. A night after posting 50 fantasy points on 14 real points and a whopping 25 rebounds, Drummond is in line for similar upside, filling in for Joel Embiid once again. Drummond is averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute, and he has a 15.3% assist rate and 26.1% rebound share. He is the play of plays once again today, regardless of where his ownership trends.

On DraftKings, Drummond tops the optimal lineups column by more than 25 percentage points at 71.6%. He is projected to be highly popular, with public ownership currently sitting at 59.1%, and likely to rise as lock approaches. Still, he makes a phenomenal play at his bargain price, even with it climbing into the midrange. Drummond is projected for 51.8 DraftKings points and a 73.3% boom score probability tonight, and he comes with a gigantic 12.5 leverage score on the slate. This is as good as good chalk gets.

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Drummond is also the king of the FanDuel slate. He lands atop the optimal lineup rate column, coming up in the best lineup in 75.2% of simulated slates for tonight. He has a 51.9 median projection and a 79.7% boom score probability, Drummond’s optimal rate is close to a few other interesting plays on this slate, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis both also landing in the optimal lineup in more than 50% of simulations, but his boom score probability is more than double either of those options, setting him far apart as the best play on the blue site.

Eric MacPherson is also looking at Andre Drummond as a core option for tonight’s DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, which he discussed at length in his NBA DFS Building Blocks article today.

C.J. McCollum: DraftKings — $7,200 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $8,000 — SG

Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum comes in as a strong value play on the DraftKings slate and an excellent mid-range option on FanDuel. McCollum has been largely living up to expectations through the early part of the season. He is averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute on 28.2% usage through the season’s first 10 games. That is a tick down from the 1.11 points per minute he produced on 29.9% usage last season, but not to a dramatic degree. He has a 54.2% true shooting percentage and a 19.5% assist rate this season while putting up a 5.9% rebounding rate in his 34 minutes a night. This is one of the top plays among guards for NBA DFS point-scoring upside across both sites tonight.

McCollum also provides multi-position eligibility between both guard spots on the DraftKings slate, giving him added utility in lineup creation. He ranks as the third-most frequently optimal player at any position on the slate, appearing in the top lineup in 43.1% of simulated slates. Getting to added shares of McCollum’s enticing upside is easy, considering his excellent 7.5 leverage score and just 35.6% ownership on a slate with only three games. For this player at a severely discounted price, that is can’t-miss appeal. McCollum is projected for 39.7 DraftKings points, and he has a 37.4% boom score probability that ranks fourth overall on the slate and first at either guard spot. This is a play to go to again and again on the site, exceeding the field’s projected ownership is advised.

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The play looks very similar on FanDuel despite a lack of point guard eligibility and an increased relative price. McCollum is just a shooting guard on the blue site, and he is listed at an $8,000 tag that reduces his boom score to a 20% mark despite a steady NBA DFS points projection of 38.6. McCollum is projected for a mere 30.3% public ownership share, which is too low for a player who lands in the optimal lineup in 39.8% of simulated slates. That ranks fifth-highest on the FanDuel slate and first among eligible guards. McCollum has an excellent 9.5 leverage score that demands inclusion in sharp lineups.

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John Collins: DraftKings — $6,800 — PF/C | FanDuel — $6,800 — PF/C

Seemingly underpriced for his talent and general upside, as well as the fact that there are scant few plays of quality on a three-game slate, John Collins looks like an excellent option across the NBA DFS industry tonight. He is averaging a sharp 1.11 fantasy points per minute over his first 11 games, up from a 1.08 mark across all situations last season. Collins has done that with a usage rate that dropped from 19.4% last year to just 17.7%, with much of his excellence coming from a 69.7% true shooting percentage to this point in the season. Collins is also posting a sturdy 11.1% assist percentage and 14% rebounding rate.

Collins ranks 10th overall on DraftKings, landing in the optimal lineup in 22.6% of simulated slates. He has multi-position eligibility between power forward and center, making him the fourth-ranked center and third-highest power forward in the category. With that high an optimal lineup rate, it is surprising to see Collins land at a 4.9 leverage score. He has a 20.3% boom score probability and a 33.7 DraftKings points projection tonight, but it is the leverage that ranks second among eligible centers that is most appealing on a short slate. Getting to additional shares of Collins at 18.7% ownership will be a breeze.

Collins comes up as a better play across town on FanDuel. He is a multi-position player at both power forward and center on this site as well, and he costs the same $6,800 against a more friendly cap. Collins lands in the optimal lineup in 42.5% of simulated slates for the blue site, making him the fourth-most optimal player overall and the third-ranked play at both power forward and center. His 33.3-point median projection and 19.7% boom score probability are both quality marks, but the public is not getting enough shares. Collins is currently projected for 34.3% ownership which leaves him with an excellent 8.2 leverage score. Building lineups with a foundation of all three players in this article is a positively leveraged play on the FanDuel slate tonight, they make an excellent base from which to build a variety of constructions, but paying attention to the plays that fill in around them to create likely unique entries is critical on such a small slate.

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Our NBA DFS projections FanDuel are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. View our DraftKings NBA ownership projections, our Yahoo! ownership projections and our FanDuel ownership. We also have Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings, FanDuel ownership rankings and DraftKings NBA rankings for today's slate. Looking for more NBA daily fantasy advice today and the top NBA DFS picks tonight? Check out our DFS rankings NBA for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA DFS projections FanDuel.

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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