NBA DFS Optimizer Lineup Picks Today for DraftKings & FanDuel

Sunday has an early-starting seven-game slate set for 6 pm ET. With three games carrying totals in the 220s and a handful of tight point spreads we should see plenty of NBA DFS production across the league once again. The optimal lineups in early simulations feature a strong blend of stars and scrubs once again, with some of the biggest names in the game rising to the top of the board along with some of the lowest-priced options on the slate. Sorting through the field by utilizing player’s boom score probability and leverage scores is a strong approach to figuring out a slate of this nature.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this will be a closer look at the most positively leveraged plays on the board. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Check out Alex Hunter’s Boom/Bust Tool article, where he breaks down some of the top boom and bust candidates from Awesemo’s expert projections. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Paul George: DraftKings — $10,400 — SF | FanDuel — $10,800 — SG/SF

Despite a price that has risen to elite heights on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Paul George is looking like a strong play across the industry. The Clippers’ standalone star does a bit of everything on the court, making him an appealing NBA DFS option on moth slates. He has a 25.5% assist percentage and a 10.9% rebounding share this season to go with a 59.3% true shooting percentage. George averages 35 minutes a night has been putting up 1.46 fantasy points per minute on 33.5% usage. The star wing was at a 1.20 per-minute mark on similar usage last season, but there is a realistic path to sustained production at this level through the season in the team’s current configuration. George is a strong play that the public is not getting to frequently enough on this slate.

With only small forward eligibility on DraftKings, George still lands as the second-highest ranked player by optimal lineup appearance rate. He lands in the top lineup in Awesemo’s simulations in 29.9% of the time, trailing only Bobby Portis in early returns. George is projected for a whopping 56.4 DraftKings points with a 46% boom score probability despite the very high price tag. The public seems reluctant to roster George at such an inflated price tag, he will be in lineups but not nearly as much as he should be, landing at just 20.4% popularity. That mark leaves him with a 9.5 leverage score that ranks second among all players on the site. George should be rostered well beyond the level to which the public is including him so far, even if things draw more even in public popularity he should be rostered aggressively.

The same is true across town on the blue site. George lands as the third-most frequently optimal play on the entire slate. He adds shooting guard eligibility on the site as well, extending his value significantly. George lands in the top lineup in 30.8% of simulated slates and he has a 33.2% boom score probability with a 53.9-point median FanDuel point projection. The Clippers’ star is the most positively leveraged play on the slate, the public is projected for less than 20% ownership, leaving an outstanding 13.8 leverage score on one of the most highly projected players on the board. This is a mistake by the field that should be exploited by sharp owners.

Drew Eubanks: DraftKings — $4,400 — C | FanDuel — $4,400 — C/PF

With just a 22-minute projection, this one is all about the value in the low price on Drew Eubanks tonight. The Spurs’ backup big man is on the board once again in the absence of teammate Jakob Poeltl, and he is slightly outpacing fellow frontcourt replacement Thaddeus Young this time out. Young is also coming up as a highly optimal play on the FanDuel slate, less so where he has been priced up on DraftKings. It is Eubanks who is popping on both sites, given strong optimal lineup rates and a general lack of extreme popularity. With positive leverage across the board, this is a targetable play with upside. Eubanks is averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute so far this season, though he has averaged just 13.2 minutes per game. He has a 51.1% true shooting percentage with a 13.4% assist rate and 13.8% rebounding percentage while taking up just 17.4% usage. Eubanks is a cheap efficient play that NBA DFS owners can get to in GPPs tonight.

On FanDuel, Eubanks ranks second on the board with a 32.3% optimal lineup appearance rate. He adds power forward eligibility on the site, which gives him excellent flexibility for rotating through a variety of lineup constructions with other pieces on the slate. Eubanks has a 48% boom score probability and a 29.4 median projection on the site, but the public is getting to him at just an 18.8% clip. That mark makes Eubanks the second-most positively leveraged play behind George at a 13.5. With a great price, clear scoring upside, and positive leverage, this seems like a click that barely needs thinking about, fire away with Eubanks shares as needed, he is an excellent value.

The appeal is only slightly diminished on DraftKings, where Eubanks is available only at the center position. He costs the same $4,400 on the site and he is further ahead of Young on the board based on his teammate’s increased price on the site. Eubanks comes in with a 21.5% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks fifth overall on the site and third among eligible centers. He has a 37.5% boom score probability that also sites third among centers, while he is projected within range of the options above him for less money and far less relative popularity. Eubanks has just a 12.2% public ownership projection which creates a monster 9.3 leverage score on the slate. Getting additional shares of Eubanks as a go-to value play is a strong option on this site as well, he should be rostered frequently across the NBA DFS industry tonight.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Miles Bridges: DraftKings — $8,100 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $8,400 — SF

One of the only plays that stands out from the mid-range on both sites tonight, Miles Bridges deserves some attention. Bridges has had a strong start to his season, he has increased his fantasy point production significantly so far this year. Last season the Hornets’ forward averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute on 24.6% usage, this year he has bumped that production to 1.19 fantasy points per minute while receiving 24.1% usage. Bridges is receiving 35.9 minutes per game and he has contributed across the board, producing a 12.9% assist rate and 10.1% rebounding rate, as well as a 57.6% true shooting percentage. Bridges is a player that the public may not want to pay over $8,000 for across the industry, he is coming up less popular than he should be, which is to our advantage if it holds up heading into lock. Charlotte is also likely to be without center Mason Plumlee tonight, which will simply create more to do in terms of available rebounds and opportunities.

Bridges ranks eighth among all players on the DraftKings slate, coming in with a 19.7% optimal lineup appearance rate. That mark sits third in each of the forward positions, Bridges can be switched between the two. He is carrying a strong 42.5-point median projection and a 31.6% boom score probability that is ninth-best among all players on the slate, but the public is well behind the curve once again. Bridges is projected for a mere 8.9% popularity on the slate, leaving him as the most positive leverage play available with a 10.8 mark in the category. Building lineups with all three of our positively leveraged highly optimal plays should create a strong foundation for DraftKings lineups tonight.

The same is true on the FanDuel slate. Bridges lands in the optimal lineup in 19.3% of simulated slates, though that mark sits 11th on the site. He has eligibility at only the small forward position on the blue site, which clips his wings slightly. Bridges has a 22.5% boom score probability and a 40.8 median FanDuel points projection, he is still an excellent option despite the lack of flexibility. That may be a factor in keeping his public ownership low, in fact, Bridge is projected for just eight percent popularity on the site tonight, leaving him with an 11.3 leverage score that ranks fourth on the site. There is an excellent opportunity in getting to additional shares of the Hornets’ forward tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.