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NBA Optimal Lineups Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Dejounte Murray | Monday, Nov. 22

Terry McBride

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Monday lines up a loaded list of games that should create a fun slate of high-scoring NBA DFS action. With 10 games on the slate, and the final three of the evening all carrying totals of 221 or 221.5, the evening is going to require gamers to be involved for the long haul before the standings are decided. The three highly totaled late games offer numerous options for raw NBA DFS point-scoring upside as well as value, but there are options from the first game of the evening through the final tip of the night, making this an excellent slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With 10 games on the slate, the focus is on the top overall plays on the board. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

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These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Anthony Edwards: DraftKings — $7,400 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $7,900 — SF/SG

Anthony Edwards has been a point-scoring dynamo through the first 16 games of his season. He has produced a 22.5-point scoring average with 6.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 35.7 minutes per game to this point in the season, with the latter marks representing a 16% assist rate and 7.8% rebounding share. Edwards has a 53.7% true shooting percentage that could conceivably climb, making his scoring upside even more massive. Edwards does not cost what he should, and the public is trailing the play on one site, while his efficient ownership remains firmly playable on the other.

Edwards comes in with a 17.4% optimal lineup rate on the DraftKings slate, placing him at the top of the board among players at all positions. He has flexibility between the shooting guard and small forward positions, giving him the ability to land in five different positions in a lineup. Edwards has a 22.5% public popularity projection that leaves him at a -5.1 leverage score, but his optimal rate and his 25.8% boom score probability both suggest that he can be rostered at least with the field, if not beyond it. Edwards has a 38.3-point median projection and his boom score probability ranks fifth overall on the site.

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On FanDuel Edwards maintains the same positional flexibility between small forward and shooting guard, but he dips slightly in optimal lineup probability. Edwards is the eighth-ranked player at any position on the blue site, coming in with a 15.8% probability that lands fourth among small forwards and fifth among eligible shooting guards, with most of the players on that list capable of slotting into multiple positions. Edwards has a targetable 2.7 leverage score and a 36.7-point median projection. He is projected to be owned by just 13.1% of the field, meaning the public is well behind the curve on the play, giving added appeal to the raw point-scoring upside. With leverage in tow and plenty of ability to roster the player in combination with both values and star-caliber plays, Edwards lands as a clear top option from his salary tier on this site as well.


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Dejounte Murray: DraftKings — $4,800 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $5,100 — SF/PF

Dejounte Murray has seen his excellent play in the first portion of the season elevate his price tag well beyond the $9,000 mark in all situations in recent slates. Murray has shown little sign of bumping his head on the salary ceiling to this point. He is averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute on 25.1% usage, up from the 1.11 on 23.1% that he provided last year. Murray has a 32.4% assist percentage and an 11% rebounding share this season, but the amazing thing is that he has produced to this level while posting just a 49.7% true shooting percentage. While the upside may not come to fruition tonight, Murray has produced capably at this salary range with regularity, and he has a strong chance of being a valuable spend-up option on both sites again tonight.

On the FanDuel slate, Murray ranks 26th with a 10.8% optimal lineup rate, which may not seem great on the surface. When filtering to point guard-eligible players, however, Murray jumps to the eighth-highest spot and he is the only one who lands with positive leverage. It is the lack of public ownership that has the most appeal, Murray has an outstanding 5.5 leverage score against just 5.3% public ownership. The average projected ownership for the seven point guard-eligible players above him comes in at 16.6%. Murray is excellent for lineup differentiation where affordable. He comes in with a 43.9-point median projection that also outpaces everyone ranked above him at the position. His 15.5% boom score probability is highly playable as well, though it is reflective of the high salary. Murray is a strong play from near the top of the salary spectrum on this slate.

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On DraftKings he is a more outstanding option. He is eligible only at the point guard position on the site, and he costs $9,200, but his optimal lineup rate leaps to seventh-best overall at 13.6% on the site. Murray retains his positive leverage across the industry, only 10.3% of the DraftKings public is projected to be rostering the player this evening, leaving him with a strong 3.3 leverage score. He has a 44.9-point median projection that is one of the leading marks on the entire slate, and his 21.4% boom score probability looks too good to miss. He should be rostered aggressively, and well in excess of the field’s projected mark unless the probability numbers change as lock approaches. Even if his leverage gap closes, Murray is a strong option for raw NBA DFS point-scoring, assuming one has the money to pay for him in that circumstance.

Tobias Harris: DraftKings — $8,100 — PF | FanDuel — $7,500 — PF/SF

Editor’s Note: Tobias Harris not expected to play tonight.

The 76ers are on the road in California to face the Kings in one of the slate’s three nightcap games. This game has a slate-high 221.5 total and a relatively close point spread that sees the hometown Kings favored by 2. With the other two late games carrying similar totals but more broadly separated point spreads, this could be the contest to focus on for quality NBA DFS upside. Tobias Harris stands out as a strong mid-range upside play on both sites. Harris comes in with a sturdy 1.11 fantasy points per minute, which compare favorably to the 1.12 he posted across all situations last year on the surface. Harris is doing less with more usage this season, however. Last year’s marks came with a 23.7% usage rate, while he has seen an uptick to 27% this season, with the absence of Ben Simmons creating additional requirements in the offense. Harris has contributed a 57.6% true shooting percentage with an excellent 21.1% assist rate and 12.5% rebounding percentage. He is slated for a 34.1-minute night and expectations should be relatively high for slate-relevant production.

On the DraftKings slate, Harris lands third from the top, appearing in the optimal lineup in 14.8% of simulated slates. He slots in at only the power forward spot and he is more expensive on this site than he falls across town, but the cost and lack of flexibility barely impact the quality of the play. Harris stands out with a 40.9-point median projection and he is carrying a 24.8% boom score probability that lands seventh overall on the site. Harris’ best quality on the slate is his standout leverage score, which comes in at a 6.8, with his optimal rates far outpacing his lowly eight percent ownership projection in the early afternoon. Harris looks like a top-notch play on the DraftKings slate this evening.

Harris picks up small forward eligibility on the FanDuel slate, giving him impressive flexibility and bolstering his optimal lineup rate. He lands in the optimal lineup in a slate-leading 25.7% of simulated slates for the blue site, making it easy to ignore the ownership that lands at a similarly high level. Harris still has a modicum of positive leverage, with a 0.60 in the category. That mark is likely to evaporate as lock approaches, but it is still likely to be worthwhile to muscle up on the Harris shares and get well beyond the field’s established mark of 25.1%. Harris is carrying a 39.4-point median projection and a 32.2% boom score probability. The latter mark ranks second among players at any position on the slate, falling short of Al Horford’s probability by just 0.1 percentage points. Harris is an excellent forward play on both sites tonight.

Eric MacPherson’s NBA DFS Building Blocks also touches on Harris tonight, as well as some of his other favorite daily fantasy basketball plays for tonight’s slate.


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View our FanDuel ownership, our DraftKings NBA ownership projections and our Yahoo! ownership projections. Looking for more DFS NBA news and the best NBA DFS tools? Check out our daily fantasy sports rankings NBA for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA daily projections. Our NBA projections FanDuel are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. We also have DraftKings rankings, Yahoo! NBA rankings and FanDuel NBA rankings for today's slate.

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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