NBA Optimal Lineups Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Malik Beasley | Saturday, Oct. 23

Saturday features what looks like a low-scoring seven-game NBA DFS slate, with just one game cracking the 230-point mark on the board in Vegas. There are several relatively tight point spreads on the board, suggesting competitive situations that would lend themselves to creating DFS scoring upside and there are a number of standout players among both the star and value tiers from across the slate that high-ceiling unique lineup constructions should be relatively easy to come by this evening. Utilizing Awesemo’s custom NBA Boom/Bust Tool, we can take a top-down view of the entire slate and easily identify the best leverage plays as well as both the “good” and “bad” chalk plays going into the slate. These data points help inform our roster construction decisions, pointing to where we want to be above and below the field’s exposure, and also can provide clarity with regard to potential price pivots.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this will be a broad view of both top-end and value plays. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jonas Valanciunas — New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings — $7,200 — C | FanDuel — $6,300 — C

Jonas Valanciunas was one of the top value plays on the board yesterday, providing major upside and a significant optimal lineup appearance rate across both sites. The Pelicans’ center played 29 minutes, scoring 18 points on 8-11 shooting and pulling in eight rebounds with a blocked shot and three assists, delivering solid value for his low price. DraftKings sites responded by keeping Valanciunas’ price the same, FanDuel dropped it by $200. Over the season’s first two games, without Zion Williamson, Valanciunas has seen a 23.1% usage rate and 31.4 minutes per game, posting 1.03 fantasy points per minute. Valanciunas is a standout value on both sites once again (he is properly priced at $32 on Yahoo), and he will be under-owned across the industry.

On the FanDuel slate, Valanciunas ranks as the most frequently optimal play in Awesemo’s simulations, and it is not particularly close. The New Orleans center comes up as the best play at the position a whopping 58.8% of the time, the next-highest player on the slate is Kristaps Porzingis at a 35.2% rate. Unfortunately, Valanciunas is not a secret on this slate, he is projected for more than 50% ownership on the blue site, but his optimal lineup rate has him coming up with a positive leverage score of 4.9 that ranks 11th among all players and first among eligible centers. With a raw FanDuel point projection over 40 and a gargantuan 77.4% boom score probability, Valanciunas is a foundational play for FanDuel lineups tonight, he can be confidently rostered in excess of even the sizable shares to which the field is exposed.

Valanciunas brings all of those favorable aspects to the DraftKings slate while adding the value of being monumentally under-owned. His 51.9% optimal lineup appearance rate is a slate-leader on this site as well, while he has a significant 47.6 DraftKings point total and a 68.7% boom score probability that simply screams upside. The best indicator on the board by far is the titanic leverage score that the center is carrying. He will be the optimal play in more than half of all simulation results, but he is projected for just 23.5% ownership, creating a 28.4 leverage score that is basically unprecedented for such a highly optimal and valuable play. If the ownership projections and leverage hold, Valanciunas is a smash play on this DraftKings slate.

Dejounte Murray — San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings — $7,100 — PG | FanDuel — $8,100 — PG/SG

In the interest of not making today’s column just a run-back of what we wrote in this space yesterday, this is simply a call-out that Dejounte Murray is an excellent play across both sites once again. He has significant positive leverage with a score in excess of 10 across the industry, and he remains underpriced on both sites.

OG Anunoby — Toronto Raptors

DraftKings — $6,300 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $6,900 — SG/SF

A lower-owned play across both sites, OG Anunoby seems a bit underappreciated for his clear upside on this slate. The Raptors forward is never anyone’s favorite play, but he was a 0.93 fantasy point per minute producer last season while seeing just 19.3% usage and he has averaged 25.1% usage across all situations in two games so far this season. Anunoby, of course, has somehow turned the increased opportunity into fewer fantasy points, coming in at just 0.79 per minute, but the path to upside seems obvious and the price is right, given a 36.1-minute projection from Awesemo.

On the blue site, Anunoby comes in with an 18.8% optimal lineup appearance rate that slots in 13th overall on the slate, and seventh at both the shooting guard and small forward position. His 18.9% boom score probability lands 20th overall on the slate and he carries a projection over 33 FanDuel points. Anunoby will be owned by the field, but at an easy-to-exceed rate of just 14.3%, giving him a positive leverage mark of 4.5 that sits 12th-best on the slate. While he may not be the player to win someone an NBA DFS tournament with a ceiling score, Anunoby may just be the differentiated play that sets a lineup apart from the field at the very top of standings with just a strong median score.

The DraftKings board looks even more promising for Anunoby shares. He slots in at both forward spots on the site, dropping the guard eligibility that he had across town, positioning that would have given him increased flexibility with DraftKings guard spot. Still, the forward comes into the slate with a 20.4% optimal lineup appearance rate that sits seventh among players of any position on the site. He has a strong 33.2% boom score probability against his 34.9 projected DraftKings points but the field is trailing ownership on him on this site as well. Anunoby comes in with just 15% projected ownership, creating a nice opportunity with a 5.4 leverage score that makes him an excellent mid-range play for GPP play in DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.

Leveraged Value Plays

Cameron Payne — DraftKings — $3,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $3,900 PG/SG

Malik Beasley — DraftKings — $5,100 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $5,000 — SF/SG

Two players who stand out from further down the board represent strong value plays on both sites, acting as potential price and popularity pivots when needed. Malik Beasley appears in the optimal lineup in 10.5% of FanDuel simulations and 9.4% of the runs on DraftKings. The small forward/shooting guard will be rostered at just a 1.9% clip on the latter site and less than that on the former, giving him a significant leverage score of 7.5 on DraftKings and 9.7 on FanDuel. Beasley posted 1.34 fantasy points per minute in the season opener, despite seeing just 20.5 minutes and 16.1% usage, last season he averaged 23.5% usage and 0.91 fantasy points per minute. With the available leverage, Beasley is a terrific tournament pivot, despite just a low-20s raw point projection and a boom score probability in the low teens.

Similarly, Cameron Payne stands out from an even lower value tier, coming in below $4,000 on both sites. Payne has put up 0.89 fantasy points per minute across the Suns’ first two games this season, playing just 16.6 minutes a night so far. He has seen a jump in usage from 19.3% last season to 25.9% over the first two games of this year, but the per-minute mark is a dip from the 1.02 he posted in the 20-21 season. Payne is projected for 19.6 minutes tonight with about a fantasy point per minute projected. He is landing in the optimal lineup in 10.2% of FanDuel simulations against less than one percent ownership, giving him an excellent 9.3 leverage score. On DraftKings, Payne comes up optimal in 8.4% of simulated contests, but he will be owned by just 2.3% of the field, again creating opportunity with his 6.1 leverage score on the site.

Neither of these players is the prime pick of the day, but either one could deliver the value and, almost more importantly, the lineup differentiation needed to take down a major tournament score on either site. The plays are priced inexpensively and have enough leverage against the public, as of mid-afternoon projections, that they do not need to be successful with much frequency to make this a valuable play in the long term if a consistent process is maintained throughout the season.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

[NBAPAGE]

Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.